12/12 Game Thread: St. Francis (PA) vs. St. Bonaventure

BonaCommenter

Well-known member
Nov 25, 2019
306
404
Team
St. Bonaventure
It's only Tuesday and COVID can cancel a game an hour before tip-off, but screw it, I'm calling my shot by starting this thread. Since Siena was too chicken to play us this year, this is the 2020 Franciscan Cup, as far as I'm concerned.

We honestly might know more about what the Red Flash will look like than us, considering they will have played 5 games before we play 1 and we have guys like Adaway and Roberts who have never played a second for the Bonnies (even though they are highly touted). In fact, tonight at 7 p.m. Olean Standard Time, St. Francis will play at Mount St. Mary's in their conference opener. Here's the link to watch (according to Twitter): http://necfrontrow.com/schools/SFPA

You may have heard St. Francis started the season off nicely with an 80-70 win over Pittsburgh. Since then, it's been very tough for them. They've lost by 15 at home to UMBC, 23 at Virginia and 24 at Liberty. Tuesday night's game at The Mount will probably be the best indicator of what kind of team we will see in the RC. SFPA is supposed to win the NEC, so I can't believe they are as bad as losing by 24 to the Fighting Evangelicals, but their one win has been looking more and more like an aberration. Still, it was Pitt's first game and this will be our first game.

What hasn't helped our Franciscan brethren is they've been without Ramiir Dixon-Conover for the last few games. It's unclear as of now if he'll be ready for MSM, but I would guess if it's a coin toss tonight, he'll probably be ready for our game in 4 days. Small sample size, but he averaged 13.5 PPG, 4 RPG/APG and 3 steals per game. The numbers don't make it look like he's at the same level of Lofton, but that could be a fun matchup at PG.

Osun will likely be matched up against St. Francis's most consistent player in all four games: center Mark Flagg. 12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, not an outside threat, so hopefully that reduces the risk of Osun getting in foul trouble. Flagg is paired up down low with Myles Thompson, who's also averaging around 10 and 5. Bryce Laskey and Maxwell Land have also been fairly consistent scoring threats at the 2 and 3.

Looking at That Nerd KenPom, the best metrics for the Red Flash have been three-point defense (63rd in the country) and steal percentage on defense (98th). Dixon-Conover had 4 steals against Pitt, so like I said, it'll be huge to see if he plays and how healthy he is. Slightly faster tempo than what we are at from last year, but still around the national average. They are also towards the bottom (in the 280s nationally) in two-point defense and block percentage, so that tells me we need to attack the rim on offense, especially with Schmidt's offensive scheme likely going to result in some growing pains and constipation from three.

All of this is to say KenPom has this scored as an 80-65 win for the Good Guys and only a 9% chance of a St. Francis win. I don't know how much home court advantage is tweaked this season, since the RC will obviously be empty. We can certainly lose since they will have already played 5 games and we haven't played 1, but it would be a disaster if that happens. I don't see the talent where St. Francis can get past us, with their best players just seeming like lesser versions of our counterparts at their position. They're mediocre shooting the 3, which is usually a good recipe for a road team winning in the RC. Give me the Bonnies ML, but -15 would be a tough task in our opener in this screwy year. Patience may be needed out of us, since I don't know what the precedent is for a team starting a season this late.

Damn, I did not think I would write that much about the Red Flash, but I guess I'm just happy to look at KenPom numbers over COVID numbers for once.
 
Last edited:

Community Bank 3Pt Tee

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2019
139
276
Team
St. Bonaventure
Hallelujah! Although I would have preferred you give us a bonaball1, deeply insightful hot take such as "Our guys will be ready. I imagine a lot of scoring. This is their time, it's only the beginning" - this will do, too.

I was a little nervous about it being the first game, not only for the rust factor that you allude to, but also for reasons of our cursed opening games the last 3 years. Then, I realized I couldn't remember if we had won our opener in 2016-17, so I looked it up. It just so happens we did, against- who else, St Francis of PA. I take that as a sign that we will get back on our openers track with them.

I'm excited to see a lot of things this year, but a few stick out. Dom and WInston/Wunston are chief among them (aside from the obvious wonder about all the newcomers). Will Winston hone in on his explosiveness and combine it with control to consistently score within the flow of the game? Will he (and Vasquez) be able to at least look like they sort of know how to play defense? Will Dom's notable progress from year 1 to 2 continue to expand into year 3, with a large leap forward? Will that include more confidence to fire away from deep, no matter how many of the first few drop- and drive to the hole, strong, consistently?

Either way. First game or not, unanswered questions and all- this is St Francis PA of the NEC. We shouldn't lose this game, and there's few excuses that could justify it. Unless BonaCommenter's boy Matt Flagg is related to Randall, and works some black magic on us, I'm looking forward to FINALLY getting back into the groove and breaking the curse of game 1.
 

Jive36

Active member
Nov 20, 2019
119
200
Team
St. Bonaventure
I would have been a legacy at SFA and it was in the final 2 for me when deciding which school to go to. I remember going to basketball camp at SFA back when Rob Krimmel was a counselor and averaging 10ppg, not pacing the sidelines as Head Coach.

SFA lost it's three starters to graduation in the offseason, pretty much their whole backcourt. Guards Braxton and Blackmon were the SFA equivalent of Adams and Mobley. The fact SFA came out of the gates hot against Pittsburgh was a bit of a surprise but my buddy with Pitt season tickets (in a Covid year ha) says Pitt is still a year away from being a year away.

The Bonnies should absolutely smoke SFA even if we come out a little slow. My biggest hope for this game is we avoid injuries and play solid defense. I could easily see us shutting out SFA for 4 minute periods at a time if we come out sharp. If we don't it could be closer than were would like. I think at the end of the day the Bonnies are on the upswing of their 4 year cycle and the Red Flash are on the downswing.
 

Bona03

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2019
172
273
Team
St. Bonaventure
The way this team has started out of the gate the last few years there will always be concern on my end.
 

Citizen X

Active member
Dec 29, 2019
144
173
Team
St. Bonaventure
After getting screwed out of $33 to sign up for a completely worthless month of FloSports, I have finally worked up enough animal spirits to spring for $5.99 for a month of ESPN+. Let's hope that virus doesn't fuck things up again and the Bonnies are as good as we're all hoping. I am ready for some Bona basketball!
 

Bona03

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2019
172
273
Team
St. Bonaventure
I hear that, but we are basically healthy right? That is a big difference from past years.
True, we dont have any known injuries right now but the fact that we havent played any games and many out there have had a handful, we are at a disadvantage.

Citizen, ESPN+ is great if you like college hoops. There are hundreds of games on per week and its well worth the 5.99. They have other sports throughout the year and you have access to the 30 for 30 library.
 

Bonafanatic

Active member
Dec 29, 2019
147
208
Team
St. Bonaventure
The way this team has started out of the gate the last few years there will always be concern on my end.
They could be starting the season against walsh hs jv backup squad and I’d still be nervous the way Schmidt’s teams have started the past few years.
 

Bonafanatic

Active member
Dec 29, 2019
147
208
Team
St. Bonaventure
True, we dont have any known injuries right now but the fact that we havent played any games and many out there have had a handful, we are at a disadvantage.

Citizen, ESPN+ is great if you like college hoops. There are hundreds of games on per week and its well worth the 5.99. They have other sports throughout the year and you have access to the 30 for 30 library.
It’s basically required for any college hoops fan. I do the annual subscription for $50. There’s enough decent content there to justify it year round.
 

Citizen X

Active member
Dec 29, 2019
144
173
Team
St. Bonaventure
Sorry, SBUnfurled, but I haven't been paying attention to basketball for a while. What is the U-Rank meter and how is it computed and by whom? Also, I take it you're expecting Adaway to start, which wouldn't surprise me. Any guesses as to the first 3 we see off the bench?
 

SBUnfurled

Active member
Nov 16, 2019
113
154
Team
St. Bonaventure
Sorry, SBUnfurled, but I haven't been paying attention to basketball for a while. What is the U-Rank meter and how is it computed and by whom? Also, I take it you're expecting Adaway to start, which wouldn't surprise me. Any guesses as to the first 3 we see off the bench?

It's a 0-10 scale I made for graphics like these. I had something similar last year for player picture sizes, but wanted to refine it and show the actual rating this season. It's based on a lot of advanced metrics (Offensive Rating, Offensive Efficiency, Usage, Minute %, Tempo, Strength of Schedule, Off. Box Plus/Minus, Def. Box Plus/Minus, Def. PORPAG, etc.).

I think the 4-spot is the only starting position that's up in the air right now, but I'd give Adaway the edge over Winston based on both what I've heard and also him being named a captain.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Citizen X

BonaCommenter

Well-known member
Nov 25, 2019
306
404
Team
St. Bonaventure
Good game so far, can't believe Winston dunked over the dragon for St. Francis.

Shit sorry, I dropped acid after hearing the game got canceled.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bonafanatic

Bona03

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2019
172
273
Team
St. Bonaventure
Well, maybe Tuesday we can finally get a taste