BonaCommenter
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It's only Tuesday and COVID can cancel a game an hour before tip-off, but screw it, I'm calling my shot by starting this thread. Since Siena was too chicken to play us this year, this is the 2020 Franciscan Cup, as far as I'm concerned.
We honestly might know more about what the Red Flash will look like than us, considering they will have played 5 games before we play 1 and we have guys like Adaway and Roberts who have never played a second for the Bonnies (even though they are highly touted). In fact, tonight at 7 p.m. Olean Standard Time, St. Francis will play at Mount St. Mary's in their conference opener. Here's the link to watch (according to Twitter): http://necfrontrow.com/schools/SFPA
You may have heard St. Francis started the season off nicely with an 80-70 win over Pittsburgh. Since then, it's been very tough for them. They've lost by 15 at home to UMBC, 23 at Virginia and 24 at Liberty. Tuesday night's game at The Mount will probably be the best indicator of what kind of team we will see in the RC. SFPA is supposed to win the NEC, so I can't believe they are as bad as losing by 24 to the Fighting Evangelicals, but their one win has been looking more and more like an aberration. Still, it was Pitt's first game and this will be our first game.
What hasn't helped our Franciscan brethren is they've been without Ramiir Dixon-Conover for the last few games. It's unclear as of now if he'll be ready for MSM, but I would guess if it's a coin toss tonight, he'll probably be ready for our game in 4 days. Small sample size, but he averaged 13.5 PPG, 4 RPG/APG and 3 steals per game. The numbers don't make it look like he's at the same level of Lofton, but that could be a fun matchup at PG.
Osun will likely be matched up against St. Francis's most consistent player in all four games: center Mark Flagg. 12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, not an outside threat, so hopefully that reduces the risk of Osun getting in foul trouble. Flagg is paired up down low with Myles Thompson, who's also averaging around 10 and 5. Bryce Laskey and Maxwell Land have also been fairly consistent scoring threats at the 2 and 3.
Looking at That Nerd KenPom, the best metrics for the Red Flash have been three-point defense (63rd in the country) and steal percentage on defense (98th). Dixon-Conover had 4 steals against Pitt, so like I said, it'll be huge to see if he plays and how healthy he is. Slightly faster tempo than what we are at from last year, but still around the national average. They are also towards the bottom (in the 280s nationally) in two-point defense and block percentage, so that tells me we need to attack the rim on offense, especially with Schmidt's offensive scheme likely going to result in some growing pains and constipation from three.
All of this is to say KenPom has this scored as an 80-65 win for the Good Guys and only a 9% chance of a St. Francis win. I don't know how much home court advantage is tweaked this season, since the RC will obviously be empty. We can certainly lose since they will have already played 5 games and we haven't played 1, but it would be a disaster if that happens. I don't see the talent where St. Francis can get past us, with their best players just seeming like lesser versions of our counterparts at their position. They're mediocre shooting the 3, which is usually a good recipe for a road team winning in the RC. Give me the Bonnies ML, but -15 would be a tough task in our opener in this screwy year. Patience may be needed out of us, since I don't know what the precedent is for a team starting a season this late.
Damn, I did not think I would write that much about the Red Flash, but I guess I'm just happy to look at KenPom numbers over COVID numbers for once.
We honestly might know more about what the Red Flash will look like than us, considering they will have played 5 games before we play 1 and we have guys like Adaway and Roberts who have never played a second for the Bonnies (even though they are highly touted). In fact, tonight at 7 p.m. Olean Standard Time, St. Francis will play at Mount St. Mary's in their conference opener. Here's the link to watch (according to Twitter): http://necfrontrow.com/schools/SFPA
You may have heard St. Francis started the season off nicely with an 80-70 win over Pittsburgh. Since then, it's been very tough for them. They've lost by 15 at home to UMBC, 23 at Virginia and 24 at Liberty. Tuesday night's game at The Mount will probably be the best indicator of what kind of team we will see in the RC. SFPA is supposed to win the NEC, so I can't believe they are as bad as losing by 24 to the Fighting Evangelicals, but their one win has been looking more and more like an aberration. Still, it was Pitt's first game and this will be our first game.
What hasn't helped our Franciscan brethren is they've been without Ramiir Dixon-Conover for the last few games. It's unclear as of now if he'll be ready for MSM, but I would guess if it's a coin toss tonight, he'll probably be ready for our game in 4 days. Small sample size, but he averaged 13.5 PPG, 4 RPG/APG and 3 steals per game. The numbers don't make it look like he's at the same level of Lofton, but that could be a fun matchup at PG.
Osun will likely be matched up against St. Francis's most consistent player in all four games: center Mark Flagg. 12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, not an outside threat, so hopefully that reduces the risk of Osun getting in foul trouble. Flagg is paired up down low with Myles Thompson, who's also averaging around 10 and 5. Bryce Laskey and Maxwell Land have also been fairly consistent scoring threats at the 2 and 3.
Looking at That Nerd KenPom, the best metrics for the Red Flash have been three-point defense (63rd in the country) and steal percentage on defense (98th). Dixon-Conover had 4 steals against Pitt, so like I said, it'll be huge to see if he plays and how healthy he is. Slightly faster tempo than what we are at from last year, but still around the national average. They are also towards the bottom (in the 280s nationally) in two-point defense and block percentage, so that tells me we need to attack the rim on offense, especially with Schmidt's offensive scheme likely going to result in some growing pains and constipation from three.
All of this is to say KenPom has this scored as an 80-65 win for the Good Guys and only a 9% chance of a St. Francis win. I don't know how much home court advantage is tweaked this season, since the RC will obviously be empty. We can certainly lose since they will have already played 5 games and we haven't played 1, but it would be a disaster if that happens. I don't see the talent where St. Francis can get past us, with their best players just seeming like lesser versions of our counterparts at their position. They're mediocre shooting the 3, which is usually a good recipe for a road team winning in the RC. Give me the Bonnies ML, but -15 would be a tough task in our opener in this screwy year. Patience may be needed out of us, since I don't know what the precedent is for a team starting a season this late.
Damn, I did not think I would write that much about the Red Flash, but I guess I'm just happy to look at KenPom numbers over COVID numbers for once.
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