We’re getting there guys. The NCAA Tournament is always a ton of fun (for those who make it), but the Atlantic 10 is in danger of getting just 1 or 2 teams in this year. From the way this season’s been going, anyone could win the Atlantic 10 Tournament and get in, and anyone on the bubble could miss the Big Dance at this point. There is still a lot of basketball to be played, but here’s a look at who has got a fighting chance right now. Check out my Daily Bracketology posts to see where the rest of the league lines up as well.
Locks
None
No team in the Atlantic 10 is a lock for the NCAA Tournament at this point, which is kind of typical. Usually at this point in the season, we’d hope to see one lock, but at this point, no one is definitely going to make the tourney.
Probable
Dayton Flyers
5 Best Wins: vs. Rhode Island, @St. Bonaventure, @Alabama, vs. Richmond, vs. Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: None
Overall Projection: 10 seed
I would say, at 15-4, Dayton is very close to being considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but the Flyers’ lack of great wins is kind of holding them back. I’d consider moving this team a bit higher, maybe even a 9, but Dayton still has a lot to prove. The Flyers still have some tough road games to finish the season and two dates with the VCU Rams. Unless Dayton really blows up, they’re going to go dancing. The Flyers could get as high as an 8 or 9 seed in my book, that kind of seems like the ceiling given the strength of the league.
Bubble
Rhode Island Rams
5 Best Wins: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Belmont, vs. Massachusetts, vs. Saint Joseph’s, vs. Old Dominion
Bad Losses: vs. La Salle
Overall Projection: 12 Seed, Last 4 In
If you’re wondering why Rhode Island isn’t probable at this point, look at the quality of wins after that Cincinnati win. Yeah, there’s not a ton to show for. The Rams have challenged themselves for sure and haven’t had any catastrophic losses, which is good, but this team has underperformed nonetheless. If Rhode Island had stole a road win over Providence, Houston, or Valparaiso, it’s a bit higher at this point. To get an at-large bid, this team’s going to have to work a bit harder. This team is probably going to have to win home games against VCU and Dayton, otherwise, I really don’t see enough quality opportunities for wins. I like Rhode Island’s chances at the end of the day, but just know that the Rams are by no means a lock for this year’s tourney.
VCU Rams
5 Best Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee, vs. Princeton, vs. La Salle, @George Mason, vs. St. John’s
Bad Losses: @Fordham, vs. Georgia Tech
Overall Projection: 12 Seed, Last 4 In
Again, at this point in the season, these 5 best wins really aren’t that great for VCU. Yeah, a win over Middle Tennessee is actually a really good win, but after that, do any of these victories really hold much merit at the end of the day? The road loss to Fordham is hurting this VCU team, and the Rams seem like they’re right on the bubble at this point. I think Will Wade’s team could go either way this season. A home win over Dayton this weekend would prove huge for this team. Lose that one, and the Rams might start to panic a little bit.
Work to Do
Richmond Spiders, La Salle Explorers, St. Bonaventure Bonnies
I wouldn’t say any of these teams are completely out of it just yet, but they’ve got work to do. Basically, it’d probably take one of these 3 teams winning the regular season to get in as an at-large. Even so, we saw that that doesn’t guarantee you a spot in the NCAA Tournament (St. Bonaventure last year). Bottom line: it’s going to be very difficult for any of these teams to sneak in, but stranger things have happened.
Better Luck Next Year
George Mason, Davidson, Fordham, George Washington, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph’s, Duquesne, Saint Louis
Sorry, guys. Better luck next year.
2 Comments
I think LaSalle was looking like a possible bubble team and passed the eye test in many game, but really needed a good win on is resume. Beating VCU on the road would have helped a lot, but they laid an egg. Then they went and lost to Penn.
It looks to me like it is a race to the bottom. We need a couple teams to step it up late. My best guess is that two will, and a third will win the tournament. We get three in.