This series takes a weekly look at which teams in the A-10 have the potential to be selected into the NCAA tournament. Updated every Tuesday morning, these projections are based off of non-conference and conference performances, as well as projections from the experts. 

KEY: NR (not ranked), N/A (not updated)

All projections based on if the season ended today.

Locks

Dayton Flyers (21-5, 11-3 A-10)

ESPN: 5 seed | CBS Sports: 6 seed | NBC Sports: 6 seed | SI.com: 6 seed

Despite two losses this week, Dayton remains in a strong position to make the NCAA tournament. Dropping games to St. Joe’s and St. Bonaventure may have not helped the Flyers’ resume, but it certainly doesn’t hurt them too much. Overall, they drop from a 4/5 seed to a 5/6 seed, but do have the opportunity to build their status back up with winnable games against Saint Louis and Rhode Island this week. Dayton fans should only be worried if, and only if, their team loses both of these matchups.

St. Joseph’s Hawks (22-5, 11-3 A10)

ESPN: 9 seed | CBS Sports: 8 seed | NBC Sports: 8 seed | SI.com: 9 seed

Isn’t it nice to finally have St. Joe’s in the lock column? After weeks of hanging on the bubble, the Hawks are looking great for a run at the tourney. Sure, a loss at Davidson this week wasn’t fantastic, but the Wildcats are a quality enough team that it won’t hurt SJU too much. If Phil Martelli’s team should win this week against UMass and Saint Louis, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump to a 7 seed in the projections.

VCU Rams (20-7, 12-2 A10)

ESPN: 9 seed | CBS Sports: 11 seed | NBC Sports: 10 seed | SI.com: 11 seed

VCU put together a solid week, first with a win over Rhode Island then adding a victory over heated rival Richmond. Yet despite currently holding the outright lead in the Atlantic 10, the Rams are not getting tons of respect from the experts. Still fans shouldn’t worry, VCU should make the tournament, and they’re talent makes them more than worthy. With a ranking this low (for the team’s body of work), dare I say there’s a little 2011 VCU in these guys? Only time will tell…

On the Bubble

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (18-7, 10-4 A10)

ESPN: First Four Out | CBS Sports: First Four Out | NBC Sports: Last Four In | SI.com: First Four Out

The Bonnies had a bi-polar week. After inexplicably dropping a game to La Salle, Bona responded with an upset win over Dayton, giving them their first win over a ranked team this season. This was huge for the Bonnies, who now are right on the bubble to make the NCAA tournament. If Jaylen Adams keeps up his pace of play (31-points vs. DAY), and the Bonnies can take care of business against Duquesne and UMass this week, they should at least be in the “Last Four In” category for all projections.

George Washington Colonials (20-7, 9-5 A10)

ESPN: First Four Out | CBS Sports: Last Four In | NBC Sports: First Four Out | SI.com: NR

GW did what they needed to do this week, getting wins over Duquesne then La Salle. This is key, given the Colonials were coming off a week with back-to-back losses. GW remains one of the most interesting bubble teams in the nation at this point. They have two very quality victories over then #6 Virginia (a GREAT win) and at VCU. However, the Colonials have also dropped games against DePaul and Saint Louis, two very subpar teams. Judge for yourself based on the experts, but if the season ended today, it is likely they wouldn’t make the tourney. Wins over Richmond and VCU this week would put them back on the right side of the bubble.