This series takes a weekly look at which teams in the A10 have the potential to be selected into the NCAA tournament. Updated every Tuesday morning, these projections are based off of non-conference and conference performances, as well as projections from the experts.
KEY: NR (not ranked), N/A (not updated)
All projections based on if the season ended today.
Locks
Dayton Flyers (16-3, 6-1 A10)
ESPN: 7 seed | CBS Sports: 5 seed | NBC Sports: 6 seed | SI.com: 5 seed
Dayton picked up two solid wins this week with victories at St. Bonaventure and Fordham. Considering the fact that the Flyers are on a four-game win streak, they’re trend is upwards. UD has also likely reached the point where the damage of their loss to La Salle has been vacated. Look for the Flyers to get easy wins over SLU and La Salle when they play them this next week. A slip-up against either of the these teams would be a major step in the wrong direction if Dayton wants to remain a lock for the tourney.
VCU Rams (15-5, 7-0 A10)
ESPN: 11 seed | CBS Sports: 12 seed | NBC Sports: 9 seed | SI.com: 10 seed
Despite another solid (and undefeated) week of A10 play, VCU still isn’t getting the respect that many think they deserve. Having won their last ten straight, the Rams are currently sit atop the lead for the conference. It would be hard pressed to say that George Washington is a better team than VCU right now, but still the Colonials have favor in the bracket projections. If Will Wade and co. are able to beat Davidson this week, they should be above GW in the brackets of all experts. Again, were the season to end today, VCU would be a fantastic upset pick in a 5-12 or 6-11 game.
George Washington Colonials (15-4, 4-2 A10)
ESPN: 10 seed | CBS Sports: 10 seed | NBC Sports: 11 seed | SI.com: 10 seed
GW picked up a solid win over URI this week that will do a little bit to solidify their spot in the tournament. The Colonials have their early season win over Virginia to hang their hat on, but they still can’t afford to pull some major losses in the latter stretch of the season. Technically, this team could afford a loss to Richmond this week but their game against George Mason is close to a must-win. I still like GW as a lock, as do all of the experts.
On the Bubble
St. Joseph’s Hawks (14-3, 4-1 A10)
ESPN: First Four Out | CBS Sports: Last Four In | NBC Sports: Last Four In | SI.com: First Four Out
If you read this series, you’ll notice that there has been a theme over the past couple weeks for St. Joe’s: maintain the status quo. So far, the Hawks have done just that. Wins over Penn and La Salle may not have done much for SJU’s resume, but it keeps them very much in the conversation for an NCAA tournament berth. Matchups this week against Rhode Island and UMass may not be statement games, but my hunch is if St. Joe’s can emerge victorious from both there will be enough shake-ups in the bottom of the bracket to render the Hawks a spot in next week’s rankings. C’mon boys, we’re cheering for you.
Outside Looking In
St. Bonaventure Bonnies (12-6, 4-3 A10)
ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: NR
This was not a good week for St. Bona. Sure, losses to Dayton and VCU are nothing to be ashamed of, but they were very good opportunities for the Bonnies to legitimize themselves in the NCAA tournament conversation. Instead, they are now on the outside looking in and face the danger of falling off the tournament watch all together. The Bonnies only have one game this week, and it’s against Richmond. If St. Bona wants to remain in this conversation at all, they need a win over the Spiders.
Richmond Spiders (10-8, 2-3 A10)
ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: NR
Richmond is on the edge of falling out of the tourney conversation as well. The Spiders are going to need wins over George Washington and St. Bonaventure to get them back to bubble status, and even that might not be enough. The win over then #14 California this season is keeping them on this list for now, but if they don’t get at least one big win this week, they’re likely out for good.
Davidson Wildcats (12-6, 3-3 A10)
ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: NR
Earlier last week came an article from ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi that called Davidson’s then 11-6 record as “comically inflated”. The reality is, Lunardi is right. Minus a win over Richmond last night, the Wildcats have lost every game against top-100 KenPom opponents, and most of them by a fair margin. Many might object to having Davidson in these rankings at all, but they won’t remain here next week if they don’t snag a victory over VCU. Luckily for head coach Bob McKillop, it appears as if Jack Gibbs will be sticking around for another year.
