Bonnies at #7 Dayton (Wed. Jan 22, 7:00, CBS Sports)

Jive36 said:
I think Carpenter has showed some range, if he sticks around I would love to see a Lofton, Welch/Vasquez, Winston/Bobby, Carpenter, OO lineup. Imagine trying to pass against that group when they are playing a matchup zone and living in passing lanes.

My memory is not great so can anyone help me out with an example of a Schmidt player that took a starting spot away from an established starter? The only examples might be Mosley and Kloof, or Ogo and Eleby back in the beginning. For the most part it has been a wait your turn then take over when the guy ahead of you graduates. If Carpenter is to stay and play solid minutes he is going to need to do that to either OO or Bobby/Winston.
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Why can't Carpenter be turned into a power forward? There's nothing saying he has to split time with OO. If he develops they can share the floor. We're desperately lacking bigs. I'd love for the Bonnies to finally trot out a lineup that doesn't consist of 4 guys who are pretty much guards and 1 skinny forward/center type with a backup who has no experience because that 1 guy plays 33 minutes a game. And maybe it's not Carpenter, it could be anyone with size. Let's get a pair of bigs that can play on the court together. And add in another forward too. Our best new guy - English - is yet another guard. Eventually you need size and length, especially if this team gets a chance to compete against the kind of schools we think they should be in the next couple of seasons.
 
brownindians85 said:
Why can't Carpenter be turned into a power forward? There's nothing saying he has to split time with OO. If he develops they can share the floor. We're desperately lacking bigs. I'd love for the Bonnies to finally trot out a lineup that doesn't consist of 4 guys who are pretty much guards and 1 skinny forward/center type with a backup who has no experience because that 1 guy plays 33 minutes a game. And maybe it's not Carpenter, it could be anyone with size. Let's get a pair of bigs that can play on the court together. And add in another forward too. Our best new guy - English - is yet another guard. Eventually you need size and length, especially if this team gets a chance to compete against the kind of schools we think they should be in the next couple of seasons.
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I'm ok with getting Carpenter minutes at the 4 but then who are you taking out? Bobby or Winston? It just moves the question to another spot in the lineup.

Hypothetically, lets say we go get another big in the offseason that can back up OO so we can play Carpenter at the 4 in a timeshare with Bobby and move Winston to his natural position at the 3 which would give you a bunch of length and size in almost any lineup. Now what happens with Welch does he share minutes with Winston at the 3 and English/Vasquez share minutes at the 2. That becomes a lot of roster juggling to manage and Schmidt will ride the hot hand, which could cause problems.

I think its a good problem to have if we have a better backup to OO and can move 80% of Carpenter's minutes to the 4. I just think that until that backup for OO is on campus it isn't going to happen. Carpenter is a long term project that has shown flashes and hopefully we get to see him play consistent at some point but that might be a couple years away.

Also basketball has moved away from 2 bigs and 3 guards unless one of the bigs can shoot. SLU is the only A10 team that consistently plays a traditional lineup and thats because they have no shooting on the roster. There best bet is to play 90s era physical basketball. That is not the style the Schmidt plays and I don't see it changing anytime soon.
 
If we have
Jive36 said:
Now for my crazy post. I wrote above about are there any examples of players taking starting spots or significant roles away from an established guy, in respect to Carpenter. But what if Welch is the one in danger of losing his spot. Could we see Welch taking a back seat to English and Vasquez?

On a thread a couple weeks ago someone compared Vasquez to Posley, and I disagreed but thought he was more of a Mobley clone. I have thought alot about that while watching the last couple of games. English is much more of the Posley comp while I still believe Vasquez could be Mobley Jr. English has the bowling ball downhill drive thing that Posley was great at doing, he just needs to improve the old man around the rim game to get to the Posley level.

But if both English and Vasquez take a jump and are say 80% of Posley and Mobley next year how do you not get them 30+ minutes a night. That only leaves 20 minutes a game for Welch (assuming he doesn't make a jump which might be the crazy assumption). Or you play Welch at the 4 which is already super competitive with Winston/Bobby.

I mean its a great problem to have and I'm not giving up on what this group can do this year but after two big losses, its great to be able to look ahead and see so much potential.
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If we find ourselves in a situation where we have 4 guards who deserve 30 minutes a game, that will be a great problem to have.
 
Upon reflection, these last two losses don't bother me all that much other than they point out how far this team is from being great. Strategically, as far as this year is concerned, they have little or no effect. I think there was a consensus here that any post-season hopes relied on a Sunday victory in Brooklyn and for that to occur, a top 4 league finish was required. That is still true, and predicated on a victory over Rhode Island, is still possible. Let's all pray for 'Shoon.

However, it sure would be nice for this team to figure out a way to sneak into 3rd. That would give one other chance for another team to somehow beat Dayton in the tournament. I don't think Bona has much of a chance as constituted to beat Dayton under any circumstances, and my guess is Dayton will still be playing hard for seeding purposes.
 
Jive36 said:
I'm ok with getting Carpenter minutes at the 4 but then who are you taking out? Bobby or Winston? It just moves the question to another spot in the lineup.

Hypothetically, lets say we go get another big in the offseason that can back up OO so we can play Carpenter at the 4 in a timeshare with Bobby and move Winston to his natural position at the 3 which would give you a bunch of length and size in almost any lineup. Now what happens with Welch does he share minutes with Winston at the 3 and English/Vasquez share minutes at the 2. That becomes a lot of roster juggling to manage and Schmidt will ride the hot hand, which could cause problems.

I think its a good problem to have if we have a better backup to OO and can move 80% of Carpenter's minutes to the 4. I just think that until that backup for OO is on campus it isn't going to happen. Carpenter is a long term project that has shown flashes and hopefully we get to see him play consistent at some point but that might be a couple years away.

Also basketball has moved away from 2 bigs and 3 guards unless one of the bigs can shoot. SLU is the only A10 team that consistently plays a traditional lineup and thats because they have no shooting on the roster. There best bet is to play 90s era physical basketball. That is not the style the Schmidt plays and I don't see it changing anytime soon.
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I don't think you have to take either one of them out. Any of the three of them can develop a mid-range jumper - it's a glorified free throw, which our guys are already good at. Right now we are either seeing a drive or dump for a layup, that is moderately successful if it's Kyle, English, or OO, or we shoot 3's, and that has been less than spectacular save for a handful of games. I was watching a Big Ten game the other night and the color guy lamented the loss of the mid-range game. Also, that size can develop a nice zone D. It's crazy, we have the bodies to play a lengthy zone, yet we have a coach that insists on putting 3 or 4 guards in and playing M2M, which everyone saw against VCU, and at about the 13 minute mark or so yesterday - and we were blitzkreig'd.

I guess I'd welcome the problem of having a lineup with size and 9-10 guys that can play. Play physical. Kyle and English can both drive and bang, dumping off to a choice of 6-8 forwards that are money from 16' just makes the offense that much more dangerous.

Another thought about the zone, we have good transition offense, and get more opportunities to see it when the zone creates turnovers.

I'm rambling now. I'm not a coach and the majority of us trust the HC to do the job, but the defensive schemes in the last two games, already undermanned, were mind-boggling. Especially after seeing a nice half of a half to start the game.

Watching this team shouldn't be a source of life frustration, lol.
 
You don't take anyone out and play with 6 that would sure be a nice advantage. If you are adding Carpenter at the 4 and keeping Bobby/Winston on the court then you are taking Welch off or English off.

You cant play zone if you are constantly playing in transition, you are stuck playing in transition if you don't make baskets. The 2 stretches in the last 2 games we were blitzed were when we couldn't make baskets on one end and forced into M2M with some cross matches. If you think the defensive schemes are lacking tell me how you are going to play zone and transition and give me an example of a team that does that well. Cuse even plays man off a miss when they play a team that likes to run.

We already have a team that has 9-10 guys that can play, we just don't see them play because Schmidt plays his guys big minutes and that isn't going to change under Schmidt's watch.

As far as the midrange game unfortunately math dictates the death of the midrange. How many guys do you think can make 16 footers at a 50% clip? Because thats what you need to do to be more efficient than a guy making 33% of his 3s. Now we haven't been hitting 33% from 3 the last two games but being undermanned explains that. The list of NBA guys that make over 50% from 15-19 feet and take more than 2 shots per game from that distance is D'Angelo Russell, Donovan Mitchell, Chris Paul, Malcolm Brogdon, Devin Booker and Josh Richardson. That is it and that is a pretty talented group. I love the Bonnies but I don't think we have anyone that is the caliber of mid range shooter as anyone in that group. Also none of those guys would I classify as a forward, 6'8 guys that can knock it down from 18 feet must just grow on trees.
 
res said:
Upon reflection, these last two losses don't bother me all that much other than they point out how far this team is from being great.
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This is the only thing bothering me, too, but I guess it's bothering me more than I thought it would. I figured in these last 2 games we'd get shellacked in one, but be at least semi-respectable in one of them. Not get boat raced like we did in both.

I think of 2017 and how we were a clear-cut step ahead of the middle of the pack teams, while being about a half step behind the top 4 teams that year. These last 2 games make it clear we're a ful step, if not more, behind the top teams. How we do Satuday with URI should tell us more about if Saturday against VCU was as bad as it looked, or was only half as bad as it looked, and just a perfect storm of shit going wrong.

Another way to say it is, if we're that full step behind, how capable are we really of making that stride between now and next year? That's the angst-producing question for me.
 
I think we're seeing the beginning of Carpenter passing Ikpeze in the rotation. Carpenter is way more athletic, and in the first half, I felt better (relatively speaking) when he was near Obi than Ikpeze. It's not a given that Osun is coming back on Saturday, although I really hope he does obviously. If Osun is out, maybe URI is the time to start Carpenter at center. He can stretch the floor and that could lead to getting Langevine in foul trouble. His length could also disrupt the flow of guards like Fatts and Dowtin.

I would have traded 25+ point asskickings against VCU/Dayton, if it meant we beat Rhody in the following game. We have always been fighting for the 3 seed with URI/DUQ/RICH/SLU. This is honestly the biggest game of the season so far, since it is enormous for tiebreakers. Of those four teams I mentioned, the only one we don't play at home at least once is SLU. That game's also the last of the season, so double byes may already be locked up. Even if you want to throw Davidson back in the double bye mix, we get them at home too.

Schmidt just needs the guys to mentally reset. Avery Johnson said it on the broadcast last night. We've only had one true home game since December 19th. The rest of the A10 schedule is pretty favorable for us, with most of the big games at home. Shit gets out of hand for 18-21 year olds sometimes (not even 22-23, we only have 1 senior). Hell, the Dukes (not missing their best player like us) lost the second half 47-17 against Rhody last night. While I've never bought the "Dukes are for real" hype, I don't think they are 30 points behind URI. Let these guys finally hit up the Hickey pasta bar a couple times and they'll be alright.
 
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Jive36 said:
I think we underestimate OO's gravity on offense. He doesn't put up huge point totals and does most of his work on put-backs and lobs.

The impact of OO on a defense and on our wings:
1. With OO in the lineup, the weak side defender still needs to cheat a step closer to the paint regardless if OO is posting up or screening in a pick and roll
2. This gives Welch and Co on the wing another half step of space. Teams with more length like VCU and Dayton that half step is already gone because they have a bunch of 6'7 dudes.
3. You take OO out of the equation and the weakside guy can almost play in deny positioning and can deflect any ball reversals. When the Bonnies try to swing the ball against that type of defense, either they are forced farther away from the basket or the pass is high/low and you cant simply catch and shoot.
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You saw Dayton throw the ball into the post then pass out to the perimeter, when the double team came. Sometimes the defender was able to close in and take the shot away, but Dayton was able to make an extra pass usually to wide open shooter.
But on whole I think the perimeter defense has been poor at times, guys dont close out on shooters quick enough or they get beat off the bounce to much. The later helps contribute the bugs getting into foul trouble.
 
Community Bank 3Pt Tee said:
This is the only thing bothering me, too, but I guess it's bothering me more than I thought it would. I figured in these last 2 games we'd get shellacked in one, but be at least semi-respectable in one of them. Not get boat raced like we did in both.

I think of 2017 and how we were a clear-cut step ahead of the middle of the pack teams, while being about a half step behind the top 4 teams that year. These last 2 games make it clear we're a ful step, if not more, behind the top teams. How we do Satuday with URI should tell us more about if Saturday against VCU was as bad as it looked, or was only half as bad as it looked, and just a perfect storm of shit going wrong.

Another way to say it is, if we're that full step behind, how capable are we really of making that stride between now and next year? That's the angst-producing question for me.
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This post took the words right out of my mouth. I said to my uncle (another SBU alum and avid hoops fan) last night, the 2020 Bonnies are eerily reminiscent of the 2017 team. Hoping this "pattern" sticks...

Coming off a year they ALMOST made the NCAA tourney (2016), in 2017 they pretty much beat everyone in conference they were supposed to beat and lost to all the powers, then 2018 they came into their own (Adams and Mobley emerged completely) and they made the NCAA's...

Now, 2019 they ALMOST made the tourney, coming within a Nelson Kaputo three pointer...2020 appears to be much of the same as '17 with the Putnam Science boys getting another strong year under their belt...hoping that next year can be a really special one again!

With all the above said, 2020 can still be special. Two road losses against the (probable) two best teams in the conference without Osun is nothing to be worried about. What worries me is Osun's health going forward -- it's obvious they need him to succeed. Correct me if I'm wrong, but have they won a single game this year in which he didn't play? I feel like they're win-less without him on the floor.
 
--Yes, the Bonnies had that amazing win over Rutgers without O.O., so it's possible.
--Glad to see others are as happy as I am to have witnessed Bob the Builder's career game. There is athleticism and confidence that will be a great future asset, but bear in mind that he did commit 2 fouls in 12 minutes. It's usually even more prolific: 8.8 per 40 minutes playing time.
--Agree with everybody that the Rhody game is critical. Oddsmakers at Team Rankings say Bona has nearly a 40% probability of winning. Other critical opportunities if we are to get the double bye are these:
--Davidson (46.6% win probability)
--Richmond (39.3%)
--Dukes at our place (48.4%)
--LaSalle in Philly (50.9%)
Beating SLU at Chaifetz is a lower probabilty (31.6%) than any of those.
 
ESPN matchup predictor gives us a 52% chance to win Saturday. That’s steadily down for about 60% give it take at this time last week.
 
Bill Russell said:
Does anyone here know who won MVP for the 1946 Tobacco Bowl?
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Based on clippings about the game, which Bona lost, if it was a Brown Indian probably Leo Haggerty or Phil Colella.

BR I had my interest piqued since I saw the user name and spent way too many minutes so far trying to solve the riddle.
 
TullyBonnie11 said:
Rutgers was without Shoon
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That's right! The following loss to Canisius took the wind out of my sails after the impressive Rutgers W. I forgot Osun wasn't in that game. Man, in hindsight, with Rutgers' season going to where it's gone since that game, that win is looking REALLY impressive now.
 
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