I decided to take a crack at this bracketology thing. It seemed like a pointless, tedious task, but why not kill a few hours at work during Champ Week, personally my favorite week of college basketball. Hell, maybe I’ll get good enough at this where I get on the bracket matrix. When I went through this, I had a hard time trying to figure out what matters more, the good wins or the bad losses? I ultimately thought the wins mattered more, especially how well you did in the Q1. If it was similar, then I went to see how teams did in the Q2. If both similar, then I compared the Q3 and Q4. Not sure if other bracketologists do the same, but my idea is that the Q1 matters the most. Moreover, I only really cared if teams won those Q1 games and didn’t really give the time of day to how many they played or how hard their schedules are. If you risk playing all those games and only win 3, then give 3 wins to your name. I mean, if your conference was nice enough to get you all those teams, then win those games and get in the tournament.
Anyway, here’s my first crack at it. I was probably wrong and made someone mad, but oh well. I’ll do better next time.
Here’s my update after 2 more teams clinched their auto-bids on March 10:
A few notes as I went through this:
- I think I have St. John’s lower than most. They are good, but if I’m looking at Q1, more teams won more than the Johnnies. The 10-0 Q2 is great.
- St. Mary’s is another one of those teams in that category. Awesome team that went 4-2 in the Q1, but I’m afraid that teams who had more will go above the Gaels.
- What is the world do you do with Memphis? 3 Q3 losses to go with the strong Q1/2. Wins matter more, but at one point I had them at an 11.
- New Mexico is interesting as they won the Mountain West, but their resume is not better than Utah State. If they lose early in the MW tournament, do they drop to the next/last four in?
- I don’t get how Texas is out in a lot of brackets, especially with 5 Q1 and 3 Q2 wins with no Q3/4 losses. I think they end up in Dayton for the First Four.
- Many think Cincinnati is out completely, but the resume isn’t that bad. It’s essentially the same as Xavier, and those two could flip. Bearcats are my first team out.
- VCU is interesting. The loss to Dayton last Friday was damning, and their resume is not one of the best, holding 2 Q1 wins and a stinky Q4 loss to Seton Hall. But the metrics LOVE them due to their ability to win almost every A10 game by 20 points. Right now, I think they are out and need the AQ, but could climb into a next four out if they win a game or two in D.C.
- My beloved Dayton Flyers climbed into the bubble, but I have a hard time thinking they would jump high enough over North Carolina and Cincinnati, who are both teams that the Flyers lost to. You would think that is a tiebreaker of sorts.
