Head Coach: Josh Schertz (1st Season)
Theme Song: Believe Me (feat. Drake) by Lil Wayne
Last Season: Parenting 101: never let your child use social media unsolicited.
Travis Ford went from a respected coach to an unmitigated disaster in one offseason. This team flat-out sucked. Going from perennial A10 contender to whatever last year was is unacceptable if you’re a Saint Louis fan. They did have some decent players who could’ve scraped together a .500 season, but no—it also doesn’t make matters better when Tim Dalger had to be dismissed from the program early in the year.
Yet, somehow, they managed to ruin Rhode Island’s season in the A10 tournament and give Duquesne a run for their money in the A10 tournament.
Ford was promptly dismissed after such an abysmal dropoff, but it wasn’t just because of how things went in his final year: ever since the Billikens won the A10 chip in 2019, Ford has come up short in expectations. Following that magical run, and excluding the pandemic, Ford won 21 games or more in the following years with some of the most talented teams he’s ever had.
Saint Louis rebounded with hiring Josh Schertz, the hottest commodity in the coaching carousel this offseason. He took the Indiana State Sycamores from a national joke to NIT runners-up in three seasons, barely missing out on an NCAA tournament bid. His talent influx of the program has most A10 minds agreeing that the Billikens are in a position to win now.
Arrivals: Isaiah Swope (Indiana State), Kalu Anya (Brown), Kobe Johnson (West Virginia), Josiah Dotzler (Creighton), Robbie Avila (Indiana State), AJ Casey (Miami), Amari McCrottty (F), Kilian Brockhoff (UC Santa Barbara), Nick Patton (F), Dylan Warlick (F), Max Pikaar (F)
Departures: Cian Medley (T), Bruce Zhang (T), Sincere Parker (T), Bradley Ezewiro (T), Djordje Curcic (T), Abou Magassa (T), Stef Van Bussel (T), Terrence Hargrove…jesus christ who didn’t leave????
Returnees: Gibson Jimerson*, Kellen Thames, Larry Hughes II
Potential Strengths: Saint Louis has a long track record of fantastic defensive teams: particularly during the early 2010’s under Rick Majerus and Jim Crews who took the Billikens to three straight NCAA tournaments. Travis Ford did keep it going for a bit despite severely underachieving. Now they undergo a major philosophy shift with Schertz, similar to what VCU did last season when they hired Ryan Odom.
Schertz’s idea of winning games comes off a quick-hitting offense: centered around running and shooting a ton of threes early and often. Last season, Indiana State ran the 13th most efficient offense in the nation simultaneously being the best two-point shooting team in the nation (59.8%), second in the country in free throw percentage (80.1%), 35th in adjusted tempo, and 11th in the nation for team three-point percentage (38.1%).
Two former Sycamores followed Schertz to the Lou: Isaiah Swope, Indiana State’s second-leading scorer from a season ago, and Robbie Avila, who recently cracked CBS’ top 100 players for the upcoming season. Swope is a tremendous shot-creator at 5’10 with excellent speed to get by any defender. Also being 5’10”, he’s got a ton of arch on his shot to avoid being blocked by taller defenders.
Avila is expected to be an A10 player of the year candidate right away, and rightfully so. Not only did he lead the Sycamores in points last year at 17.4 per game, but he was also second in rebounds (6.6), second in assists (4.1), led them in PER by almost three points (25.1), and overall plus/minus at a whopping +9. The big man can step out for a splash, shooting 39% from three last season which will give opposing teams headaches trying to defend the two-man game of Swope and Avila.
Schertz’s other portal imports are quite interesting this year: he’s taking chances on guys from the power conferences who saw low usage at their previous schools. Two names that fit the category include West Virginia transfer Kobe Johnson, Creighton stowaway Josiah Dotzler, and former Miami Hurricane AJ Casey. Dotzler is a very solid backup guard who did see limited action for the Blue Jays, though he did have some solid games that should have Billiken fans feel good about their bench.
Casey, a former top-100 recruit, saw very limited action in Coral Gables with the Hurricanes. That can change dropping down a level with more opportunities. From available tape, Casey does compete well around the rim for rebounds and has some shot-blocking potential. His transfer tape does suggest he’s athletic enough to run the floor which pays nicely into Schertz’s scheme.
Of these three, Johnson is the most interesting import because he did hold down a legitimate rotation spot in Morgantown. The Mountaineers were bad because they were blindsided by some comments made by Bob Huggins forcing a coaching change only a few weeks before the season began. At this level, Johnson is bigger than most off-guards at 6’3”, 210 pounds—Johnson has also been a net positive over his career on defense, accumulating a +1.1 over three seasons. The offense wasn’t there last season but I believe Schertz can change that.
Kalu Anya is more of a defensive specialist from what I have gathered. He provides solid size at 6’8”, 215 pounds, and harvested 7.4 rebounds per game last season in the Ivy League. Brown was second in the Ivy last year in offensive rebound rate (11.8% in league play) and was fifth in the conference in defensive rebounding rate at 22.4% in conference play. The shooting percentages are…something. Most of his numbers have dropped since his freshman season so I do wonder where he’s going to fit in all of this.
I’ve heard good things about freshman Max Pikaar early on. He’s a polished shooter from range at 6’11” and is mobile for a guy his size. Pikaar is going to play on this team, though volume remains to be seen—he did have a few posters in Saint Louis’ recent exhibition game. Of the freshman, Pikaar is perhaps the most talented in my opinion with the highest upside on the team.
Dylan Warlick will likely see the most time out of the gate. The Oklahoma native is one of the more intriguing prospects in the A10. Warlick was a rebounding machine in high school, averaging 11 boards a game as a senior with 20 points a game in a career that culminated in two Oklahoma state championships.
Of the guys who stayed, Kellen Thames and Larry Hughes Jr are going to fight to break into what will be a crowded guard rotation. I think Hughes has a higher ceiling given his improvements across the board last year. Thames is a little more limited in what he can do but he is probably better at raising a floor. UC Santa Barbara transfer Kilian Brockhoff will also have to break into this crowded lineup after shooting 38% last season from range in limited minutes.
Saint Louis has guys who can all shoot threes, who are encouraged to shoot them often, and will hoist at high volume. Winning will revolve around the two-man game between two of the best players in the league, paired with a supporting cast that provides support in lots of different ways. Remember the 2009 Orlando Magic? We’re going to get a similar vibe from these Billikens this season.
Potential Weaknesses: Obviously, saying that massive turnover is going to be an issue is like me telling you the sky is blue. They’ll have some adjusting to do early in the season. New coach, new players, new system, everything. Lots of guys are coming from places where they haven’t seen lots of minutes that will now be in roles where they need to produce.
A problem these guys will likely have that is similar to the one Loyola is going to have is who loses minutes for this team. One of the battles I alluded to earlier will likely be between Thames and Hughes Jr. Thames will likely see the floor early, but if Hughes Jr continues to show serious improvement, he’ll take away those minutes.
There is a world where these two can contribute equally off the bench. It will just come down to matchups and whoever is hot on that night for Schertz to make a decision.
The freshmen are also probably going to be battling for time, though Pikaar and Warlick do play different positions so they seem safe. Anya and Casey are probably going to share time because Schertz cannot play both together given their inability to space the floor. The only safe guys are Swope, Avila, and my X-factor (more down below).
My other caution here is the rim protection for this team. Schertz isn’t incapable of constructing a good defense, the Sycamores were 135th and 114th the last two seasons in adjusted defense. But what can be a bit scary is the lack of rim protection for this team. The Sycamores were one of the worst shot-blocking teams in the country last season, finishing 359th in block percentage on Kenpom.
Avila is a fantastic player and he can at least be a large body, but he’s not going to be sending shots five rows into the arena. Casey and Anya seem to have more shot-blocking chops from what I have concluded, and both can switch onto guards without losing their footing.
Seeing Casey in a role with more volume will certainly be interesting, so for now, the role of defensive captain favors Anya. As for Pikaar, his potential is certainly there but he’s going to be great a few years down the road. He’ll get spurts as a freshman before transitioning into a bigger role as he grows.
X-Factor: After leaving him off my all-conference predictions a season ago, Gibson Jimerson is my chosen decider this year for Saint Louis. He’s led the team in scoring the last three years on some wildly good shooting from range, shooting 39% from three in the last three seasons. This offense should be a match made in heaven for the sixth-year wing. With all the spacing and other distractions on offense, this opens things up for Jimerson to flourish for his final year. He’ll have plenty of clean looks and chances to drive lanes if he wishes, and once again maintain his status as a perennial scorer in this league.
Outlook: Schertz came in and built a contender in the blink of an eye. Undergoing a massive shift in philosophy for this program from defense to offense is perhaps the most important change he’ll make. His transfers present mystery with simultaneous excitement given their backgrounds. They’re going to make a push for the title right away, there is no reason for them not to do so with this group they’ve assembled. Most of these guys have played in the NCAA tournament or won heaps of games at their previous stops. Adjustments will take some time with all the new pieces, but don’t be surprised if Saint Louis is playing for the conference title in March.
