Head Coach: Frank Martin (35-27; 3rd season)
Theme Song: Mustang or Me by Megan Moroney
Last Season: Frank Martin led UMass to its most successful in a decade, the first 20-win season in Amherst since their 2014 NCAA tournament appearance. He had two players earn all-conference nods, and Rahsool Diggins won the Most Improved Player award, the first time a Minuteman won the award since Ricky Harris in 2007-2008. All this while clinching a double bye for the conference tournament.
UMass had a talented, rugged, and confident bunch that was perfect for Martin (I argued he had the most talented team in the league last season). With three double-figure scorers on the roster and a strong supporting cast, UMass exceeded all preseason expectations and clinched a top-four spot for the double-bye in the conference tournament. Only a team led by Frank Martin could go into Dayton and push the Flyers to the absolute limit—losing by four in an effort that could’ve gone to UMass had Diggins one of his 10 attempted threes.
Where UMass had issues plague them is one you see with uber-talented teams most times: they can’t play above inferior competition. While they would perform admirably in tough contests like the Dayton, as mentioned earlier, they’d randomly drop the ball to Rhode Island or La Salle on the road. In some instances, they’d barely escape against Davidson or Fordham—with the Fordham game coming down to Kyle Rose missing the open three for the win.
Regardless, it was still a big step in the right direction for the Minutemen to secure the double-bye, albeit by the skin of their teeth, as a sign of things to come for UMass. Their quarterfinal match against VCU says otherwise, as everything blew up in their face from the opening tip. UMass came out flat, going into halftime down 42-25, and Matt Cross being an absolute no-show.
Along with the announcement that UMass is leaving the A10 for the MAC in the name of football, this program’s offseason was decimated with another exodus of significant transfers. For the last season in the A10, UMass will likely just “go for the ride” until it’s time to head out.
Arrivals: Daniel Rivera (Bryant), Malek Abdelgowad (Murray State), Shahid Muhammad (J), Akil Watson (Arizona State), Lewis Walker (F), Luka Damjanac (F), Amadou Doumbia (F), Nate Guerengomba (F)
Departures: Matt Cross (T), Josh Cohen (T), Mathok Majok (T), Keon Thompson (T), Robert Davis Jr. (T)
Returnees: Rahsool Diggins, Daniel Hankins-Sanford, Jaylen Curry, Marqui Worthy, Tarique Foster, Jayden Ndijgue
Potential Strengths: Frank Martin’s teams never fail to impress with their personality or competitiveness; displaying toughness in every contest is a badge of honor his teams wear proudly, regardless of the personnel.
Daniel Hankins-Sanford epitomizes the kind of player that will excel under Martin’s coaching tutelage. He emerged on offense, though in a limited role, but was good around the basket: shooting just over 60% last season and knocking down 30% of his jumpers from three.
While 6.5 points and 5.3 rebounds don’t scream the first option, he potentially plays a fundamental role this season on offense. Hankins-Sanford’s physical tools also make him the ideal defender who can match opposing big men, switch onto guards or wings, and not get burned. There is a chance we could see him playing center on select occasions, a concept that could make it challenging to guard UMass on the perimeter.
Of course, the offense will be headlined by the guard duo of Rahsool Diggins and Jaylen Curry. In my estimation, these two are the second-best guard duo in the conference behind Reynolds and Brown at Saint Joe’s. The reigning most improved player and an all-freshman pick will drop buckets aplenty for the Minutemen in what could be an electrifying duo.
While Curry’s three-point shooting will improve as the season continues, the ball will be in his hands more often than not. Diggins is a smoother, more experienced option in the backcourt where UMass can go if they need a quick score. Both combined to average 4.3 assists per game last season, numbers that should see some decent upticks this season as the main facilitators.
Expect Jayden Ndjigue to also find himself in the role left by Keon Thompson, the third wheel of the outstanding guard trio who can contribute in all categories, especially playmaking and defense. His +2.6 DBPM should see him drawing some of the top guard assignments in the league while being hardnosed on the glass, pulling down 4.9 rebounds a game as a freshman. At 6’4”, he can match up with almost any tall guard/wing Martin wants to throw him on.
I neglected these two (Diggins and Curry) from my all-conference predictions, but I imagine they can be considered for spots on the all-conference teams.
When Martin arrived in Amherst, the center spot was fine. First, he had Wildens Leveque, a fantastic enforcer for a team with issues in the paint. Leveque was succeeded by Josh Cohen, who was the best incoming transfer in the A10 last year. With Cohen gone, the starting center role is up for grabs.
Shahid Muhammad is the most mature of the options. He spent a year at Seton Hall and was an adequate big at the Juco level. He set the single-season shot-blocking record at the College of Southern Idaho, recording 106 blocks (3.5 blocks per game) while averaging 5.9 points and 5.6 boards last season. He understands what he can do well and sticks to it.
The other is Malek Abdelgowad, a transfer from Murray State. Abdelgowad’s sample size is limited to 19 games in a backup role to Nick Ellington. However, I believe this is a long-term play because Abdelgowad will flourish in MAC play rather than A10 play. He is still an excellent backup to hold onto for this season, who adds more size underneath.
Akil Watson is the other choice for a significant role coming from Arizona State. Still, he has a similar concern to Abdelgowad: his sample size is too small to accurately judge what he can do. Freshman big Amadou Doumbia should also see some time in the center platoon, though he could be a bit raw coming out of the gates.
Of the four freshmen being brought in, Nate Guerengomba looks the most ready for the season’s beginning. He’ll play behind outstanding guards who will mentor him as the season progresses. Guerengomba’s playmaking will be helpful to UMass, especially if they run an up-tempo style emphasizing speed and finishing at the rim.
There is reason to be excited about UMass this season. They’ve got some good returners who will improve individually, perhaps forcing a new style of play for this team with new headliners.
Potential Weaknesses: I have so many questions about this team from a mental standpoint because of what’s happening outside the lines of play. While UMass Hockey is by far their best sport, basketball has every reason to be held as a priority over the non-existent football team.
The University told the basketball team they’re taking a backseat and putting football first. For context, UMass football has been in Division One for only a few years and has been mediocre at best. Since returning to Division One in 2012, UMass football has won 25 games and lost 115 games (and probably counting)—so what exactly is the appeal?
I understand the logic of pouring all your resources into football because it has the highest return on investment, but it won’t work at a school like UMass. Just look at Temple and how they destroyed their program, which is one of the winningest basketball programs ever. Only some midmajor schools can run a football program, like Alabama, Georgia, Penn State, or any big-time programs in the SEC or the Big 10—UMass is not one of them.
To round out my point, the grey cloud of the university telling Basketball, “We don’t need you as much,” could affect how this team performs. Could they win in a fashion to thumb their nose at the administration? It’s entirely possible; remember, Frank Martin achieved a Final Four appearance out of nowhere, which proves my prediction wrong. However, given this offseason and where UMass is going in their immediate future in less than 12 months, I’m not entirely sure what to expect from this group.
Flagging Cohen and Cross’s losses are obvious concerns, but a trio of Diggins, Curry, and Hankins-Sanford is enough to get their heads above water. What is somewhat frightening is their situation at the center.
Muhammad will win the starting job based on his experience, but he can only produce so much outside of defense and rebounding. If he does get into foul trouble, his backups’ abilities off the bench are undoubtedly questionable.
To reiterate, Abdelgowad and Watson have limited samples to make firm statements on how they can back Muhammad. Seeing Hankins-Sanford at the five isn’t something to rule out, especially if the centers get into foul trouble; I wonder how they’ll defend opposing centers like Jalen Haynes or Justice Ajogbor.
X-Factor: Bryant transfer Daniel Rivera is a fascinating player. He is next in line to a long history of athletic wings that fit Martin’s style perfectly. Rivera’s excellent length at 6’6″ allowed him to average 2.2 blocks per game last season, making him one of the best rim-protecting wings around. His long arms also give him a considerable advantage when finishing in transition—last season, he shot 55% at the rim while posting 1.18 points per possession in transition last year, putting him in the 72nd percentile in the nation. Although his jumper was objectively hideous the previous season, shooting 11% from three and 47% from the stripe, Rivera still offers tons on both sides of the floor.
Outlook: Of all the teams this season that could surprise people, UMass has the highest potential to do so the more you look at their roster. Martin is a good coach who has the toughness to get every ounce of juice from his team and the persona to win over his soldiers. Winning for this team must go through the Diggins, Curry, and Hankins-Sanford trio, a collective effort on defense, and playing games where they can’t afford any mistakes. I only have them where I do because I wonder where this team will be mentally. The institution isn’t leaving the A10 on the best terms, as indicated by the A10 not giving UMass any national TV games. So, while UMass has the best chance to play spoiler this season, I’m not sure where player’s minds will be this season.
Posted In: General Discussion