Let’s play a game, shall we?
If I showed you a blind list of the following teams and their conference records, without any context, who would you think belongs in the NCAA Tournament field?
Team A: 16-9 (7-6)
Team B: 18-7 (5-6)
Team C: 22-4 (12-1)
Team D: 14-10 (4-9)
Team E: 15-8 (4-6)
Team F: 23-2 (12-1)
There’s a pair of teams that stand out, isn’t there? Of that list of six bubble teams, only two teams have 20 wins, and that same pair is the only two with double-digit conference wins, and only a single conference loss. You’re probably thinking that looks like a pretty darn good resume to me. Who did they beat, you ask? Each of said two teams have 5 combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, and neither have a loss to a Quad 3 or Quad 4 team. Oh, and they’re both in the top-two of their respective conferences.
What about the other teams in that list above?
One is in 6th in their conference, one is 8th, two are in 10th.
What if I listed those same team’s respective RPI Rankings?
Team A: #75
Team B: #47
Team C: #21
Team D: #90
Team E: #66
Team F: #40
The two teams I was mentioning before that had the best records? Yeah, they’re the top-two again in RPI ranking.
But Daniel! RPI is so outdated! Everyone knows the NET is the ranking that everyone uses now!!! Well, we all know the NET very heavily favors power conferences and teams that win games by 25+, but okay, sure. Let’s take a look at how many Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins each of the bubble teams have:
Team A is 4-3 against Quad 1 and 2-6 against Quad 2 for a total of 6 wins.
Team B is 2-5 against Quad 1 and 3-2 against Quad 2 for a total of 5 wins.
Team C is 3-3 against Quad 1 and 2-1 against Quad 2 for a total of 5 wins.
Team D is 2-7 against Quad 1 and 3-2 against Quad 2 for a total of 5 wins.
Team E is 4-5 against Quad 1 and 0-3 against Quad 2 for a total of 4 wins.
Team F is 1-1 against Quad 1 and 4-1 against Quad 2 for a total of 5 wins.
Now you’re just avoiding showing the actual NET Rankings! Not at all. Let’s take a look:
Team A: #50
Team B: #58
Team C: #49
Team D: #48
Team E: #56
Team F: #55
So let’s recap, shall we?
Can you guess who is who now? Stay tuned for the end to see the reveal of all six teams. However, I’m sure you can probably guess who two of the six teams are based on the fact this is A10 Talk and not Big Ten Talk.
So let’s talk about it: Saint Joseph’s and Richmond.
We have two extremely compelling teams here, and there is an incredibly strong argument that BOTH should make the NCAA Tournament as at-large teams if neither cuts down the nets in Henrico in March. It is nearly a given that one of these two teams is going to be crowed A-10 Regular Season Champion, and it would take a massive collapse to not secure a double-bye in the A-10 Tournament.
Richmond jumps off the page initially as they have the slightly higher NET ranking between the two. The Spiders have three Quad 1 wins to their name (Drake [neutral], at Saint Joseph’s and at Davidson), and another two Quad 2 wins (at Rhode Island and at VCU). The Spiders are 11-0 at home, and have won 18 consecutives games at the Robins Center dating back to last season, meaning it has been since January 2023 that Richmond has lost at home. That is the 6th longest active home winning streak in the nation. Speaking of nation ranks, the Spiders have the 7th best three-point shooting percentage in the nation (38.7%), 7th most blocks per game (5.9), 11th best free throw percentage (78.7%), 12th in made threes per game (9.1), 14th in field goal percentage (47.3%), 41st in scoring margin (13.1), plus 63rd in overall offense (73.3) and 81st in overall defense (60.2) in the country. At an individual level, Addie Budnik ranks 8th in the nation in total blocks (65) and 16th in blocks per game (2.50).
Saint Joseph’s might only have one Quad 1 win (at George Mason), but they have four Quad 2 wins (at Temple, Villanova, at Rhode Island, and Davidson) to their name. The most astonishing thing about these Hawks is they are the #1 team in the entire nation on the road this season, at 12-0 (for comparison, #1 South Carolina is only 9-0). SJU has the second-longest active road winning streak, behind only the Gamecocks who have won 29 consecutive. Not bad company to be in. Those road wins include places like George Mason (only home loss of the season), Boston U (one of only two home loses), and Duquesne (one of only two home loses). Saint Joseph’s is receiving votes in both the AP and Coaches Poll. Speaking of national ranks, SJU is 3rd in the nation in fouls per game (12.0),4th in free throw percentage (92%), 5th in defense (53.2), 32nd in field goal percentage (45.6), 35th in scoring margin (14.2), and 42nd in assist to turnover ratio (1.13). Speaking of that defense, SJU has held seven of their last eight opponents to under 50 points, which includes the #2 offense in the A-10, George Mason, to just 47 points on their own floor. Mind you, a George Mason team that put up 60 points on the #1 defense in the nation, VCU, earlier this season.
Still not convinced yet by the raw stats? Let’s move to the final two, if semi-unofficial, components of the selection process: the eye test and most deserving. If anyone has spent any time watching either of these programs this season, you already know for a fact that they both pass the eye test with flying colors. I already mentioned SJU’s stellar performance at George Mason (a team who, until they got bit HARD by the injury bug was in prime position for an at-large bid themselves), but it’s also worth mentioning how consistent both teams have been throughout the season. The Spiders have won nine of their last 10 games, while the Hawks have won 10 consecutive contests. Folks, that is NOT an easy thing to do, especially when you look around at the rest of the Atlantic 10, which is as strong this year as it has been in years. The A-10 has the most teams in the NET top-90 of any non-power conference with six. All six of those teams went a combined 55-13 in non-conference play, which included three wins over ACC opponents. All six of said teams, including George Mason, VCU, Davidson, Rhode Island, plus possibly Duquesne, all look primed to make deep runs in March, whether it been the A-10 Tournament, NCAA Tournament, WBIT or WNIT.
So finally, we come to who is most deserving for an at-large birth in the NCAA Tournament between our original six bubble teams from our blind resume game. Let’s reveal all six, shall we?
Team A: Michigan (ESPN: Last Four In, HerHoopStats: First Four Out)
Team B: Vanderbilt (ESPN: Last Four In, HerHoopStats: First Four Out)
Team C: Richmond (ESPN: AQ, HerHoopStats: AQ)
Team D: Minnesota (ESPN: Next Four Out, HerHoopStats: 11-Seed)
Team E: Auburn (ESPN: Last Four In, HerHoopStats: First Four Out)
Team F: Saint Joseph’s (ESPN: First Four Out, HerHoopStats: Last Four In)
Let’s see that graphic again, shall we?
Did you guess the teams right? I imagine you’re both surprised and simultaneously not surprised at all to see how the national media views Richmond and Saint Joseph’s against the middle of the pack P6 schools. Back to the point of who is most deserving, looking at records alone, it’s clear SJU and Richmond are front runners. At the end of the day, you can only win the games in front of you. But lets dig a little more: let’s look at Quad 1 and Quad 2 opportunities. Michigan and Minnesota playing in the Big Ten, and Auburn and Vanderbilt in the SEC, have ample opportunities to make their case to the selection committee, often on national television for everyone to see. Michigan has had a total of seven Quad 1 and eight Quad 2 opportunities. Vanderbilt has had seven Quad 1 and 5 Quad 2 opportunities. Minnesota has had nine Quad 1 and five Quad 2 opportunities. Auburn has had nine Quad 1 and three Quad 2 opportunities. None of those four teams has more than a total of 6 combined Q1 and Q2 wins. Saint Joseph’s and Richmond on the other hand? The Hawks have had two Quad 1 and five Quad 2 opportunities, while the Spiders have had six Quad 1 and three Quad 2 opportunities. They each secured 5 combined Q1 and Q2 victories out of their comparably limited chances.
So I ask you again, who are the most deserving teams here? The 10th place teams in the Big Ten and SEC, or two Atlantic 10 juggernauts that have done everything the committee has asked them to do, and much more. Plain and simple, Saint Joseph’s and Richmond deserve to be playing in the NCAA Tournament in March, regardless of what happens in Henrico. Their stats, their rankings, their whole body of work make them so much more than deserving.
Cover photo credit: Richmond Athletics
Daniel Frank is an alum of George Mason University. The 2024 season marks their 9th season at A10Talk, where they are proud to be the content lead for Women’s Basketball coverage, as well as a senior contributor for Men’s Basketball content. In addition, this season will be Daniel’s 25th year following GW basketball, and their 7th following George Mason. You can follow Daniel on X, formerly known as Twitter, @n1a2v3y4.