4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Last Season: It took a little longer than some would have liked, but Mike Rhoades captured the first A-10 title for VCU since 2015. Was this VCU team as good as Shaka’s adieu in 2015? Probably not. But they boasted one hell of a group: Brandon Johns Jr. and Jalen DeLoach were selected to all-conference teams, Jamir Watkins was an all-tournament pick, and Adrian Baldwin showed why he was the “Ace” of this team: A-10 player of the year, defensive player of the year, a first-team all-conference pick, all-tournament, and a spot on the all-defensive team in one season. He joined David West, Stephane Lasame, and Pepe Sanchez as the only players in A-10 history to achieve that feat.
Their reward was Mike Rhoades being poached to Penn State and bringing Baldwin and Nicholas Kern with him. DeLoach hightailed it to Georgia, Watkins bolted to Florida State, Jayden Nunn found himself at Baylor, and not returning a single rotation player who played north of 15 minutes per game came back — except Zeb Jackson.
VCU turned over the program to the next luminary coach in college basketball, and that coach is Ryan Odom. He’s the first hire outside the Shaka Smart tree in two coaching hires. Not only does he come in after a successful run at Utah State, but he’s the polar opposite with his coaching philosophies compared to his predecessors: Odom is one of the best offensive minds in the coaching ranks. VCU is a defensive program historically, so this change is going to be a major adjustment for the program as they build it from scratch with a completely new program.
Returnees: Zeb Jackson, Christian Fermin, Tobi Luwal, Alphonzo ‘Fats’ Billups III
Out: Everyone Else
In: Jason Nelson, Sean Bairstow, Max Shulga, Roosevelt Wheeler, Kuany Kuany, Michael Belle, Joe Bamisile
Potential Strengths: While Odom isn’t a defensive guru like his predecessors, he knows how to gameplan defense while upholding an efficient offense. His approach caters to both ends of the floor to ensure all facets of play are strong. Utah State was 70th in adjusted defense on Kenpom, while last year’s VCU team was 15th — being in the top 80 isn’t an unreasonable expectation for this group on defense. The intensity just won’t be hellacious like it was in the past. Louisville transfer Roosevelt Wheeler comes to be the defensive-minded, rim-running big in the middle. He stands at 6’11” and should be some level of enforcer come November.
Odom got two Aggies to follow him in 6’8” Sean Baristow and 6’4” Max Shulga, both exceptional gunners from three and passers. Bairstow was shooting at a 38% clip while Shulga wasn’t far behind at 36%. Shulga also had a game at San Diego where he went 5-5 from range and posted four assists per game. Bairstow is a post-up threat and a mobile passer, he’ll likely be a mismatch nightmare for teams when they defend him due to his height and ability to dribble. Both guys love the pick and roll and dish the rock at exceptional rates.
Jason Nelson is now on the other side of the Capital City rivalry after his rollercoaster season at Richmond. He isn’t the pitbull defender that VCU teams have in the past, but his offensive skill set will be welcomed for Odom’s offensive attack and tempo-pushing style. The Commonwealth could be one of the best passing teams in the conference as well. Odom’s style demands sharing and caring — Utah State was 9th last year in the NCAA in assists per game (16.7) and 30th in assists to turnover ratio (1.8) with five guys scoring double figures.
Kuany Kuany is leading what may be a very deep wing rotation. Say what you want about Mark Fox’s tenure at California, Kuany is a talented inside threat with his length and can hit the long ball on occasion. Behind the graduate student are the remains of the previous regime: Tobi Lawal, Fats Billups, and Christian Fermin. All three are athletic, fast, and skillful defensive players. Hidden behind them is 6’7” freshman Michael Belle, who is in a similar mold to all of these big wings, but for now is likely to see limited burn. Down the road, however, he can find himself in the rotation as an important piece.
Potential Weaknesses: For starters, Joe Bamasile’s waiver has been denied as he’s now on his fourth school in four seasons. He began at Virginia Tech, then went to George Washington, went back to a power five in Oklahoma, and returned to the A-10 but at VCU…to have his waiver denied. Bamisile was expected to be a large piece of this program with his scoring prowess but the NCAA decided to nix that idea.
VCU only returns one guy who played over 15 minutes per game last season — Zeb Jackson. Billups, Lawal, and Fermin either played sparingly or didn’t play at all last season. Everyone else has come from different walks of life ranging from starters at their old schools or benchwarmers looking for an opportunity. Team chemistry may be a problem early on for this group, but they had the benefit of a summer trip to Europe which could suppress some issues.
They lack an alpha dog on offense which isn’t ideal for such a new team — Bamisile was supposed to be that guy for them but he has to sit out. Their likely top four scorers: Nelson, Shulga, Bairstow, and Kuany are obvious candidates for this discussion. Kuany’s (and Bairstow’s) height and ability to hit threes is a reason to think this, Shulga has unlimited range and Nelson has the speed to generate space and get off a shot himself.
Three-point shooting has always been the one weakness you can point to for VCU. They’ve added some more capable guys from there, but everyone else either cannot or is yet to take threes in their college careers. Jackson didn’t even hit 20% of his threes last year (not that he was needed for that), Nelson wasn’t very efficient, and the other holdovers from last year have yet to hit a shot in college from three.
Outlook: A new age has dawned on VCU basketball. The offense is the new defense for this program, a non-HAVOC assistant for a head coach, and an entirely new roster. It’s going to be a wild ride for Ryan Odom’s first season at the helm. The team will have growing pains but flashes of brilliance now and again. It’s coming down to how he builds the chemistry — let alone how quickly the chemistry builds. Can they finish in the top four? I wouldn’t rule it out with Odom hitting the ground running — though it will take a year before they can contend again.