This series takes a weekly look at which teams in the A-10 have the potential to be selected into the NCAA tournament. Updated every Tuesday morning, these projections are based off of non-conference and conference performances, as well as projections from the experts. 

KEY: NR (not ranked), N/A (not updated)

All projections based on if the season ended today.

Locks

Dayton Flyers (19-3, 9-1 A-10)

ESPN: 4 seed | CBS Sports: 4 seed | NBC Sports: 5 seed | SI.com: 5 seed

By all standards, Dayton had a pretty solid week. They handily won both of their games over La Salle and George Mason, moved up to #17 in the AP Top 25 rankings and secured themselves a momentary 4/5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Experts clearly favor the Flyers as the best team in the Atlantic 10, perhaps a benefit of the doubt given the recent success of Archie Miller’s teams. Dayton should beat Duquesne and Rhode Island this week and remain in a similar spot next Tuesday.

VCU Rams (17-6, 9-1 A10)

ESPN: 10 seed | CBS Sports: Last Four In | NBC Sports: 8 seed | SI.com: 10 seed

Finally, VCU suffered its first loss of the A-10 season. Give George Washington credit, they played a great game and won outright. This doesn’t impact the Rams’ standing too much in the rankings, but CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm is the lone outlier and has VCU listed as one of the last four teams in. However given no other expert agreed, VCU fans shouldn’t be fretting their team’s standing too much right now.

George Washington Colonials (18-5, 7-3 A10)

ESPN: 9 seed | CBS Sports: Last Four In | NBC Sports: Last Four In | SI.com: Last Four In

To say that GW’s win over VCU this week was huge would be an understatement. The Colonials desperately needed a quality win and they got one on the Rams’ notoriously difficult homecourt. All experts have them in their bracket, which is obviously a huge relief for Mike Lonergan’s team. The Colonials have two key matchups this week against St. Joe’s and St. Bonaventure, of which they could probably afford to lose one.

On the Bubble

St. Joseph’s Hawks (19-4, 8-2 A10)

ESPN: 11 seed | CBS Sports: First Four Out | NBC Sports: Last Four In | SI.com: Last Four In

St. Joseph’s loss this week to St. Bona wasn’t what the team needed, however it doesn’t destroy their tourney chances. At 19-4 overall, the Hawks have a solid resume, but still need a signature win to impress the selection committee. A victory over George Washington this week would be huge and could put this team back on the right side of the bubble. The reality remains that if the season ended today, the destiny of St. Joe’s would be very much up in the air.

Outside Looking In

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (15-6, 7-3 A10)

ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: NR

Last week the Bonnies were on the brink of tourney elimination, but this past week has shown much promise. St. Bona notched a key win over St. Joe’s and then bested SLU on a buzzer-beater three from Jaylen Adams. To stay in contention for next week, this team needs wins over both Fordham and George Washington, the latter being the more important.

Bon Voyage…

Davidson Wildcats (13-8, 5-5 A10)

ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: NR

It’s been a ride, Davidson. Unfortunately Jack Gibbs is not enough to take this team to the next level this season. If Gibbs returns next year, the Wildcats are right back in the thick of it.