Finally. It’s time for conference play in college basketball. Games get tighter, rivalries are renewed, and tickets to postseason tournaments are more or less punched.
Lucky for you, I went ahead and predicted the winner of every single A-10 game, and subsequently, every team’s record. In full disclosure, I did not use Sabermetrics, nor did I consult Nate Silver and his team of nerds at FiveThirtyEight. So after this guy rolls out his A-10 forecast, feel free to respond to the snarky commentary that follows. Wagers are welcome, too. I could use the extra cash.
1. VCU 15-3
2. George Washington 14-4
3. Davidson 12-6
4. Rhode Island 12-6
5. La Salle 11-7
6. Dayton 11-7
7. UMass 10-8
8. St. Bonaventure 9-9
9. St. Joseph’s 8-10
10. Richmond 8-10
11. George Mason 5-13
12. Saint Louis 5-13
13. Duquesne 4-14
14. Fordham 2-16
If you haven’t already punched out your computer screen because I underrated your favorite team, consider a few interesting thoughts about this year’s schedule:
- First of all, A-10 play is 18 games long, an extra two games longer than in years past. With no divisions, each team will play five opponents twice.
- Davidson and Rhode Island will both finish 12-6 and finish in a tie but Davidson’s win over the Rams in Kingston breaks the tie.
- Dayton and La Salle will tie for fifth place. After each team beats the other on its home floor, the Explorers take fifth because of their January 10th victory over George Washington.
- George Mason and Saint Louis will split their season series, but the Patriots win the tiebreaker because their win over Rhode Island will be worth more than the Billikens win over La Salle.
- St. Joe’s will hold the tiebreaker over Richmond because the Hawks will slip past the Spiders in Philadelphia. Home court advantage is everything.
- Dayton only has to play VCU, GW, Davidson, and Rhode Island once. However, the former three games are on the road.
- The two teams Fordham will beat are Saint Louis and UMass. And its win over UMass will give my father (I’m a UMass grad, my father a Fordham grad) a license to talk trash for the rest of the year. Ugh.
- Lucky for us, VCU and GW will play each other twice.
- Davidson will win somewhere between 0 and 18 games. The Wildcats record is anyone’s guess.
- To me, the most intriguing matchups are the two Davidson-URI games. If Davidson lives up to expectations, those two games could go a LONG way in determining NCAA bids.
- I felt that I conservatively predicted Rhode Island’s 12-6 record. The schedule is set up for the Rams to do serious damage. They only play VCU and GW once and both games are at home. According to the latest Power Rankings, the best team the Rams play twice is La Salle. And, they play Fordham twice. I think 12 wins will put Rhody right on the bubble, and any more wins should give them their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1999.
So there you have it. One bozo’s attempt at predicting the A-10 season.
What do y’all think?