Bonafanatic
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This is without question the most intelligent, fact-based and level-headed bracketology discussion on any team message board. kudos.
This is true, but also hurts us.True, but they are taking spots from Indiana, Xavier, Seton Hall. Not us. We definitely need to watch Sparty, Duke and Tech closely. It would help if Houston would take the AAC back from Wichita St too. We also want Duq and Davidson to win games, they can add 3 Q2 wins to our ledger if they move up a little.
I am trying to work my last 4 in and I cant figure out who to keep. 3 of the 4 lost last night and Stanford is the only team I really would move in right now. Richmond is close. I dont want to put in Minnesota (barf).
This is true, but also hurts us.
Yes, Indiana, Xavier and Seton Hall losing helps, BUT those conferences provide more chances at quality wins and not bad losses. The MWC, A10 and MVC don't provide the same while having more landmines.
More teams coming into the fold does not help. Instead of having 15 teams in the mix we now have 18 - not ideal.
This is what I see as our competition for the last bubble spots available:
NCAA Last teams in (ordered from safest to least safe)
1.)UCLA
2.) San Diego State
3.) Oregon
4.) North Carolina
5.) Maryland
6.) Louisville
7.)VCU/St. Bona
8.)Xavier
9.) Colorado State * Last Four
10.) UConn * Last Four
11.) Duke *Last Four
12.) Minnesota * Last Four
-NIT-
13.) Indiana
14.) Stanford
15.)Georgia Tech
16.) Michigan State
17.) Saint Louis
18. ) Seton Hall
A lot of truth in what you said but I will counter that at this time of year, any loss is going to set you back. The BE doesnt have the needle moving wins you think it does. Villanova and Creighton are the only ones that are going to raise eyebrows. Indiana and Mich St certainly have opportunities but they have mostly swung and missed. Indiana had basically beat Iowa twice and one of them was without Iowa's best shooter. Its the damn conference tournaments we have to worry about. The locks might not have their hearts in them and might just want to take their foot off the gas and that would let some jerk team like Indiana steal wins.This is true, but also hurts us.
Yes, Indiana, Xavier and Seton Hall losing helps, BUT those conferences provide more chances at quality wins and not bad losses. The MWC, A10 and MVC don't provide the same while having more landmines.
More teams coming into the fold does not help. Instead of having 15 teams in the mix we now have 18 - not ideal.
This is what I see as our competition for the last bubble spots available:
NCAA Last teams in (ordered from safest to least safe)
1.)UCLA
2.) San Diego State
3.) Oregon
4.) North Carolina
5.) Maryland
6.) Louisville
7.)VCU/St. Bona
8.)Xavier
9.) Colorado State * Last Four
10.) UConn * Last Four
11.) Duke *Last Four
12.) Minnesota * Last Four
-NIT-
13.) Indiana
14.) Stanford
15.)Georgia Tech
16.) Michigan State
17.) Saint Louis
18. ) Seton Hall
Agreed. I just based the list off opinion and what BracketMatrix looks like.A lot of truth in what you said but I will counter that at this time of year, any loss is going to set you back. The BE doesnt have the needle moving wins you think it does. Villanova and Creighton are the only ones that are going to raise eyebrows. Indiana and Mich St certainly have opportunities but they have mostly swung and missed. Indiana had basically beat Iowa twice and one of them was without Iowa's best shooter. Its the damn conference tournaments we have to worry about. The locks might not have their hearts in them and might just want to take their foot off the gas and that would let some jerk team like Indiana steal wins.
As quickly as teams come into the fold, they can leave. Carolina was nearly out, they crushed Louisville and people loved them and then they lose to Marquette and are now back near the bubble. Its still very fluid. Teams are going to hurt and help themselves every day so when we have a night like last night we need to enjoy it and hopefully build more equity.
I would take UCLA, SD St and Oregon off the list. They are our ceiling right now and would only come into play with us if they take on a couple bad losses.
Yea, X is one slip up away and I bet there are people out there who removed them after last night. WKU will be an at large team if they win tonight. That would be 2 road wins over 2 seeds. Now, they are the favorite in Conf USA so hopefully they just win that. Normally I would be rooting for a team like them but not this year.Agreed. I just based the list off opinion and what BracketMatrix looks like.
It's for sure a fluid situation that changes each day. Xavier looks like they could be out if they lose on Saturday. WKU could hop in to the at large convo with a win tonight.
Mich St is getting closer but still has a bit of work to do. Not a good night for the Colorado haters as they ambushed USC. WKY is not an at large team at this point.
I am ready to delcare Minnesota dead but they have zombie potential. Mich St is still only 68 in NET but they are trending up. They have at Maryland and vs Michigan left plus the BIG tournament. So they still have some opportunities to play in. They can still get hurt because they have a ton of losses already and at some point you have too many losses and they are very close to that. They can afford to lose to Michigan and thats it.Yeah, Colorado's resume was extremely overrated, but dominating USC pretty much locks them in. Michigan State winning is just frustrating as they basically can't get hurt the rest of the year by losses and it seems like they'll get if they can finish win 15 wins - losses be damned. UCLA pretty much locked up their spot by winning their 4th straight.
Belmont and Western Kentucky pretty certainly had their bubbles burst last night.
It's probably too soon to declare Minnesota dead, but losing at home to a Northwestern team that literally hadn't won in 2021 *should* be the death knell.
Boise State has a very similar resume as Bona so hopefully SD State finishes off the sweep on Saturday.
Stanford losing to Oregon makes it pretty tough for them to get in. They have some nice wins, but a 10 loss team in the 6th highest rated conference (including three losses outside the top 100) has no business in the tourney.
I agree on Stanford, its tough since they were without their best player and it was a close game. They have played 24 games this year and only 5 of them were on their home floor, that is nuts.
We have to win the next two plus one in A10s to feel safe. Add in the fact we don't want a bid thief from our conference.I am ready to delcare Minnesota dead but they have zombie potential. Mich St is still only 68 in NET but they are trending up. They have at Maryland and vs Michigan left plus the BIG tournament. So they still have some opportunities to play in. They can still get hurt because they have a ton of losses already and at some point you have too many losses and they are very close to that. They can afford to lose to Michigan and thats it.
Boise St seems like they are in unless they fall apart. I have them 1 spot above us but that was before last night. Hard to ding them for losing a close game to a good team on the road so they will probably stay close.
I agree on Stanford, its tough since they were without their best player and it was a close game. They have played 24 games this year and only 5 of them were on their home floor, that is nuts.
As far as Bonas is concerned, keep winning!
To be fair to those bubble teams, we've had a handful of ugly games. But I agree, the Missouri Valley doesn't impress me nor does most of the Big East or AAC.I have been watching a few of these games involving bubble teams. Maybe I don't know what I'm seeing but I haven't been impressed with the quality of play. The games between VCU and SLU and the Bonnies and VCU seemed to be a higher level of basketball. We didn't have the normal season's OOC opportunities and then launched into a dystopian conference schedule of cannibalism and covid. In other words, I think our conference is underrated and there is no way to properly evaluate it based on the recent history. Just get us in that tourney and I think we'll get to the second week.
Love that breakdown.and I know nobody asked but this is what I have, feedback and questions appreciated
View attachment 277
Richmond was the one a10 homer pick I had. If they lose tonight I'll get rid of them like uncle Phil tossing jazzy jeff. I really struggled with who else to put in and I wanted to fuck over Indiana, duke and Michigan st.Love that breakdown.
I think Xavier is pure fluff and will hopefully fall off the bubble soon. I'm not sure Richmond belongs, and think it's doubtful that they are in unless they kick ass down the stretch.
Stanford, Michigan State, Duke and GT all have a real good shot at making the tourney. I think they would take Rich, X and two other teams spots.
This is what I hate about this time of year. We are on eggshells playing games that can only hurt us while a nobody NC State picks up a random win here or there and comes into the fold.
Perhaps I'm a cynic, but if I am Drake, CSU, Bona and VCU. I am pretty nervous. The committee will take into consideration teams that played shortened OOCs, but there's no way they're going to throw out wins by the big boys.
Imagine it comes down to Bona and let's say Stanford. I'd be surprised they say, well Bona has no real wins out of conference due to the Covid, so let's penalize Stanford and throw out their win against Alabama.