The Bubble

brownindians85

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Great work and feedback, 03. I don't see VCU 2 seed lines below us and think a 9 is too high. I really think a low 10 is about right. I do think we should be ahead of them on the S-curve despite their higher NET.

Glad to see you have GT on the waiting list. Josh Pastner can't self-promote any more than he is, and there are just enough schools that don't have the bad losses. Understanding they were early but, oh well.

UConn? I think they're in. A win over USC. Their Q3 loss was to #76, as shittily close to the arbitrary line as you can get. I'd swap them with Louisville in the pair of "last 4" columns. Louisville is subject to the blowout.

But really, I can't imagine having this job. Every random team I tried to poke a hole in or think I found something that should swap, I can see the case made for how you have it. Tbh, the only pick I really have a hard time with is SBU at 9, of all things.
 

Bona03

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Great work and feedback, 03. I don't see VCU 2 seed lines below us and think a 9 is too high. I really think a low 10 is about right. I do think we should be ahead of them on the S-curve despite their higher NET.

Glad to see you have GT on the waiting list. Josh Pastner can't self-promote any more than he is, and there are just enough schools that don't have the bad losses. Understanding they were early but, oh well.

UConn? I think they're in. A win over USC. Their Q3 loss was to #76, as shittily close to the arbitrary line as you can get. I'd swap them with Louisville in the pair of "last 4" columns. Louisville is subject to the blowout.

But really, I can't imagine having this job. Every random team I tried to poke a hole in or think I found something that should swap, I can see the case made for how you have it. Tbh, the only pick I really have a hard time with is SBU at 9, of all things.
Before Boise St lost last night I had them 36, Drake 37 and us at 38. That has us as the 2nd 10 seed. It came down to us or UNC for that last 9 and them losing to Marquette the other night I couldnt do it. I think they should be lower and if Boise wins tomorrow I will move them back above us and UNC. I then decided to put us above Drake because I think our resume is better. The consensus around is we are a 10-11 seed. I look at our resume and I compare it to others and its really solid. NET 35, our metrics average out in the 40's while theres is high 50's. VCu has 0 Q1 wins and 2 "bad" losses, both at home so I am comfy with them at 11 and being the last bye. I'll admit my bias may have led me to put Bona a spot or 2 higher on the seed list but we are the last 9 and one spots away from a 10 so I'll live with that.
 

mlh

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I don’t know why it surprises me year after year, but Michigan State’s ascendance (in today’s field on bracketmatrix at least going into today) is atrocious.

Obviously, beating Ohio State and Illinois (goes without saying both at home) is great. Each are very good teams likely capable of getting to the Final Four. But they’ve had 8 opportunities to get top 25 NET wins with 5 of those at home and won twice. It matters which teams are in that, but that is probably not even average for a bubble team.

They have 4 other Q1/Q2 wins, but only a home victory over Rutgers is against a team above the bracketmatrix cut line.

They don’t have any bad losses, but that’s only because Northwestern still has a good NET ranking despite always losing. They’re 3 games under .500 in their own conference and have a pair of losses to teams that aren’t even on the bubble. Bad NET ranking and a KenPom that’s not much better.

Their resume lost a lot of luster over the weekend by getting blown out by Maryland and having Ohio State and Duke both take home losses. Yet the math says they’ll likely win one of three to end the season. Then, because they’ll have lost a lot of conference games, they’ll beat a weaker team early in the Big 10 tournament (which will maddeningly be Q2) and then get a ‘win and in’
game and I’ll want to stab my eyes out with a spoon as Seth Davis smirkingly exclaims how they just punched their ticket because they beat fucking Purdue. Rinse repeat.
 

Bona03

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Little update:
1614607171780.png

The funny thing is I moved Bona down to the first 10 spot even though my case for having them at a 9 is better. Stupid UNC had to ruin that fun beating FSU. The red note in a few of the cells indicate teams had to move for bracket reasons. We should be where Maryland is according to the list.
 

Citizen X

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It is the morning prior to the Bonnies' A10 tourney match with Duquesne. Our guys are A10 regular season champs and rated #31 on the NET, 26 on RPI, 33 on Kenpom, and an average of a NCAAT 10-seed on the 107 pundits who guess at this shit. It does not seem to be fair or logical that the Bonnies would not get a bid if they lose to the Dukes, yet past snubs leave us with the fear it will happen. Will those fears linger if we whack the Iron Dukes as expected? It doesn't hurt to be hungry.
 

brownindians85

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X, relax. A team that is easily top 1-3 in the A10 were this a full season should not be worrying about whether they'll still make the dance if they lose to #9. If this team isn't solely focused on 11:00 AM today regardless of standings, there are way bigger problems. They've "wanted it" - a stupid fanbase cliche if there ever was one - every minute they've been on the court and I expect it to continue today. Just Winn. The "what if we lose" is so defeatist. They're the goddam 1 seed. Let's go!
 

Bill Russell

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X, relax. A team that is easily top 1-3 in the A10 were this a full season should not be worrying about whether they'll still make the dance if they lose to #9. If this team isn't solely focused on 11:00 AM today regardless of standings, there are way bigger problems. They've "wanted it" - a stupid fanbase cliche if there ever was one - every minute they've been on the court and I expect it to continue today. Just Winn. The "what if we lose" is so defeatist. They're the goddam 1 seed. Let's go!
 

Citizen X

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Yeah, I'm not really worried. Just hypothesizing, 'cause that's what we do.

BTW, I see the Bonnies are now #29 in today's NET.
 
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Community Bank 3Pt Tee

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Yeah. We are 29 and will rise once more after that Winn. No thanks necessary, SLU & VCU for the newfound Q1 win. A Dayton victory today might be enough to prop that up to a Q2 loss as they sit at 80 now. Dayton knocking off VCU in the quarters certainly wouldn't hurt our bubble odds, either. As of today, our January win at Duquesne la Roche is back to Q2 by 1 spot. Hard to say if our beating them today will change that.
 

Bona03

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I am done worrying about Q1 and Q2 shit. We are in so I am going to enjoy the next couple weeks. Making the tournament was not on my radar this year so this was a great surprise and accomplishment.
 

3rdShayCripSet

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I am done worrying about Q1 and Q2 shit. We are in so I am going to enjoy the next couple weeks. Making the tournament was not on my radar this year so this was a great surprise and accomplishment.
Shit, dude. While we are in a good position today, I just need the following teams to lose to feel OK: syracuse, Duke, Boise State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Utah State, Memphis and St. John's.

By my uneducated calculations, there are 14 at large spots still unclaimed, ranking them from most secure to least is how I see the following teams:

1.) Maryland
2.) LSU
3.) UCLA
4.) Louisville
5.) UNC
6.) Rutgers
7.) UConn
8.) VCU
9.) Michigan State
10.) Georgia Tech
11.) Colorado State (Last four in)
12.) Xavier (Last four in)
13.) Saint Louis (Last four in)
14.) Drake (last four in)

First four out: Syracuse, Boise State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall

Next Out: Duke.... Utah State, St. John's, Memphis, NC State, SMU, Arizona

If Wichita State, Loyola, us lose in our tournaments, that would shrink the bubble even more.
 

Bona03

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Right now, and I am just going by consensus, we are in the 37 to 40 range in a seed list depending who you look at. That is before todays action. 48 is where the bubble bursts. A loss to SLU tomorrow would not cause us much damage and SLU might be in after that depending how things fall. When we lost to VCU we dropped 3-4 spots but we are more solid now. Things are hardening (heh heh) now that we are closer and closer to the end. You wont see the volatility as much. I find it highly unlikely that we fall 11 spots with so little left.

I am seeing sites out there that put our odds of making it in the 90-95% range right now as we speak.
 

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3rdShayCripSet

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Right now, and I am just going by consensus, we are in the 37 to 40 range in a seed list depending who you look at. That is before todays action. 48 is where the bubble bursts. A loss to SLU tomorrow would not cause us much damage and SLU might be in after that depending how things fall. When we lost to VCU we dropped 3-4 spots but we are more solid now. Things are hardening (heh heh) now that we are closer and closer to the end. You wont see the volatility as much. I find it highly unlikely that we fall 11 spots with so little left.

I am seeing sites out there that put our odds of making it in the 90-95% range right now as we speak.
I'm not worried about dropping with a loss, but having teams jump up over us with wins over the next week...
 

brownindians85

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I know this matches national sentiment, but I just don't see Colorado State ahead of Saint Louis. OOC is not even a comparison. CSU lost to SMC who is down this season, and beat Santa Clara and N Arizona, both bottom half schools in meh conferences. We know what SLU has done. I know CSU has no Q3/4 losses but SLU arguable had a tougher Q3 schedule. Same with Drake, 17-2 in Q3/4 and that contains some real bad teams. I'd sub SLU and USU in for those two.

If there's a good explanation I can be compelled to think otherwise. It may be some A10 homerism, but I think looking at the team sheets gives so much more depth when you compare those 4 schools. And I know you look at the team sheets too.
 

Bona03

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I'll be honest, SLU does not have the best resume in the world. In non conference, which they had complete control over, they played 1 road game and lost (Minnesota). THey played 5 road games on the year and won 1 (Fordham). They have the LSU and Bona wins. CSU has wins at SD St and Utah St, which are both nice road wins. They also have 0 losses on the right side compared to 2 for SLU. Honeslty, we didnt do them any favors by kicking their ass last week (sorry, not sorry). THe MW teams will put up or shut up today and tomorrow. 1 of them will fall out but the question is which one and will they have a better resume than SLU? Cuse really screwed SLU. ANother factor here is Wichita St. IF they lose to anybody but Houston they are out and will open up another slot. There could also be a bid thief or 2 out there who could cockblock SLU or another MW school too.

Edited to add: losing at St Mary's is a better loss than losing at Dayton. My fav metric out there is WAB (Wins Above Bubble). SLU is 62 in that vs CSU at 49. SLU is -1.35 which means that they have 1 less win against their schedule than the avg bubble team. That is not good. CSU is basically even. Utah St is worse at -1.61. Drake .88 and the Bonnies .85 so they almost have 1 more win than an average team would vs their schedule.

If we are being honest, I dont think it matters how tough your 3/4 games are. If you lose some, its a mark against you.
 
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