The Bubble

Bonafanatic

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This is without question the most intelligent, fact-based and level-headed bracketology discussion on any team message board. kudos.
 
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3rdShayCripSet

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True, but they are taking spots from Indiana, Xavier, Seton Hall. Not us. We definitely need to watch Sparty, Duke and Tech closely. It would help if Houston would take the AAC back from Wichita St too. We also want Duq and Davidson to win games, they can add 3 Q2 wins to our ledger if they move up a little.

I am trying to work my last 4 in and I cant figure out who to keep. 3 of the 4 lost last night and Stanford is the only team I really would move in right now. Richmond is close. I dont want to put in Minnesota (barf).
This is true, but also hurts us.

Yes, Indiana, Xavier and Seton Hall losing helps, BUT those conferences provide more chances at quality wins and not bad losses. The MWC, A10 and MVC don't provide the same while having more landmines.

More teams coming into the fold does not help. Instead of having 15 teams in the mix we now have 18 - not ideal.

This is what I see as our competition for the last bubble spots available:

NCAA Last teams in (ordered from safest to least safe)
1.)UCLA
2.) San Diego State
3.) Oregon
4.) North Carolina
5.) Maryland
6.) Louisville
7.)VCU/St. Bona
8.)Xavier
9.) Colorado State * Last Four
10.) UConn * Last Four
11.) Duke *Last Four
12.) Minnesota * Last Four
-NIT-
13.) Indiana
14.) Stanford
15.)Georgia Tech
16.) Michigan State
17.) Saint Louis
18. ) Seton Hall
 
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mlh

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This is true, but also hurts us.

Yes, Indiana, Xavier and Seton Hall losing helps, BUT those conferences provide more chances at quality wins and not bad losses. The MWC, A10 and MVC don't provide the same while having more landmines.

More teams coming into the fold does not help. Instead of having 15 teams in the mix we now have 18 - not ideal.

This is what I see as our competition for the last bubble spots available:

NCAA Last teams in (ordered from safest to least safe)
1.)UCLA
2.) San Diego State
3.) Oregon
4.) North Carolina
5.) Maryland
6.) Louisville
7.)VCU/St. Bona
8.)Xavier
9.) Colorado State * Last Four
10.) UConn * Last Four
11.) Duke *Last Four
12.) Minnesota * Last Four
-NIT-
13.) Indiana
14.) Stanford
15.)Georgia Tech
16.) Michigan State
17.) Saint Louis
18. ) Seton Hall

I'd also put Colorado on the high end and Drake/Wichita St/Richmond on the low end.
 

Bona03

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Dec 29, 2019
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St. Bonaventure
This is true, but also hurts us.

Yes, Indiana, Xavier and Seton Hall losing helps, BUT those conferences provide more chances at quality wins and not bad losses. The MWC, A10 and MVC don't provide the same while having more landmines.

More teams coming into the fold does not help. Instead of having 15 teams in the mix we now have 18 - not ideal.

This is what I see as our competition for the last bubble spots available:

NCAA Last teams in (ordered from safest to least safe)
1.)UCLA
2.) San Diego State
3.) Oregon
4.) North Carolina
5.) Maryland
6.) Louisville
7.)VCU/St. Bona
8.)Xavier
9.) Colorado State * Last Four
10.) UConn * Last Four
11.) Duke *Last Four
12.) Minnesota * Last Four
-NIT-
13.) Indiana
14.) Stanford
15.)Georgia Tech
16.) Michigan State
17.) Saint Louis
18. ) Seton Hall
A lot of truth in what you said but I will counter that at this time of year, any loss is going to set you back. The BE doesnt have the needle moving wins you think it does. Villanova and Creighton are the only ones that are going to raise eyebrows. Indiana and Mich St certainly have opportunities but they have mostly swung and missed. Indiana had basically beat Iowa twice and one of them was without Iowa's best shooter. Its the damn conference tournaments we have to worry about. The locks might not have their hearts in them and might just want to take their foot off the gas and that would let some jerk team like Indiana steal wins.

As quickly as teams come into the fold, they can leave. Carolina was nearly out, they crushed Louisville and people loved them and then they lose to Marquette and are now back near the bubble. Its still very fluid. Teams are going to hurt and help themselves every day so when we have a night like last night we need to enjoy it and hopefully build more equity.

I would take UCLA, SD St and Oregon off the list. They are our ceiling right now and would only come into play with us if they take on a couple bad losses.
 
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3rdShayCripSet

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St. Bonaventure
A lot of truth in what you said but I will counter that at this time of year, any loss is going to set you back. The BE doesnt have the needle moving wins you think it does. Villanova and Creighton are the only ones that are going to raise eyebrows. Indiana and Mich St certainly have opportunities but they have mostly swung and missed. Indiana had basically beat Iowa twice and one of them was without Iowa's best shooter. Its the damn conference tournaments we have to worry about. The locks might not have their hearts in them and might just want to take their foot off the gas and that would let some jerk team like Indiana steal wins.

As quickly as teams come into the fold, they can leave. Carolina was nearly out, they crushed Louisville and people loved them and then they lose to Marquette and are now back near the bubble. Its still very fluid. Teams are going to hurt and help themselves every day so when we have a night like last night we need to enjoy it and hopefully build more equity.

I would take UCLA, SD St and Oregon off the list. They are our ceiling right now and would only come into play with us if they take on a couple bad losses.
Agreed. I just based the list off opinion and what BracketMatrix looks like.

It's for sure a fluid situation that changes each day. Xavier looks like they could be out if they lose on Saturday. WKU could hop in to the at large convo with a win tonight.
 

Bona03

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St. Bonaventure
Agreed. I just based the list off opinion and what BracketMatrix looks like.

It's for sure a fluid situation that changes each day. Xavier looks like they could be out if they lose on Saturday. WKU could hop in to the at large convo with a win tonight.
Yea, X is one slip up away and I bet there are people out there who removed them after last night. WKU will be an at large team if they win tonight. That would be 2 road wins over 2 seeds. Now, they are the favorite in Conf USA so hopefully they just win that. Normally I would be rooting for a team like them but not this year.

Good conversation, I love this shit
 

brownindians85

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Nov 13, 2019
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There's going to be a big fat * on the title if the champ got a forfeit bye due to covid at some point during the 3 weeks. But a tournament this way is better than none at all. Hopefully they are willing to retest once or twice to rule out any potential false positive. You'd think if a positive happens on a weekend game, they could possibly move some time slots to get a 5 or 6 day window to make sure the remaining portion of the team is asymptomatic and test negative. I'm not even sure what the mandatory isolation period is these days.. 5? 7? 10? Never mind. I see the condensed schedule.

ETA: regarding the actual bubble. Mich St is clawing their way in. WKY hopefully assured CUSA is a 1-bid league.
 
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Bona03

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Mich St is getting closer but still has a bit of work to do. Not a good night for the Colorado haters as they ambushed USC. WKY is not an at large team at this point.
 
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mlh

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Mich St is getting closer but still has a bit of work to do. Not a good night for the Colorado haters as they ambushed USC. WKY is not an at large team at this point.

Yeah, Colorado's resume was extremely overrated, but dominating USC pretty much locks them in. Michigan State winning is just frustrating as they basically can't get hurt the rest of the year by losses and it seems like they'll get if they can finish win 15 wins - losses be damned. UCLA pretty much locked up their spot by winning their 4th straight.

Belmont and Western Kentucky pretty certainly had their bubbles burst last night.

It's probably too soon to declare Minnesota dead, but losing at home to a Northwestern team that literally hadn't won in 2021 *should* be the death knell.

Boise State has a very similar resume as Bona so hopefully SD State finishes off the sweep on Saturday.

Stanford losing to Oregon makes it pretty tough for them to get in. They have some nice wins, but a 10 loss team in the 6th highest rated conference (including three losses outside the top 100) has no business in the tourney.
 

Bona03

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Yeah, Colorado's resume was extremely overrated, but dominating USC pretty much locks them in. Michigan State winning is just frustrating as they basically can't get hurt the rest of the year by losses and it seems like they'll get if they can finish win 15 wins - losses be damned. UCLA pretty much locked up their spot by winning their 4th straight.

Belmont and Western Kentucky pretty certainly had their bubbles burst last night.

It's probably too soon to declare Minnesota dead, but losing at home to a Northwestern team that literally hadn't won in 2021 *should* be the death knell.

Boise State has a very similar resume as Bona so hopefully SD State finishes off the sweep on Saturday.

Stanford losing to Oregon makes it pretty tough for them to get in. They have some nice wins, but a 10 loss team in the 6th highest rated conference (including three losses outside the top 100) has no business in the tourney.
I am ready to delcare Minnesota dead but they have zombie potential. Mich St is still only 68 in NET but they are trending up. They have at Maryland and vs Michigan left plus the BIG tournament. So they still have some opportunities to play in. They can still get hurt because they have a ton of losses already and at some point you have too many losses and they are very close to that. They can afford to lose to Michigan and thats it.

Boise St seems like they are in unless they fall apart. I have them 1 spot above us but that was before last night. Hard to ding them for losing a close game to a good team on the road so they will probably stay close.

I agree on Stanford, its tough since they were without their best player and it was a close game. They have played 24 games this year and only 5 of them were on their home floor, that is nuts.

As far as Bonas is concerned, keep winning!
 

mlh

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St. Bonaventure
I agree on Stanford, its tough since they were without their best player and it was a close game. They have played 24 games this year and only 5 of them were on their home floor, that is nuts.

The NCAA reclassifying the 5 games they played in Santa Cruz from home to neutral is probably the only reason they're still in the conversation.

I have mixed feelings. It is 40 miles from campus and it wasn't their fault they couldn't play in their own building. At the same time, they probably had some familiarity with the facilities, they still have travel advantages over their opponents, and there are no fans anyway.

It bothers me a bit that our win in Cleveland over Akron is classified the same as their win in Santa Cruz over Washington State.
 

3rdShayCripSet

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St. Bonaventure
I am ready to delcare Minnesota dead but they have zombie potential. Mich St is still only 68 in NET but they are trending up. They have at Maryland and vs Michigan left plus the BIG tournament. So they still have some opportunities to play in. They can still get hurt because they have a ton of losses already and at some point you have too many losses and they are very close to that. They can afford to lose to Michigan and thats it.

Boise St seems like they are in unless they fall apart. I have them 1 spot above us but that was before last night. Hard to ding them for losing a close game to a good team on the road so they will probably stay close.

I agree on Stanford, its tough since they were without their best player and it was a close game. They have played 24 games this year and only 5 of them were on their home floor, that is nuts.

As far as Bonas is concerned, keep winning!
We have to win the next two plus one in A10s to feel safe. Add in the fact we don't want a bid thief from our conference.

Minnesota will be in the Dance. I am somewhat confident of that fact. (WHOOPS - did not realize they lost to NW)

My question is this.

Nine seems like the cap for the B1G. It's just whether that ninth team will be MSU, IU or Minnesota. IU I think has a better shot because they can still finish with a winning record which would include three great wins (IF they win out). But we have seen P5 get in at 8-10, so 9-11 would not be that bad for the Gophs.

UMN has so many good wins, but man, they have had their teeth kicked in a ton, too. One more loss before the B1G Tourney and I think they are cooked.
 

brownindians85

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I can't get past Colorado's Q3 losses, they've lost conference games they shouldn't lose. And the two wins over USC are because they're a tough matchup for USC. We see that kind of stuff in every conference, where a team just has someone's number. But, all that said, and I do think they're overrated, they're a tournament team. I don't like them and think they will be overseeded and a prime upset candidate.

I'm afraid Boise State is above us on the cut line. Their advantage is that they have a Q1 win OOC. Even if VCU gets to Q1, the "done nothing OOC" has been reason enough in the past and still will be.

Stanford is getting NET benefit because of those Neutral classified games. And they're still only at #60. It should be difficult for them to get in. They haven't lost games they shouldn't though. How there are 44 spots separating CO and Stanford, who knows, is it the better OOC performance?

'03, what is your opinion of Drake? A very interesting team sheet the way things shake out. Q1/4 games all at home, Q2/3 games all on road (1 neutral but in SD). SOS and average NET ranking of wins/losses way worse than us, but if you just glance at records and quads they look great. I hope they are a 1 bid league as well, and Loyola is a bit better.
 

Citizen X

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St. Bonaventure
I have been watching a few of these games involving bubble teams. Maybe I don't know what I'm seeing but I haven't been impressed with the quality of play. The games between VCU and SLU and the Bonnies and VCU seemed to be a higher level of basketball. We didn't have the normal season's OOC opportunities and then launched into a dystopian conference schedule of cannibalism and covid. In other words, I think our conference is underrated and there is no way to properly evaluate it based on the recent history. Just get us in that tourney and I think we'll get to the second week.
 

3rdShayCripSet

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St. Bonaventure
I have been watching a few of these games involving bubble teams. Maybe I don't know what I'm seeing but I haven't been impressed with the quality of play. The games between VCU and SLU and the Bonnies and VCU seemed to be a higher level of basketball. We didn't have the normal season's OOC opportunities and then launched into a dystopian conference schedule of cannibalism and covid. In other words, I think our conference is underrated and there is no way to properly evaluate it based on the recent history. Just get us in that tourney and I think we'll get to the second week.
To be fair to those bubble teams, we've had a handful of ugly games. But I agree, the Missouri Valley doesn't impress me nor does most of the Big East or AAC.

I think the Mountain West is very similar to us and I respect most of their programs. I hate the WCC and am easily offended when people think it's close to on par with the A10.

You can throw me any KenPom conference rating you want, but that conference is propped up annually by Gonzaga and BYU and is only three deep. The rest of the schools are irrelevant and rarely sustain any minimal success they have.
 

Bona03

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3rd Shay- I agree that the B1G is capped at 9. Unless 2 of Michigan St and Indiana or Minnesota plow their way into the final and beat Illinois, Michigan and Ohio St to do it, they will get at best 1 more. I think Mich ST is gonna do it and IU and MN are out. Momentum is strong for them.

There is a huge caveat here in that we dont know how they will treat teams that dont have a ton of good wins due to covid (like us) and teams that got blasted after pauses (Oregon twice, Louisville) Our resume stacks up with the other 9-10 seeds but we dont have a number of wins that stand out and one thing we learned form the top 16 reveal was they seemed to value wins. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programs.

BI - Colorado has been up and down and picked up a few head scratching losses for sure. We cant ignore their NET 16 and the other metrics have them in the teens and 20's too. Their 6-0 in Q2 which is probably helping a lot. Like you said, they have big upset potential and I would love to see the Bonnies facing them in a 6-11 matchup.

Stanford is 5-5 in Q1-2 and 0 bad losses, which is why they are in the thick of things. The metrics are the difference between them and CO. Stanford is in the 60s across the board. hard to pinpoint exactly why but its consistent.

Drake - I have them 1 spot below us. Its easy to knock them since they dont have much heft but they are a really good basketball team. I thikn they are going to stumble in the Valley being down their 2 best players but if they can make the final and lose to Loyola, I think they survive and I would love to see them make it. We should want to see a 2 bid vallye as long as it isnt at the expense of us. We are capped at 3. SLU or Richmond could join the party but not both.

Back to 3rd Shay - WCC sucks and I dont like them compared to us either. MWC is a great comparison, they are A10 west. Our challenge with them is a perfect marriage.

Keep this going, I have made changes to my seed list a few times based on researching ways to post in here. I dont have time like Joey Brackets to paw through every team so when I look at teams harder than I had before, it makes me reevaluate.
 
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3rdShayCripSet

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and I know nobody asked but this is what I have, feedback and questions appreciated

View attachment 277
Love that breakdown.

I think Xavier is pure fluff and will hopefully fall off the bubble soon. I'm not sure Richmond belongs, and think it's doubtful that they are in unless they kick ass down the stretch.

Stanford, Michigan State, Duke and GT all have a real good shot at making the tourney. I think they would take Rich, X and two other teams spots.

This is what I hate about this time of year. We are on eggshells playing games that can only hurt us while a nobody NC State picks up a random win here or there and comes into the fold.

Perhaps I'm a cynic, but if I am Drake, CSU, Bona and VCU. I am pretty nervous. The committee will take into consideration teams that played shortened OOCs, but there's no way they're going to throw out wins by the big boys.

Imagine it comes down to Bona and let's say Stanford. I'd be surprised they say, well Bona has no real wins out of conference due to the Covid, so let's penalize Stanford and throw out their win against Alabama.
 

Bona03

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St. Bonaventure
Love that breakdown.

I think Xavier is pure fluff and will hopefully fall off the bubble soon. I'm not sure Richmond belongs, and think it's doubtful that they are in unless they kick ass down the stretch.

Stanford, Michigan State, Duke and GT all have a real good shot at making the tourney. I think they would take Rich, X and two other teams spots.

This is what I hate about this time of year. We are on eggshells playing games that can only hurt us while a nobody NC State picks up a random win here or there and comes into the fold.

Perhaps I'm a cynic, but if I am Drake, CSU, Bona and VCU. I am pretty nervous. The committee will take into consideration teams that played shortened OOCs, but there's no way they're going to throw out wins by the big boys.

Imagine it comes down to Bona and let's say Stanford. I'd be surprised they say, well Bona has no real wins out of conference due to the Covid, so let's penalize Stanford and throw out their win against Alabama.
Richmond was the one a10 homer pick I had. If they lose tonight I'll get rid of them like uncle Phil tossing jazzy jeff. I really struggled with who else to put in and I wanted to fuck over Indiana, duke and Michigan st.

All us non power teams should be nervous but we are all in positions where winning solves everything. Drake is 1 loss from being out if its not loyola. Csu is one loss away period. Vcu for some reason is getting lots of love despite being no better than us.