The Bubble

SBUnfurled

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St. Bonaventure
With bubble talk sure to ramp up for us over the next month, it's time for a thread on the subject. Here is my last look at the bubble (through games Feb.10), with another update coming probably tomorrow. Feel free to post relevant results for bubble teams and whatever the hell else pertains to our at-large hopes and dreams.
TheBubbleFeb10.png
 

Bona03

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For some reason Lunardi moved Maryland in last night after their huge win over Nebraska. I dont see it. I dont care if they have the toughest schedule, they are 4-10 on Q1. We know what they are.
 

3rdShayCripSet

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I'm not sure I have a problem with 4-10 in Q1 IF they beat teams they shouldn't beat and lose to teams projected to be top seeds in the Tourney.

Maryland's Q1 wins are all pretty strong save maybe Minnesota, and they are still a tourney team at this time. They have a few blowout losses, but only one maybe two against non-NCAA teams.

So Maryland has wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota x2, and Purdue.

Losses at Clemson by 16, Rutgers by 14, at Purdue by 3, Michigan by 11, at IU by 8, Iowa by 22, at Michigan by 23, Wisconsin by 6, at Penn State by 5, Ohio State by 8.

Other than not competing at Michigan and Iowa, there only real blemish is Penn State. For a bubble team, that's not bad. They finish with winnable games, so I bet that's why people are projecting them to be in.

People should have more of an issue with people projecting UNC team be in the Dance! ZERO wins against the projected field. Maryland's resume is way better than theirs and IU's.
 

SBUnfurled

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Richmond and Utah State were tough decisions (the former probably depends on how much you want an outright A10 Title; the latter is close to a toss-up at the moment). Both games have re-matches scheduled as well.

RootingInterestFeb17.png
 
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Bona03

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St. Bonaventure
I'm not sure I have a problem with 4-10 in Q1 IF they beat teams they shouldn't beat and lose to teams projected to be top seeds in the Tourney.

Maryland's Q1 wins are all pretty strong save maybe Minnesota, and they are still a tourney team at this time. They have a few blowout losses, but only one maybe two against non-NCAA teams.

So Maryland has wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota x2, and Purdue.

Losses at Clemson by 16, Rutgers by 14, at Purdue by 3, Michigan by 11, at IU by 8, Iowa by 22, at Michigan by 23, Wisconsin by 6, at Penn State by 5, Ohio State by 8.

Other than not competing at Michigan and Iowa, there only real blemish is Penn State. For a bubble team, that's not bad. They finish with winnable games, so I bet that's why people are projecting them to be in.

People should have more of an issue with people projecting UNC team be in the Dance! ZERO wins against the projected field. Maryland's resume is way better than theirs and IU's.
Agree 100% on UNC. I took them out of my bracket after looking closer at them. I can see the point on Maryland but if they were not a tourney team 24 hours ago and all that changed was they beat Nebraska at home, no thanks you can still sit on the sidelines for now. Maryland's WAB is -.31 which means they do worse against their schedule than the average bubble team.
 
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3rdShayCripSet

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Agree 100% on UNC. I took them out of my bracket after looking closer at them. I can see the point on Maryland but if they were not a tourney team 24 hours ago and all that changed was they beat Nebraska at home, no thanks you can still sit on the sidelines for now. Maryland's WAB is -.31 which means they do worse against their schedule than the average bubble team.
Agreed.

I do not how they project their bracket, but Maryland could roll four of five to finish 10-10 in the B1G...Maybe that's what people are seeing?

Growing up, I never thought we'd see the day a team that was 8-12, 7-11 would make the tournament, but with the consolidation of powers into a few conferences, you will have years where 9/10 make it like the Big 12 did a few years back.

Not saying it's right, but when all of your losses are "quality" and you beat a bunch of NCAA squads, you will be in the discussion.

A10 knows this and it won't change. I've said it a bunch, but if we could get who's ever at the bottom to buy in to playing more home games against winnable squads, conf win % goes up and then you have less Q3 and Q4 games/teams in your conference.

AAC is a decent example of this. Their shit teams really have started to improve their win percentage, so they don't have a ton of teams north of 180, but their top clubs can't beat anyone.

A10 outside of Dayton has a putrid record against the powers. If we want more teams to make the tourney, every team has to perform better OOC.

Not to single out Davidson because they are awesome, but they are something like 2-21 vs. ACC/SEC/B1G/PAC/B12 over the last six years. Even VCU has an awful record against the same comp.

Davidson would be almost a lock for the dance if they beat UT, Charlotte and Providence.
 

mlh

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St. Bonaventure
What a great night. In addition to the Davidson sweep:

North Carolina loses to Marquette at home by double digits.

Seton Hall continues to freefall and takes a loss at Butler by 9.

Rutgers blows out Indiana.

Xavier is down 10 to Providence at half. Even if they come back, our resume is objectively better.

Other fraudulent power conference resumes: Colorado (three bed losses inflated by Q2 wins over NIT hopefuls), Louisville (no Q1 wins, a bad loss, 1 win against tourney/real bubble teams), Minnesota (laughable), Virginia (way overseeded). That’s without getting into all of the circular resumes who go 2-7 with 5 home games against premier teams and then just split with everyone else in the circle jerk.
 

Bona03

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X didnt give it to you as they went down too. Great night for us. Lunardi said we would still be in last night had we lost so I have to imagine we are a good 4-5 spots in the clear right now, which is where we need to be. Bid stealers could take a few spots. That is what happened in 2018, we didnt fall to the FF, it caught up to us as spots disappeared. Anyway, the conference is ours for the taking along with a 10 seed or an 8-9 if we win out and capture the title. TBH, I would rather have a 10 and avoid a 1 seed.
 

3rdShayCripSet

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Jan 18, 2020
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What a great night. In addition to the Davidson sweep:

North Carolina loses to Marquette at home by double digits.

Seton Hall continues to freefall and takes a loss at Butler by 9.

Rutgers blows out Indiana.

Xavier is down 10 to Providence at half. Even if they come back, our resume is objectively better.

Other fraudulent power conference resumes: Colorado (three bed losses inflated by Q2 wins over NIT hopefuls), Louisville (no Q1 wins, a bad loss, 1 win against tourney/real bubble teams), Minnesota (laughable), Virginia (way overseeded). That’s without getting into all of the circular resumes who go 2-7 with 5 home games against premier teams and then just split with everyone else in the circle jerk.
As good as I feel about the above teams losing, we sure has hell know Georgia Tech is close to creeping into the picture. Maybe Michigan State, too.
 

Bona03

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As good as I feel about the above teams losing, we sure has hell know Georgia Tech is close to creeping into the picture. Maybe Michigan State, too.
True, but they are taking spots from Indiana, Xavier, Seton Hall. Not us. We definitely need to watch Sparty, Duke and Tech closely. It would help if Houston would take the AAC back from Wichita St too. We also want Duq and Davidson to win games, they can add 3 Q2 wins to our ledger if they move up a little.

I am trying to work my last 4 in and I cant figure out who to keep. 3 of the 4 lost last night and Stanford is the only team I really would move in right now. Richmond is close. I dont want to put in Minnesota (barf).
 
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brownindians85

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Michigan State beat Duke, granted early in the season, and they are barely on the bubble. You'd think Duke has to do an awful lot to get in at this point, but you know Duke is getting in because, well, Duke. Georgia Tech has no business being anywhere near the tournament unless they win ACC's. Two Q3 home losses and their ACC resume is inflated because the ACC isn't as good as people think. Colorado is a fraud, as is the Pac-12 in general.. but they racked up the OOC wins they needed. Keep your eye on schools like UConn, UCLA, Arizona, UNC, Missouri, VaTech. They will somehow excuse a singular Q3 loss in favor of Q1/2 win total which as we know is usually accompanied by a shitty %.

I think we're going to see the mediocre, barf-worthy P5's get in this year. It's going to be at the expense of some deserving non-power schools, we would just have to hope we aren't one of those schools if we're in position to dance.

ETA: Creighton a lock? BE is not that great are they?! Their only OOC worth watching was a 1 point loss to KU. One of those "good losses". 3 Q3 losses. This is why the A10 needs to schedule to win OOC games in bunches. Then the top teams can go out and try and find some P5 matchups and it won't kill us if they don't result in wins.
 
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Bona03

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Youre right BI, although looking close at GT, they have a decent resume except they fucked up twice to start the year. When you look at this group, you can poke holes in all of them:
1614263657188.png

Who should be in that last spot? I cant fucking make up my mind. I dont think X even deserves it right now but they dont have any "bad losses: but they sure are piling up losses lately. The bubble is really weak this year mainly because Duke, Kentucky and Michigan St are all down. If those 2 were in, then these other crap teams would be out easily. I really hate to say it but Duke has the best resume of that group. Richmond is 1 win away I think.
 

brownindians85

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Seton Hall had no bad losses until Georgetown. No great wins either, swept by Vill/Crei, and I don't consider PSU a great win.
Richmond we know well, home losses to Hofstra and LaSalle aren't as bad as they look but do you no favors. Too many covid pauses (and D3 games) to rack up wins.
Indiana lost to NW, swept Iowa, but other than that all their B1G wins are bubbly or crap. OOC they beat Stanford and Butler at home which don't really move the needle given Pac-12 and BE.
And then there's Duke. The Duke that lost to Michigan State, got pummeled by Illinois, and then quit their OOC - make no mistake, it was a quitting. And have 1 good ACC win, over UVA. Their best showing in the ACC (IMO) was beating the snot out of Clemson.

If I have to pick from those 4, I take Seton Hall at this point, followed by IU.

Edit: I'd actually put both in and take Stanford out. I don't believe in the Pac-12. You spend much more time on this than I do though.
 

mlh

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Jan 1, 2020
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St. Bonaventure
North Carolina shouldn't be in as of today.

They've had five chances against solid NCAA tournament teams and lost them all. They're 3-1 against the bubble (wins @Duke, Louisville, Stanford. Loss @ GaTech), but Duke/GaTech are fringe bubble, Stanford's probably on the outside looking in, and the one win worth mentioning was Louisville coming off a long COVID pause. Two losses to teams with no shot including last night's home Q3 defeat to Marquette. Like everyone in the ACC, they feast on Q2 fluff. 6-1 Q2, but only two were road games and 5 out of 7 aren't in the NCAA discussion. They beat NC Central at home by 6!
 

Bona03

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St. Bonaventure
Seton Hall lost to Butler last night so thats another loss.
Stanford has a 4-5 Q1 record which isnt bad. They smoked Alabama which carries some weight and the PAC 12 isnt that bad, its better than you think.
North Carolina has one foot onthe banana peel but 7-7 in Q1,Q2 is pretty solid when you compare them to these other teams. The metrics all like them too and before you slam them, the metrics like us too.

Like I have said, all of these teams are flawed, that is why they are where they are.
 
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