The Bonnies: 2022-2023 Season Thread

[3rdShayCripSet]

They had their usual lull last night but luckily had a large enough lead to not be the end all. Schmidt even alluded to it post game so its not lost on the staff. I never felt the game was in danger at least but I saw the same things Jive pointed out. They usually shoot better from the line so missing 8 is not a big concern. On to Loyola. For the love of God can we pick up a road win?

The FT shooting has been a MAJOR issue all year and it hasn't really improved all that much. We are currently 233rd in the country in FT%

We desperately need to win the next two games if we have any hope of securing a top 4 seed.

Loyola and Fordham are both games we should win, but then we go at VCU, at Rich and then home against Dayton. We could easily lose all three games there.

If we are at least 6-5 going into that home game against La Salle, we will be in great shape. I feel like 10 wins could get you a top 4 spot in the A10 this year.

 

[1946TobaccoBowlMVP]

I think the defense especially early fuled the big offensive surge. Once Venning went out with his 3rd foul in the second half seemed to be the start of Duquesne run. Mellouk just coulfnt defend the post. I was a little surprised we didnt see Max at that point but I thonk its been 2 games in a row now that he hasn't played.

 

[Community Bank 3Pt Tee]

Double bye at 10-8 would be a nice bonus, but honestly I want to get to 10-8 to ensure not finishing with a losing record.

Outside of Dayton, we've had our 4 toughest home games and gone 4-0. We should expect to win against SJ, Fordham, LaSalle, GW at home. That brings us to 8 wins.

On the flip side, it's reasonable to expect losses to Dayton, VCU, and I think return wins for a sweep of UR, UMass and Duq are all going to be very, very tough. That brings us to 8 losses.

Obviously things dont always go as expected, but against reasonable expectations, this makes tomorrow and at Fordham crucial to get to that. It would be their first losing record in a decade. Maybe nothing but a vanity wish. I for one though don't want to see a losing record.

 

[brownindians85]

In this conference.. yeah we don't want a losing record. A10 turning into a dumpster fire of a league as a whole. I'm really surprised to see Loyola-Chicago winless. I expected more of a Davidson-like entrance. If securing a top 4 is possible then LUC is a must-win. Even if not in the running, it's a must-win. We need to see something away from the RC and LUC really hasn't been competitive.

Jump on them early with that defense they played against Duquesne, and work on half-court offense. Fewer iso-drives by our PG and more kickout passes from Chad would be a welcome sight. I like Luc but play your role. When he drives into 2 (or 3) trees, surely someone is open to pass to right? When they collapse on Chad as he backs in, someone should be freed up. But defense.. our guys are solid when they force transition.

 

[res]

If we are at least 6-5 going into that home game against La Salle, we will be in great shape. I feel like 10 wins could get you a top 4 spot in the A10 this year.

10-8 might get you a top 4, but you're gonna have to win a clusterfuck of a tie- breaker to get there. The arithmetic of a 15 team league almost guarantees that.

 

[Bona03]

10-8 is a pipe dream the way this team plays on the road

 

[3rdShayCripSet]

10-8 is a pipe dream the way this team plays on the road

I will settle for 9-9. One loss at home to Dayton and one road win...somewhere..maybe?

There's no way they can go 0-13 on the road, right?

 

[Bona03]

I will settle for 9-9. One loss at home to Dayton and one road win...somewhere..maybe?

There's no way they can go 0-13 on the road, right?

Loyola and Rhody are the 2 worst teams in this conference (IMO) and they couldnt beat them on the road. I mean they have to get one eventually but I am not betting on it.

 

[Jive36]

Schmidt needs to go back to the drawing board on his answer to teams going on runs, whether its timeouts, substitutions a go to play, idk but we need an answer.

Last year it was a problem and he took the Phil Jackson let them play out of it approach, which I understood if you are only going to play 5 guys and they are all experienced seniors. Sometime around thanksgiving i went through last year's loses and counted the number of runs we gave up per KP and in almost every loss we gave up a huge run without producing a counter run and had to grind back into games possession by possession. That doesn't seem like a formula that is adding win shares.

This year I just dont understand it. I'm not watching a closely so maybe he is intervening more in those spots and I'm just missing it/forgetting about it.

We have been incredibly spoiled by good to great teams the last decade. Someone on twitter thought this was Schmidt's worst team at Bonas and my intitial reaction was that it couldnt be having been a student the first couple of years and seeing how bad some of those teams were up close. But looking at KP this team has a chance to be his second worst team only ahead of the year one team that was in need of a total rebuild.

 

[Jive36]

As far as the actual on court product. We foul so much and its not only the centers who other than OO have always had foul issues in Schmidt's traditional lineups. Rumple, Flowers, Farell and Hill all get called for more that 4 fouls per 40 minutes. That means we are constantly in foul trouble. The only guys who aren't are Banks and Evans. Luc averages 3 fouls per 40 and while that keeps him out of trouble personally when your whole team is foul happy your opponent gets to the bonus and gets a lot of free trips to the line.

On offense the ball sticks Luc has a similar assist rate and turnover rate to Lofton's last season, but we arent getting secondary playmaking. Flowers is our best secondary playmaker but we aren't getting much outside of Luc when he is off the floor. (now might be a good time to state again how wrong i was about flowers early in the season, he belongs at this level and is a great 6th man for us.) Even going back to the 2018 team Mobley and Stockard contributed more playmaking than we are getting from any of our other starters this season.

I noticed last night that Fordham didn't bother extending out on Rumpel, and realized he hasn't taken a single 3 this season. I really wanted to see him and Evans succeed but neither can be effective if they are 100% divers/slashers and provide no floor spacing. Fordham not having to stay home on guys let them over pursue on Banks and Flowers making it hard to get them the ball while making it hard to enter the ball to the post even when we had a mismatch inside. It looked like Fordham was happy to let us try to feed the mismatch and then double if we made the pass successfully because they didnt have to worry about recovering to shooters.

 

[Bona03]

As far as the actual on court product. We foul so much and its not only the centers who other than OO have always had foul issues in Schmidt's traditional lineups. Rumple, Flowers, Farell and Hill all get called for more that 4 fouls per 40 minutes. That means we are constantly in foul trouble. The only guys who aren't are Banks and Evans. Luc averages 3 fouls per 40 and while that keeps him out of trouble personally when your whole team is foul happy your opponent gets to the bonus and gets a lot of free trips to the line.

On offense the ball sticks Luc has a similar assist rate and turnover rate to Lofton's last season, but we arent getting secondary playmaking. Flowers is our best secondary playmaker but we aren't getting much outside of Luc when he is off the floor. (now might be a good time to state again how wrong i was about flowers early in the season, he belongs at this level and is a great 6th man for us.) Even going back to the 2018 team Mobley and Stockard contributed more playmaking than we are getting from any of our other starters this season.

I noticed last night that Fordham didn't bother extending out on Rumpel, and realized he hasn't taken a single 3 this season. I really wanted to see him and Evans succeed but neither can be effective if they are 100% divers/slashers and provide no floor spacing. Fordham not having to stay home on guys let them over pursue on Banks and Flowers making it hard to get them the ball while making it hard to enter the ball to the post even when we had a mismatch inside. It looked like Fordham was happy to let us try to feed the mismatch and then double if we made the pass successfully because they didnt have to worry about recovering to shooters.

This also led to a few turnovers because the entry passes were stolen because they were forced. This team has no identity whatsoever. They used to be able to at least force turnovers and get out and score in transition/fast break. They had 0 fast break points last night. A sampling of texts from me and my friends:

"what the fuck are they doing out there?"
"embarrassing"
"not our finest moment"
"goodnight"
"fugly"
"getting fuglier"
"looks like a bunch of juco guys in the A10"
"feels like its the same game all the time"
"lack of basic offensive fundamentals"
"I only see 3-4 wins the rest of the season"
"I dont see any wins I can count on"
"at least nobody has been stabbed by a screwdriver"
"at least nobody has been stabbed by a screwdriver YET"
"Im thinking about stabbing myself with a screwdriver"

Good times!

 

[Community Bank 3Pt Tee]

Someone on twitter thought this was Schmidt's worst team at Bonas and my intitial reaction was that it couldnt be having been a student the first couple of years and seeing how bad some of those teams were up close. But looking at KP this team has a chance to be his second worst team only ahead of the year one team that was in need of a total rebuild.

I had this thought last night, I think it is. I cant think of a worse team outside of year one. 2008-09 had some okay players, more physical maturity and when all is said and done, probably will have fared better against stronger conference competition. There is no progression, in any aspect. This team is at best inconsistent and easily scouted, if not regressing.

Several positions have holes, where complimentary players are playing larger roles. There’s a lot of reasons. Some of it is guys who are just not all that good. Some of it is guys who are still raw or inexperienced. Some of it is guys playing out of position. Whatever my opinion is worth, which is probably not much, I see only 3 guys who would crack the rotation of an A10 team with NCAAT aspirations. Maybe a 4th if Luc played off ball, but there is no sample size on that.

We reloaded in 2019 vs rebuilt. Part of me thinks (hopes) its been long enough since we’ve rebuilt, that its easy to forget how much of a slog it can be. Rebuilding includes a year or two of ugly, shit basketball featuring guys who aren't really in the long term plans.

I also can't pretend that there isn't a part of me, albeit a small one, who worries last year's face plant + this year is a concerning sign of Schmidt having lost his touch. It's probably crazy talk, but I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind.

 

[Bona03]

I had this thought last night, I think it is. I cant think of a worse team outside of year one. 2008-09 had some okay players, more physical maturity and when all is said and done, probably will have fared better against stronger conference competition. There is no progression, in any aspect. This team is at best inconsistent and easily scouted, if not regressing.

Several positions have holes, where complimentary players are playing larger roles. There’s a lot of reasons. Some of it is guys who are just not all that good. Some of it is guys who are still raw or inexperienced. Some of it is guys playing out of position. Whatever my opinion is worth, which is probably not much, I see only 3 guys who would crack the rotation of an A10 team with NCAAT aspirations. Maybe a 4th if Luc played off ball, but there is no sample size on that.

We reloaded in 2019 vs rebuilt. Part of me thinks (hopes) its been long enough since we’ve rebuilt, that its easy to forget how much of a slog it can be. Rebuilding includes a year or two of ugly, shit basketball featuring guys who aren't really in the long term plans.

I also can't pretend that there isn't a part of me, albeit a small one, who worries last year's face plant + this year is a concerning sign of Schmidt having lost his touch. It's probably crazy talk, but I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind.

I'll dox myself, I was the one who said that on Twitter. When I said it, it was reactionary and I figured it was not true but close. Now that I see Jive has sort of validated the statement, it makes this even tougher for the reasons you described above. Schmidt took over a train wreck and we knew it would take a little time. This just feels different. Perhaps the good November was fools gold but they played decent ball. This, I dont know what the fuck this is.

As far as Schmidt goes, I dont know. I dont think coaches just lose their touch like that. Last year sucked, but those guys were awesome early, then sucked and dealt with the Lofton injury and then got back into form for the NIT. I dont think that was the staff, I think the players pulled their heads out of their asses finally as they saw the door closing on the season. Why they didnt do that a few weeks or a month earlier is beyond me.

In one of the few places I ranted last night, someone said Schmidt needs to dumb down the playbook. I said I think he already has. We dont see any of the sets we saw last few years and the plays that were successful are not being run. CB3 is totally right in that we have been spoiled. I really really want to and need to be more patient with these guys but when we arent seeing success or even small steps forward, its tough.

 

[1946TobaccoBowlMVP]

I also can't pretend that there isn't a part of me, albeit a small one, who worries last year's face plant + this year is a concerning sign of Schmidt having lost his touch. It's probably crazy talk, but I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind.

I was thinking something along the same lines. Not so much has he lost his touch but does he have to make some adjustments to his style gien the current landscape of college basketball.

1) With so many transfers year in and year I think Schmidt has to limit the playbook. This year the floor spacing is terrible and he's said many times if one player is out of postion the entire play is screwed. Last year the bench players were moving at half speed vs the starters. Unless 90% of these guys comeback next year the staff just has to start over and reteach everything. Not sure it works in this era.

2) I dont believe he values the 3 point shot enough. The pack the line D gives up way to many open looks. And it just doesnt seem to recruit enoughh shooters. I know this seems wierd to say I just always feel like every team Bonas plays has better shooters and does a better job of hitting open 3's.

3)Again with so many new players it i think it makes more sense to simplify the defense like the offense.
The double teams arent working. Recently both Loyola and aFordham shot well of 50% in the second half because guys were getting wide open layups. Also teams have swung the ball around the premiter just to have our guys chase the passes untill the ball winds up with wide open shooters.

4) Lucs Banks and Flowers is small lineup for the A10 I'd like to see Hill play the 4 more with Yann or Berry at the 3 with Flowers spelling Banks at the 2. Gives the Bonnies much needed size at the 4 and 3 since Yann is only 6'6". Also some times Yann gets out musceled by older players. Id also swith Hill and Mallouk at the 4 and 5. Mellouk just gets scored over to easy and I think would be a better defensive fit at the 4

Sometimes I think Schmidt is just too set in his ways. If everyone stays and they winn a ton next year then this year will be more successful than it seems right now. If not then I'm affrais we will be having the same conversation next year.

 

[3rdShayCripSet]

I have no idea what to say about this team. There aren't many players I'd want back next year. Is the year over, no...but I am a lot less optimistic than I was a couple of weeks ago.

Can't really blame this on Schmidt as he is pretty much like a first year HC that taking over for a coach that got canned in the early spring. He put together the best team he could with only a few months to work with.

This team will get better if they all return, but it's not an NCAA tourney team. I don't think people want to hear it, but I think we might not be a legitimate contender until '24-'25 unless we get some impact players.

Besides Venning, we don't have many players that have a lot of fire/size toughness. Team doesn't really have a leader and it shows.

The goal for the offseason will hopefully be a PG and a PF. I really don't want to pile on Luc because I think he's forced to lead an absolute dog shit offense. Similar to Marques Green after the scandal...He had to do it all and his offensive stats suffered.

 

[Bona03]

I am not ready to throw the whole team in the trash just yet. Farell has shown he is a good player but has been inconsistent and I think Evans will develop. If we can get more consistency out of them, things should be better next year.

Totally agree on the toughness. That is why we are such a bad rebounding team.

 

[3rdShayCripSet]

I am not ready to throw the whole team in the trash just yet. Farell has shown he is a good player but has been inconsistent and I think Evans will develop. If we can get more consistency out of them, things should be better next year.

Totally agree on the toughness. That is why we are such a bad rebounding team.

Agree with you on the younger players. Farell, Evan, Luc and Venning are all valuable as they have three more years of eligibility.

Banks would be fine, too, but after that it's tough. I could be swayed either way, but returning the entire starting roster and expecting great leaps forward next year seems like a long shot.

My win total over/under before the year was 17. Not sure we will hit that, but I still believe this team can we some games against this schedule. VCU game should be fun to watch.

 

[Bona03]

I wont try to predict anything the rest of the way. I just never know which team will show up and for how long. I will say they will only be favored in 2 games the rest of the way: La Salle and St Joes at home.

 

[brownindians85]

I am not ready to throw the whole team in the trash just yet. Farell has shown he is a good player but has been inconsistent and I think Evans will develop. If we can get more consistency out of them, things should be better next year.

I think you can find something to like about all the guys seeing playing time when you look at them individually. But for some reason we can't find a 5 man combination of them that plays well together on the court.

If you had to blow this whole thing up and build around a set of guys for next season who would it be? I can convince myself a reason to keep every one of them. But if all this group needed was time to get it together wouldn't they already be showing improvement as we approach February? Other than Banks and Flowers, they're all young. They're all in their first year at SBU. Is it just the fact that we don't have a true PG? Would having a Jaylen Adams make every player on the court instantly better? If so, then get a PG and let Luc play off the ball. I'd rather see what they can do with someone trained to run an offense than have another revolving door summer and a fresh 8 or 9 guys next season. If they still can't get it together, who knows, but there's no guarantee roster haul 2.0 goes any better than this season.

 

[tastylicks]

It was a pretty good game last night. But let’s talk about the trim and drapery in that building. Wow. Now that’s how you decorate.

Maybe we can get that superfan broad from the commonwealth to come spruce up the RC. A woman’s touch is what we need