Halfway Point

Jive36

Active member
Nov 20, 2019
95
170
Team
St. Bonaventure
Sunday marked the official halfway point of A10 play. I thought it would be a good idea to look at the remaining schedules and project out the remaining games. I did a similar analysis when the A10 pairings were first released this summer and so far there hasn't been much Mayhem no matter what a certain twitter personality might tell you. I do believe there will be more Mayhem in the second half of the season. So far my preseason picks have been right 76%* of the time.

*Disclaimer: that is a juiced number as I've taken the win in the first matchup anytime i had teams splitting the head to head and fully expect to be closer to 50-55% correct by the end of the year.

Anyhow this is the format I'm going with, listing teams in current standings order then: Team, Current A10 record, Projected Second half wins, predicted finish: - Remaining Schedule - Comments.

I only factored in tie breakers for the top 4.

Dayton:
9-0, 7, First: - SLU, URI, Duq, Dav, GW, @UMass, @VCU, @Mason, @URI: I'm not sure Dayton actually loses two games but odds are that someone catches fire against them and they have an off day. At this point they are just playing for seeding in the big dance. My guess for the games they lose is Arch Baron Cup 2 and @URI.

URI: 8-1, 6, Second: - UMass, SJU, SLU, Dayton, @GW, @Dayton, @Dav, @Umass, @For: I feel more confident in URI winning 6 more games than Dayton losing 2. URI has the 10th weakest remaining schedule and that is with playing Dayton twice.

VCU: 6-3, 5, Tied 5-8th: - Dav, Mason, Dayton, GW, Duq, @Rich, @SLU, @UMass, @Dav: Am I a glutton for trouble? Maybe, predicting VCU will fall out of the top 4 is asking for it, but that is what the mute/block button is for. SLU, Dayton, Richmond and Davidson beat the Rams. SLU is too physical, Dayton is Dayton, Richmond if they get Francis back has enough ball handling to deal with the pressure, and even through Davidson hasn't given me any reason to believe it I still think they are ok and have the guards to split the series with VCU.

Richmond: 6-3, 6, Fourth: - VCU, Mason, Umass, Dav, @ For, @LaSalle, @SBU, @GW, @Duq: A ton rides on the Richmond/Bonnies game, Saturday night in the RC is a bright light and a tough place to be the opposing team. If Richmond doesn't steal the VCU game the Bonnies game could essentially be a play-in for the 4 seed.

SLU: 6-3, 5, Tied 5-8th: Duq, LaSalle, SJU, VCU, SBU, @ Dayton, @Umass, @URI, @Mason: This is probably my worst prediction but I weight FTs heavily in close games. If Perkins is really a stud then throw this prediction out the window. Edit: I'm not comfortable in the games I picked SLU to lose but am comfortable with their final record being 11-7.

Duquesne: 6-3, 5, Tied 5-8th: SBU, GW, Mason, Rich, @SLU, @For, @Day, @SBU, @VCU: Duquesne continues to be the Schrodinger's cat of the A10, both good and bad at the same time. Really the Duqs odds in any game can be calculated by whether TDM is contributing or not. In their 5 loses TDM has scored 9, 3, 6, 1, 14. The 14 was vs Dayton otherwise if TDM gets to double figures Duquesne wins.

SBU: 6-3, 6, Third: GW, Dav, Rich, Duq, SJU, @Duq, @SJU, @LaSalle, @SLU: The numbers say Richmond has the weakest remaining schedule of the top 8 teams, however I'd take the Bonnies remaining schedule over Richmond's. I predict they split the games with Duquesne, lose to Davidson (McKillop is Schmidt's kryptonite), and slip up @LaSalle. Tom Gola Arena is always a house of horrors for the Bonnies. I discussed the Richmond game above it has a ton of implications, as does the SLU game but the homer in me says the Bonnies get revenge for the championship loss.

Davidson: 5-4, 6, Tied 5-8th: For, URI, LaSalle, VCU, @VCU, @SBU, @SJU, @Day, @Rich: Dear Davidson, I just can't quit you. Sincerely Jive

GW: 4-5, 3, Ninth: URI, LaSalle, Rich, For, @SBU, @Mason, @Duq, @VCU, @Day: GW is sneaky good. The games I've watched they are dependent on 3s dropping. When they get hot they are dangerous and I think they can creep up on one of the 5-8th teams. I'm really impressed with how well they have played at times this season.

UMass: 3-6, 1, Pillow Fighter: Mason, Dayton, SLU, VCU, URI, @URI, @For, @Rich, @Lasalle: This was the easiest team to predict because all the road games could be marked as losses and the only meh team they play at home is Mason. Sorry Umass faithful, McCall needs to prove he can win one road game against anyone before I buy in at all. And sorry Mason fans I think UMass bounces back after that god awful Davidson performance and has a good game and gets the Mason monkey off its back.

George Mason: 2-7, 2, Pillow Fighter: GW, SJU, Dayton, SLU, @Umass, @VCU, @Rich, @Duq, @For: Could Mason get out of the Wednesday night showcase? Yes Take care of Fordham in the final game of the year and you have a tiebreaker vs LaSalle my current tenth ranked team.

LaSalle: 1-8, 4, Tenth, SJU, Rich, For, SBU, Umass, @SLU, @GW, @Dav, @SJU: I'm not sure which is less likely, LaSalle beating SLU or Bonaventure. I have watched very few LaSalle games because their commentators are migraine inducing, so a lot of this is based on them being competitive in their last two games. After my SLU prediction this is my second least comfortable take.

Fordham: 1-8, 3, Pillow Fighter: Rich, Duq, Umass, URI, Mason, @Dav, @Lasalle, @SJU, @GW: I get having Fordham getting to 4 wins is too many and goes against the meme. They have at least one more game against all the other pillow fight contenders and I think they get 3 wins in those 5 games.

SJU: 0-9, 4, Pillow Fighter: SBU, Dav, For, Lasalle, @LaSalle, @URI, @Mason, @SBU, @SLU: Joes is getting what it deserves after the way they parted with Martelli. I didn't like the guy but respected him more than the incoming administration did. Ryan Daly has had some Herculean efforts this year and I think he gets this team across the finish line in a few games on the back half.
 
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GrantLabedz

Moderator
Nov 12, 2019
601
111
Team
Davidson
I think the race for the double bye in Brooklyn got even more confusing after last night...

Dayton & Rhode Island are nearly locks at this point for the #1 and #2 (in some order if URI can pull off an upset), but if the season ended today, it'd be Duquesne and St. Bonaventure grabbing the other 2 spots. Granted, both teams have played an extra game compared to VCU & Richmond (who I think are more likely to snag those spots at the end of the day), and Kenpom projects those 2 to go 12-6 in league play while it projects Bona and DUQ to both go 11-7. After losing at home to Duquesne, I think it's safe to say Saint Louis is starting to fall out of this race, especially with a road game against Dayton coming up.

The Dukes have a pretty easy next 3 games, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them in that 3rd spot for another week or two. Will be interesting to see if the Dukes are able to edge either Richmond or VCU and grab that double bye in Brooklyn.
 

Jive36

Active member
Nov 20, 2019
95
170
Team
St. Bonaventure
So for the record at the halfway point my prediction was:
1. Dayton
2. URI
3. Bonnies
4. Richmond
5-8. Duquesne, Davidson, SLU, and VCU
9. GW
10. LaSalle
11-14. UMass, George Mason, St. Joes, Fordham
 

Jive36

Active member
Nov 20, 2019
95
170
Team
St. Bonaventure
With 3 games left it looks like I sold UMass short and over estimated VCU (who saw them losing 5 straight?)

3-4 is still a toss up with SLU in the conversation to jump into the 4 spot. 5-7 is still a jumbled mess (thank you Davidson for bouncing back)

UMass vs LaSalle March 4th could be a big game, if LaSalle pulls the upset over the Bonnies this weekend, as a Bonnie fan I'm still convinced that is happening.
 

GrantLabedz

Moderator
Nov 12, 2019
601
111
Team
Davidson
With 3 games left it looks like I sold UMass short and over estimated VCU (who saw them losing 5 straight?)

3-4 is still a toss up with SLU in the conversation to jump into the 4 spot. 5-7 is still a jumbled mess (thank you Davidson for bouncing back)

UMass vs LaSalle March 4th could be a big game, if LaSalle pulls the upset over the Bonnies this weekend, as a Bonnie fan I'm still convinced that is happening.
Not a bad halfway point prediction, especially for the top 4. Props...