Cannibalization, The Metrics, and Some History

Cole Vulpis · Jan 19, 2021

It seemed like it was a daily occurrence at one point where analyst Jon Rothstein would tweet, "The Atlantic 10 continues to cannibalize itself." The image above illustrates this point. Please excuse my bad photoshop! The A10 has beat up on itself a lot in just the first few weeks of conference play, and this tends to hurt teams at the top from emerging as at-large bid contenders. This past week, however, something exciting happened. Unless you count Rhode Island's road OT loss to UMass, there was no disappointing cannibalization last week! While the conference is on this high note, or rather this not-low note, I thought I'd take a moment to highlight how the Atlantic 10 teams are doing across the metrics, and throw in my limited knowledge of some relevant history. I am very new at this so feel free to add in the comments or offer corrections! (Information updated through 10AM EST on 1/20/21.)

The Conference

In what looked to be one of the conference's most promising year since the 2013-2014 season, many teams delivered on that promise. Other teams did not. The conference went 6-2 this year against the SEC, but don't look at their record against the Colonial! The conference also averages a 114.4 ranking in the KenPom. This ranks the conference 8th, behind the American (average 93.4) and ahead of the West Coast (average 121.4) and the Mountain West (average 157.1). Power 8, baby!! This number hasn't really deviated since non-conference play began and won't vary much by the time the season ends. I would give the NET average too, but based on Fordham's 331 ranking, I don't think it will look too pretty.

Saint Louis

Overall Record: 7-1
A10 Record: 0-0
AP Poll Rank: #25
Coach's Poll Rank: Receiving votes
KenPom Rank: #31
NET Rank: #17
BPI Rank: #26
Joe Lunardi Bracketology (ESPN): 8 seed
Jerry Palm Bracketology (CBS): 6 seed
Team Rankings Bracketology: 9 seed, 67.5% bid, 33.7% auto bid, 33.8% at-large bid, projected 21-4

Saint Louis has not played since December 23, so there isn't really much new to say. Saint Louis has a truly star-studded starting 5, so it will be exciting to see how they fare in the A10. This week they were ranked in the AP Poll for the third straight week. Saint Louis, who was the first ever team ranked #1 in the AP Poll, has now been ranked in the AP Poll for 114 weeks. This ties their Arch Baron rival Dayton at the top of A10 schools with the most weeks ranked in program history. They would certainly regain their lead over Dayton if their home game against St. Bonaventure on Saturday happens and they win.

Richmond

Overall Record: 9-3
A10 Record: 3-1
Coach's Poll Rank: Receiving votes
KenPom Rank: #50
NET Rank: #55
BPI Rank: #40
Joe Lunardi Bracketology (ESPN): First four out
Jerry Palm Bracketology (CBS): First four out
Team Rankings Bracketology: 11 seed, 57.9% bid, 15.8% auto bid, 42.1% at-large bid, projected 18-7

Richmond really feels like a mini-Iowa this year, with seniors dominating their starting lineup and a much higher offensive KenPom score than defensive. That's not to say they're poor defensively. Jacob Gilyard is one of the best two-way players in the country and is back up to 4 steals per game, which leads the nation. Richmond has only been ranked 11 weeks in school history, with two of them coming this year, including #19, their highest since the 1957-1958 season. If you're Richmond, you really want to cash in on this opportunity to make the tournament before your seniors leave. The Quad 4 home loss to Hofstra, however, really stings and isn't looking any better with time. Had they won, they could've easily been ranked going into conference play given how close they were that week. That would've really helped them and the whole conference.

St. Bonaventure

Overall Record: 6-1
A10 Record: 4-1
KenPom Rank: #59
NET Rank: #57
BPI Rank: #60
Joe Lunardi Bracketology (ESPN): 12 seed (auto bid)
Jerry Palm Bracketology (CBS): First four out
Team Rankings Bracketology: 30.8% bid, 11.4% auto bid, 19.4% at-large bid, projected 14-5

St. Bonaventure may be one of the most interesting teams to watch as the year progresses. With no bad losses, the sky is the limit for the Bonnies. Their only loss is a Quad 1 loss to URI on the road. Kyle Lofton, Jaren Holmes, and Osun Osunniyi have been great so far in conference play. If Lofton builds on his 28-point performance against Duquesne, he could easily find himself back on the All-Conference First Team despite not making the preseason listing. Also, Lofton, Holmes, and Osunniyi are all only juniors. The Bonnies should find themselves back in the top tier of the A10 once again next year.

VCU

Overall Record: 10-3
A10 Record: 3-1
KenPom Rank: #63
NET Rank: #47
BPI Rank: #74
Joe Lunardi Bracketology (ESPN): Next four out
Jerry Palm Bracketology (CBS): 12 seed (auto bid)
Team Rankings Bracketology: 36.3% bid, 10.6% auto bid, 25% at-large bid, projected 19-9
NBA Draft Prospects (ESPN): Nah'Shon "Bones" Hyland (Ranked #40)

As one of the younger teams in the A10, Mike Rhoades' VCU team appears way ahead of schedule. They were projected to finish 9th this year in the conference and now have a legitimate chance to make the tournament. With more recruits on the way, VCU could be dangerous in the coming years, especially if Bones Hyland stays. It's uncertain exactly how dangerous they'll be this year. They've only played one team so far that's in the top half of the A10, and it was a 15-point home loss to URI. That said, they beat Utah State by double digits in the Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic and that win continues to look more impressive with time. Their game at SBU Wednesday may be the game to watch for the conference this week.

Rhode Island

Overall Record: 7-7
A10 Record: 4-3
KenPom Rank: #64
NET Rank: #66
BPI Rank: #64
Team Rankings Bracketology: 21.4% bid, 10.1% auto bid, 11.3% at-large bid, projected 15-11

A .500 team with a small chance to receive an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament? Is this the Big 10?!? Welcome to the Atlantic 10 this year. Thanks to URI's brutal 29th ranked non-conference schedule the Rams are still in this despite their 7 losses. They can thank Fatt Russell's clutch free throw shooting against Saint Joe's for that. They're the only team in the conference to beat St. Bonaventure and VCU, and their only conference losses are at Richmond, at UMass in OT, and against Davidson in a game where Fatt's was clearly not 100%. With double-digit wins against Seton Hall and the Virginia-defeating San Francisco Dons, Rhode Island could certainly find their way near the fringes of the bubble if they continue to trend in the right direction.

Davidson

Overall Record: 8-5
A10 Record: 4-2
KenPom Rank: #65
NET Rank: #73
BPI Rank: #47
Team Rankings Bracketology: 10.5% bid, 9.9% auto bid, 0.6% at-large bid, projected 16-9

In Davidson's first six years in the A10, the team has either been at the top or the middle of the A10 pack. This year, they currently find themselves in some weird purgatory in between. For Davidson fans, this is "The Year of What Could've Been." Had either of rookie Sam Mennenga's game-winning 3-point attempts been good in their game against Texas in the first round of the Maui Invitational, things would look different... a lot different. They would've finished at least 4th in that tournament, Mennenga would have garnered national attention for scoring 20 points that day, and who knows how much momentum they would've had. Davidson's issues with clutch baskets seemed to disappear when Kellan Grady drained a deep 3 to send Davidson to OT against Dayton on #FridA10, but then Jalen Crutcher did what Jalen Crutcher does and they lost... by 11. That was their second Quad 3 loss of that margin at home. Erase those and they're knocking on the door of the bubble. Too bad you can't ignore losses!

Dayton

Overall Record: 8-3
A10 Record: 4-2
KenPom Rank: #74
NET Rank: #106
BPI Rank: #84
Team Rankings Bracketology: 8.4% bid, 4.9% auto bid, 3.5% at-large bid, projected 14-9

Dayton has a chance at an at-large bid?! Well, at least according to TR; they’d probably have to win out or get extremely close and do well in the A10 tournament. If you're Dayton, you're coming into this year with a chip on your shoulder. Last year you not only had a shot to win the A10 tournament, you had a shot to be national champions. In the A10 preseason poll, the Flyers weren't any lower than they were last year, so things looked somewhat promising. Unfortunately, this was also "The Year of What Could've Been" for Dayton. Unlike the completely-healthy Davidson, however, Dayton struggled with both bad games and bad player losses. They've been missing Rodney Chatman due to injury and that's not the only person they've been without. Due to this and Dayton's 15 overtime minutes this season, Jalen Crutcher averages 39.7 minutes a game and Ibi Watson averages 38.9. If you remove their Quad 4 losses to La Salle and Fordham, the team looks fantastic, with wins against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and at Davidson. As with Davidson, you can't just ignore losses, but you can do your best to make up for them. For Dayton fans, it's good to remember it's only January, and Dayton has plenty of opportunities to salvage a respectable season. Moreover, the team leads the conference in recruiting for next season by a healthy margin, and I would imagine those fans who tweeted nightmare scenarios about everyone decommitting are no longer worried after the Flyers just won three straight. Things are looking up!

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