Bonnies vs. Hofstra (Sat. 12/19/20 at 2:00 pm)
- Thread starter Bill Russell
- Start date
Hopefully this one gets out of control quickly and the bench can see good minutes. AJ and Winston were off yesterday but are too good to not figure it out. Winston must figure out the defense because he makes the offense better. I know Schmidt likes to get to 7 or 8 guys - if we're lucky - but in this season we have at least 5 guys that can come in and are solid D1 players and I'd hate to see 2 or 3 of them riding pine. With all the unknowns of a short season, potential corona, etc. we need 10 players that can just be plug and play.
Was just looking at Hofstra and see that Coburn is averaging 20 a game so far. He really blossomed, but took him awhile. Granted the opponents were not good and their only good game was at Rutgers and he had a poor night there. Not trying to creep on lil bona x's corner but it looks like they have 2 guards who can light it up and not much after. Kante is back for them but we saw what OO did to him last year.
This Hofstra team, like Akron, lost quite a bit from a great team. They lost Desure Buie and Eli Pemberton, however, they still have talent, probably more known contributors than the Zips
Bona03 said it best though. Jalen Ray and our good friend Tareq Coburn are easily the biggest offensive threats. They beat Monmouth 96-88 in Jersey yesterday. Ray had 29, Coburn 28. It was Hofstra's fifth game (3-2), but Monmouth's first. Ray and Lofton will face off at point guard like Lofton and LCJ just did, however it appears to me (especially looking at last year) that Ray isn't as good as LCJ. Coburn kind of plays the same 3/4 tweener role that Adaway had, which is still baffling to me because wasn't he a 2 here? Anyways, happy for him that he's been a key part of potentially the CAA champion, but I don't think he'd crack our starting 5.
Beyond Ray and Coburn, Hofstra is going much deeper this season. They played 6 or 7 deep last year and even those subs weren't playing much. It looks like they go 9 deep now, but the bench isn't exactly lighting it up. Isaac Kante might be their third best player, although he's not exactly a phenomenal offensive threat. He's a 6'7" center, so hopefully we see Shoon repeat Tuesday's performance. His backup Kevin Schutte is 6'9", and while that seems a little nicer for the Pride, Schutte has limited experience since role players at Hofstra don't see too much action.
Caleb Burgess starts at SG and has shown some glimpses looking at this season's stats, but he barely played last season behind Buie/Pemberton. I need to see a lot more from him to worry about Holmes/Vasquez on him, even Creal based on his limited minutes yesterday.
They opened with a 14-point loss at Rutgers, which on the surface doesn't seem bad since the Scarlet Knights are even better than last year. However, Geo Baker was out for this one, so you would have to think it should have been closer if Hofstra was top 100 quality. The cruised past FDU by 15 at home before losing to Slick Rick Pitino and Iona in Hempstead by 8. SG/SF Isaiah Ross for the Gaels went OFF for 33 points (10/17, 6/12 from 3), so there could be an opportunity for Welch or Holmes to pad the stat sheet if they have a mismatch on the wing. Hofstra also defeated not-SBU (aka Stony Brook) by 5, but the Seawolves aren't as good as a few years ago.
Overall, Hofstra is an average tempo team in the bottom third so far in three-point shooting. They thrive on getting steals and crashing the offensive glass, also a solid free throw shooting team. Still, even though I think Hofstra may have slightly more evenly spread talent in the starting five than Akron, the Zips had more depth, which allowed them to make the score a little closer than it was (and almost causing another bad beat in Cleveland in less than 24 hours!). KenPom has this as a 79-69 Bonnies win. I'd lay the 10 points and think we'll shoot better outside when we are back in the RC.
This is only peripherally relevant to this thread, but I don't want to start a new one. Now that the first A10 game has occurred, kenpom is publishing his proprietary rankings for the conference's player rankings. Yes, I know it seems beyond ridiculous to extrapolate from a single game's performance, but I expect great things from Shoon this year and I don't believe it's inappropriate that he comes in as #1 in the ranking. Of note is that Tre Mitchell is #2, and that kid is also seriously good. With Obi gone, it will be fun watching how these two duel this year. Also, the Billiken monster, Hasahn French, has manhandled Shoon in the past, so I really want to see our guy redeem himself in that matchup.
Also, recall how dependent we were on scoring a few years back from our big 3 of Adams, Mobley, and Stockard. They accounted for a little over 50 points per game and it was a sweet deal because when one was off the other two would pick up the slack. With Shoon, Welch, and Lofton kicking things off with a 60 point night, I am hoping we have the same ability to hit opponents with multiple weapons. There are plenty of other good candidates on the roster who can ruin an opponent's game plan on a given night as well. This is way too early to start having wet dreams, but it's nice to think about the possibilities.
BTW, the other top players in kenpom's rankings are (in order) Hyland, Golden, and Goodwin. The Golden-Shoon matchup will be another nice battle to watch.
Also, recall how dependent we were on scoring a few years back from our big 3 of Adams, Mobley, and Stockard. They accounted for a little over 50 points per game and it was a sweet deal because when one was off the other two would pick up the slack. With Shoon, Welch, and Lofton kicking things off with a 60 point night, I am hoping we have the same ability to hit opponents with multiple weapons. There are plenty of other good candidates on the roster who can ruin an opponent's game plan on a given night as well. This is way too early to start having wet dreams, but it's nice to think about the possibilities.
BTW, the other top players in kenpom's rankings are (in order) Hyland, Golden, and Goodwin. The Golden-Shoon matchup will be another nice battle to watch.
Adaway looked bigger then I expected for s 6'5" player. I think f Coburn stayed he could have been a starter his JR and SR season, Thst being said like you I'm happy for him an that it seems like things are working out for him at Hofstra. Also if he stays who knows what current player ends up going somewhere else.
Besides Coburn who transfered. Hofstra starts 2 players that Bonas recruited. Burgess and Kante. At the very least it should be interesting.
Thank god for Lofton....off game for Holmes....Adaway continues to impress...Shaw did a couple of good things but team really staggered with Osun out.
Again: Winston and AJ do nothing, beyond the latter's key 3-pojnter, and you have to cringe every time they touch the ball. They should be playing even less (if that is even possible for Schmidt to trust them less) which brings up: Roberts not in enough shape to play, say, 3 good minutes each half? All you'd need today. Team was awful when starting 5 not on floor. But we'll take the win.
Again: Winston and AJ do nothing, beyond the latter's key 3-pojnter, and you have to cringe every time they touch the ball. They should be playing even less (if that is even possible for Schmidt to trust them less) which brings up: Roberts not in enough shape to play, say, 3 good minutes each half? All you'd need today. Team was awful when starting 5 not on floor. But we'll take the win.
The player who surrprised me the most is Shaw. Between a breakaway steal - dunk and a passing game those arent skills you normally see from a juco big man.
Problem was, after his first minutes, team collapsed with Shaw in there--don't know if related but it was a bad look. Winston is hopeless so no other alternatives in relief at center or for two big bodies. But okay for now with Shaw.
Winston has struggled the first two games. He has to allow his shots to come via the flow of the offense. He hunts shots too much and too early in the shot clock. He also lacks intensity and focus on defense. He has talent but needs to show progress. He has the raw talent to do so.
I just wanted to add a graphic that I could actually decipher. It's me, not you.
I do like these but it's all in the interpretation. The obvious conclusion is Shoon being out was an issue. But he came back in and they lost the rest of the lead and further.. went down 5. We're too talented [apologies BR] for a stretch like that. Figure it out. University AT Buffalo is coming. Litmus test. They're good but not tournament caliber. No moral victories, this is one that needs to be in the books. Otherwise. "They are who we thought they were!"
Oh yeah, res, I like that. It's based on the data provided by Clausewitz in "The Campaign of 1812 in Russia." Napoleon had 301,000 troops at the beginning of the campaign, 90,000 when he entered Moscow, and was down to 13,000 by the time the remnants collected behind the Vistula. Irrelevant posts of graphs with interesting data are always a welcome exception to thread discipline.
As to the Bonnies results in our first two games, we seem to be pegged about right with the consensus mid-70s national power ranking. That would indicate another nail-biting season of calculating the different mathematical paths to getting a double bye. Good, but not substantially better than the norm in recent years, and not as good as many expected. I'm still hoping for more. Our big 3 have performed in line with last year, but I'm hoping everyone will be looking better with a bit more playing time. Anthony Roberts should be a nice added boost, whenever we get him on the floor.
So I see some have picked Winston as their player to rip this year. There is always one. The kid is good, he needs to improve in some areas mentioned but hes a Soph and will be a difference maker.
BI, who is Univeristy at Buffalo? My scheudule says the Bonnies play SUNY Amherst next.
It was nice to see Lofton get a few breathers. It is important to keep him fresh. Also, Shoon is the MVP of this team. When he is out we really struggle on defense. His ability to stay on the floor will always correlate with our ability to win.
BI, who is Univeristy at Buffalo? My scheudule says the Bonnies play SUNY Amherst next.
It was nice to see Lofton get a few breathers. It is important to keep him fresh. Also, Shoon is the MVP of this team. When he is out we really struggle on defense. His ability to stay on the floor will always correlate with our ability to win.
Winston has looked terrible. He’s a net negative on defense and on offense he tries to do too much. He’s catching the ball and immediately trying to score — even if he’s beyond the arc. Is he the new ayeni? No. But the criticism isn’t without evidence.
Hopefully he silences the critics (including me) soon. But he’s playing himself onto the end bench right now.