Bonnies vs. GW (Fri. 2/26/21 at 6:00 pm)
- Thread starter brownindians85
- Start date
Unfurled and Bona X talked about Shoon exploding vs GW and that is what I expect tonight. We havent needed him as much this year but this is a game he can and will dominate.
I think you guys are misinterpreting NET, which is understandable given the NCAA is opaque in its explanation of how its calculated. The rankings seem to react as if its strongly weighted toward efficiency. It doesn't move in lockstep with kenpom, but the movements are similar. That's ok with me. How the Q1, Q2, etc. bullshit factors in beats the hell out of me.
As to Colgate, keep in mind that the PL did not have an OOC season with the exception of the academies. Colgate has played 12 games and those games were against three teams; Army, Boston University, and Holy Cross. That's it, that's the list. Army has played a handful of nonconference games, BU and HC have played none.
We have no idea how the NCAA comes up with its initial rankings. Remember, Pomeroy makes a rough attempt to do so while also arguing that they make little difference once we get well into the nonconference season. All the cancellations make this year different. Colgate simply hasn't played enough teams who also haven't played enough teams to give any statistically reliable estimate as to its overall strength. If its initial NET was set too high, there's simply not enough information for that rating to adjust as long as Colgate continues to beat its three opponents by the "expected" margins, which it has mostly done. In a typical year this wouldn't be an issue.
Last edited:
Not really, I've just seen a lot of references to Colgate's NET on a number of sites and it got me to thinking why they would be ranked where they are. They're currently #91 in kenpom, which is more reasonable. I was going to post this here or somewhere else and your post jogged my memory.
I have been in the default mode of assuming an NCAA metric is going to favor the "power conference" teams, and haven't paid much attention to NET, or its details (as much as they can be known), as a result. I have to say now, though, that maybe it's superior to RPI in the sense that yesterday's game would have (most likely) hurt the Bonnies RPI rating just because they played a team with a crappy record. But, if NET actually rewards you for beating a crappy team as bad, or worse, than they deserve to beaten, then I guess I'm a believer.