Bonnies vs. Griffs (Sun. 11/14/21 at 5:00)

Bill Russell

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Depressing day/time for a rivalry (or any) gueyem.

As always, BEWARE CANISIUS. They almost always bring it against us. Against Miami, the Griffs stuck around and banged heads. They have some size, so limit second chances.
 

res

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I'm OK with Sunday at 5. I mean, I've got nothing else to watch in that timeslot until NASCAR comes back in February.
 

Bona03

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I understand they wanted to avoid the Bills game but why couldnt they schedule this on Saturday?
 

Bona03

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Thank God that is over. There was nothing enjoyable about last night. Afterward I couldnt even enjoy that we won because it never should have been like that. This pattern of slow starts and waiting until the 2nd half to turn it on will not fly when we play non MAAC teams. Maybe it was the Sunday evening start time or they didnt take Canisius seriously but we need to see better. On the flip side, 2-0 is 2-0 and the W is all that matters.
 

Community Bank 3Pt Tee

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The slow starts has been a Schmidt trait, and this group seems to have suffered from it more than most. Plenty of comebacks and ugly losses over their time can be traced directly to a snail paced start. What's weirder, is we coax other teams into this so often. The number of games in which the score is like 6-5 6+ minutes into the game is kind of wild. I've tried to figure out what it is over the years. I've got nothing.

Sluggish, sloppy play for most of the first 32 minutes + the absence of Shoon are compounding factors which change the course of a game, and make it hard to glean anything useful from it.

I'm sure we all have a lot of the same concerns. Some are reactionary, attributed to the above or both. Some will self-correct by the law of averages. Some are probably legitimate. This weekend will be telling about which bucket the concerns fit into.
 

3rdShayCripSet

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Thank God that is over. There was nothing enjoyable about last night. Afterward I couldnt even enjoy that we won because it never should have been like that. This pattern of slow starts and waiting until the 2nd half to turn it on will not fly when we play non MAAC teams. Maybe it was the Sunday evening start time or they didnt take Canisius seriously but we need to see better. On the flip side, 2-0 is 2-0 and the W is all that matters.
We are lucky we did not drop that game.

Maybe it's a bit of an overstatement, but if we lose last night, our at large hopes take a big hit. Rarely, if ever, do teams get at larges with a Q4 loss (Net 161+). Not sure how NU was in 18, but we won 25 games and were sent to Dayton. That's with the committee taking into account Adams was hurt.

Add in the fact that due to the A10 likely being down this year, we will probably pick up one or two Q3 losses. Not because we aren't good, but because it's hard to go undefeated on the road and at home.

Nonetheless, people need to stop looking at this team like it's 2018. We will rarely score more than 80 points in a game. Our wins will not be by 40 points. Defense is what will keep us in most games this year. If we played a complete game against Siena, they don't score 40 points. If we one good half against Canisius, they don't score 50.
 

Citizen X

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I was just as disappointed as everyone else appears to be for the first 32 minutes. There are some issues to be addressed and everyone is now aware of them. However, that really was a great game for an unbiased person to watch. I have to keep reminding myself that there is a distribution of probable outcomes in any prediction. Winning by 9 when favored by 21 isn't so far away from the central tendency of those outcomes that it should change our expectations. Missing so many shots from beyond the arc and giving up that many offensive rebounds is bad, but my bet is we won't see much more of that dogshit.
 

res

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Offensive rebounds can be a misleading stat, X. You know the first thing you need to do to gather an offensive rebound? You need to miss a shot. Canisius missed a ton of shots, in large part because of Bona's defense. So that's a good thing. And 20+ of those misses originated from beyond the arc, which are less likely to stay near the cylinder after clanking. The ratio on Bona defensive rebounds to Canisius offensive ones was roughly 2, perhaps a little lower than you'd like to see, but nothing of any great concern.
 

Bill Russell

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Offensive rebounds can be a misleading stat, X. You know the first thing you need to do to gather an offensive rebound? You need to miss a shot. Canisius missed a ton of shots, in large part because of Bona's defense. So that's a good thing. And 20+ of those misses originated from beyond the arc, which are less likely to stay near the cylinder after clanking. The ratio on Bona defensive rebounds to Canisius offensive ones was roughly 2, perhaps a little lower than you'd like to see, but nothing of any great concern.
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res

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Yeah, but I'm not an advanced stats guy. I mean, I believe in them but I don't pretend to understand them.
 

Citizen X

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Yep, and sometimes the ball just fortuitously bounces the wrong way and the other guy gets it, so you can't get them all. The danger is that the guy who positions himself properly and gets it is getting another possession. In the end, the Bonnies got 38x2 point attempts and 15x3 point attempts. Canisius shot 38x2 pointers and 28x3 pointers. You put your team at a disadvantage when the other guys get 66 shots to your 53.
Res makes a good point about the 3-point attempts bouncing farther out, however. We had better consider what that means for our future because Bona is the 6th best team in defensive blocking and the 18th ranked team in 2-point defense. No opponent wants to get too close to the cylinder against us, so we are going to see a lot of 3-pointers from our opponents. Fortunately, Boise State has an even lower 3 point % than Bona.
I don't fully understand this stat either, res, which is why I believe that some nights enough random shit goes bad that a good team can lose even when the stats say they have a 97% probability of winning.
 
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