Bonnies vs. Billikens

Citizen X said:
I don't really know much about how the Elo system calculations work, but just from casual reference to it the last few years it has seemed to be pretty accurate. You can see the rankings on Warren Nolan's site:

ELO Chess Ranking - 2022 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2022 Men's College Basketball ELO Chess Ranking: a ranking of teams by their ELO Chess Score which increases or decreases based the outcome of the game and opponents skill level (ELO ranking).
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

The Bonnies are #46 but, it doesn't matter if the committee doesn't use it.
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FWIW we are 69 on Sagarin, which I believe is used. Furthermore, we're 52 on his recency rating which takes the last 5. Now, I don't think the committee gets the details of Sagarin (or any)- but considering the recency rating would have to necessarily include the 2 shitburger games of Davidson and Richmond- it surely means it's bolstered nicely by our last 3. If our next 2 are anywhere near the type of performance we've seen in the last 3, then come Sunday morning our recency- and in turn, total Sagarin rating- should be poised for a climb.

Not to get ahead of ourselves. Just keep playing with the rediscovered swag and Winn, damnit.
 
Community Bank 3Pt Tee said:
FWIW we are 69 on Sagarin, which I believe is used. Furthermore, we're 52 on his recency rating which takes the last 5. Now, I don't think the committee gets the details of Sagarin (or any)- but considering the recency rating would have to necessarily include the 2 shitburger games of Davidson and Richmond- it surely means it's bolstered nicely by our last 3. If our next 2 are anywhere near the type of performance we've seen in the last 3, then come Sunday morning our recency- and in turn, total Sagarin rating- should be poised for a climb.

Not to get ahead of ourselves. Just keep playing with the rediscovered swag and Winn, damnit.
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We need to keep our blinders on, collectively. Next game up. Legggggo...
 
Community Bank 3Pt Tee said:
It's 2018 all over again. We definitely need to win out and sneak up onto people's radar in the process. Looking back to the same point we're at now in the 2018 season, 7-4 in conference- our losses to that point were worse although we had one less overall (Q1 x3, Q3 x2, Q4), and overall conference SOS was far worse throughout that year. Our one remaining Q1 opp was certainly more marquee- but it was just 1 remaining opp nonetheless. Do we miss the tournament that year with a different bubble? Who knows.

In either case, 3rd is right. I dont see how we afford another loss. When it comes to the conf tourneys, there's really no rhyme or reason- the committee says they dont use it, but then, they'll list performance in conf tourneys as reasons for inclusion or exclusion. There may be no magical formula of 'needs to reach conf finals', but losing Friday ain't gonna help.

GMU really hurts right now. That's one of those games that, had we won, would have been like a bonus Q2 because it doesn't really feel like a Q2 (like Duquense on the road last year being a Q2). Instead it's a missed opportunity. 12/22 games so far being in Q1/2 is what we wanted, we just didn't capitalize at a high enough to feel comfortable.
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I didnt realize how much this season was mirroring 2018 until you pointed it out. The major difference to me is I never felt 2018 was dead. This year felt dead 9 days ago. This team has the same opportunity, win games and somewhat control your destiny.
 
TL;DR; My gut feeling is there is a 0% chance of NCAA without an A10 title.

In retrospect, 2018 was dead, until the run. And even then, missing the conference finals put us in the FF.

In 2018, the bad loss was home to Niagara, who went on to have a 19-14 season. The 2-4 start to conference play was 4 road losses. The only other OOC loss was TCU, who got a 6 seed that season, and the conference tourney loss to DC, who went on to win the title and was therefore another loss to a tournament team. They were 25-7 on selection Sunday with only 3 losses to teams not in the field, and wins over SU, Buffalo, URI, DC in the field.

This season we already have 4 losses to teams not in the field, UNI, Dayton, Richmond, GMU. That could change if one wins a tourney title. Virginia Tech and UConn will probably be in but those are losses. We are quite possibly sitting on just 1 win over a team in the field, Marquette. I'd like Boise to prove that wrong. There are no more in-the-field games so all are must win games. Depending on the A10 draw, it remains to be seen if any of those games would move the needle. Even if we get GW rescheduled and got a top 4 and made the conference final at 24-7, that final is almost sure to be against a bid stealer and none of the wins during a potential 2022 "run" are marquee. I think you have to win the title.
 
brownindians85 said:
TL;DR; My gut feeling is there is a 0% chance of NCAA without an A10 title.

In retrospect, 2018 was dead, until the run. And even then, missing the conference finals put us in the FF.

In 2018, the bad loss was home to Niagara, who went on to have a 19-14 season. The 2-4 start to conference play was 4 road losses. The only other OOC loss was TCU, who got a 6 seed that season, and the conference tourney loss to DC, who went on to win the title and was therefore another loss to a tournament team. They were 25-7 on selection Sunday with only 3 losses to teams not in the field, and wins over SU, Buffalo, URI, DC in the field.

This season we already have 4 losses to teams not in the field, UNI, Dayton, Richmond, GMU. That could change if one wins a tourney title. Virginia Tech and UConn will probably be in but those are losses. We are quite possibly sitting on just 1 win over a team in the field, Marquette. I'd like Boise to prove that wrong. There are no more in-the-field games so all are must win games. Depending on the A10 draw, it remains to be seen if any of those games would move the needle. Even if we get GW rescheduled and got a top 4 and made the conference final at 24-7, that final is almost sure to be against a bid stealer and none of the wins during a potential 2022 "run" are marquee. I think you have to win the title.
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You could be right, its very fluid.

I do need to point out a few counters though. You are only focusing on us. Other teams out there have the same issues and similar resumes. UNC has 0 wins over a team in the field. 0. BYU has 2. Boise St is 100% a NCAAT team at the moment. The reason we were in the FF in 2018 was because of bid stealers. We were solidly in the last 4 byes prior to that. It happens. At this point they really just need to win games and play well. The rest will sort out.
 
A10 is uniquely bubbly this year. VCU, SLU, Dayton and us are all slotted in Lunardi's latest list of the 7 teams beyond the next 4 out. Davidson is seeded at 12 suggesting they're right there around the cut line. There's 4 games amongst those 5 to be played. Richmond, capable of beating any of them, plays each but Davidson.

There's a lot of possibilities in there ranging from 1 or 2 emerging from the pack, to full-on 1 bid implosion. Treat every game as a must win to ensure the best seed possible and worry about us.
 
brownindians85 said:
TL;DR; My gut feeling is there is a 0% chance of NCAA without an A10 title.

In retrospect, 2018 was dead, until the run. And even then, missing the conference finals put us in the FF.

In 2018, the bad loss was home to Niagara, who went on to have a 19-14 season. The 2-4 start to conference play was 4 road losses. The only other OOC loss was TCU, who got a 6 seed that season, and the conference tourney loss to DC, who went on to win the title and was therefore another loss to a tournament team. They were 25-7 on selection Sunday with only 3 losses to teams not in the field, and wins over SU, Buffalo, URI, DC in the field.

This season we already have 4 losses to teams not in the field, UNI, Dayton, Richmond, GMU. That could change if one wins a tourney title. Virginia Tech and UConn will probably be in but those are losses. We are quite possibly sitting on just 1 win over a team in the field, Marquette. I'd like Boise to prove that wrong. There are no more in-the-field games so all are must win games. Depending on the A10 draw, it remains to be seen if any of those games would move the needle. Even if we get GW rescheduled and got a top 4 and made the conference final at 24-7, that final is almost sure to be against a bid stealer and none of the wins during a potential 2022 "run" are marquee. I think you have to win the title.
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The bubble, like most years, is incredibly thin. The ONLY metric that's holding us back right now is the NET. I am not sure losses to teams "not in the field" is a metric, but it could be some type of measuring stick. Still, all of our losses are nearly top 100.

Look at the teams being considered right now, and tell me where they are better than us:

WEST VIRGINIA - NET 68 - (2-10 vs. Q1) (4-1 vs. Q2) No Q3/4 losses
OREGON - NET 58 - (2-3 vs. Q1) (4-2 vs. Q2) 3 Q3 losses
FLORIDA - NET 54 - (1-7 vs. Q1) (3-2 vs. Q2) 1 Q4 loss
CREIGHTON - NET 69 (3-5 vs. Q1) (1-2 vs. Q2) 1 Q3 loss

If we win, the NET will sort itself out. We also need Buffalo, UNI plus the rest of our Q1/Q2s win and stay where they're at in the rankings.

Fox Sports has us at next four out right now, so it looks like we are creeping back in the picutre.
 
To expand on 3Shay's post...Lunardi has us 11th out. I guessed after monday we would be about 10th and that seems right. Since then Florida lost again. Oklahoma is cratering under their loss count. Oregon is out or barely in.

SUNY Amherst and UNI keep getting closer to top 100, which is going to be Q2 no matter what but tome there is something about not having any losses outside of the top 100.
 
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