Bonnies vs. Billikens

C

Citizen X

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According to Ken Pomeroy's view of the world, SLU is the 47th best team in Division I, the highest rating he gives any of the A10 teams, and an 8-point favorite to our now humbled Bonnies. We are, however, as inconsistent as Saint Louis weather. I was told when I moved there many ages ago that if I didn't like the weather I should wait half an hour and it would change. Our Bonnies were also inconsistent against the Billikens last year. We faced a strong SLU team on 6 Feb 21 and lost by eleven, but turned that around in the A10 tourney to blow them away by 18. Kenpom ranked SLU #53 by the end of last season, but had them as high as #26 early in the season. All of which goes to show once again that putting too much faith in rankings indicates an intellectual limitation of some type. All we know is that when our guys are clicking they are very good, so let's hope they are clicking tonight.
 
Continuing to offer up my hot, tight, creamy, rich, hearty, robust asshole (see avatar) to be violated in the hope that this will assure the team and Schmidt a win against the Billikens.

Pissah!

Aloha!
 
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X, you're a statistician, so I know you know better. Dropping from 26th from early in the season, when the rating is acknowledged as unreliable, to 53rd, is equivalent to one mid-range jumper.

If you're really looking to find intellectual limitations, I suggest you look to the eye test crew.
 
res said:
X, you're a statistician, so I know you know better. Dropping from 26th from early in the season, when the rating is acknowledged as unreliable, to 53rd, is equivalent to one mid-range jumper.

If you're really looking to find intellectual limitations, I suggest you look to the eye test crew.
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Well, I was trying to make the point that they were considered a good team all year, but I'm glad you're watching. It turned out to be a fun game and an exceptionally good illustration of how power ratings are only approximate, so it will be fun to watch the Bonnies rise in the limited importance of Kenpom rankings.
 
That was the mother fucking Bonnies team we loved early in the season
 
Bona03 said:
That was the mother fucking Bonnies team we loved early in the season.
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Offering up my hot, tight, creamy, rich, hearty, robust asshole (see avatar) to be violated has obviously worked wonders for team morale. My offer stands until the end of the season.

Pissah!

Aloha!
 
I'm still trying to piece together how the last two games really sit with me. To get two wins in 4 days against a quality team, is good. I'd also say there are things we could have done better to have kept both games from being as close as they were. I suppose that's a good problem to have.

There definitely appears to be some sort of swagger and grit back to their play. I won't pretend to know if it'll last, and especially why it was missing, but I hope it keeps up.
 
It appears they have found what made them successful last year and early this year so I think it is sustainable since we have seen it before. They look like the team we knew and loved and like you said, they have their swagger. Why that was missing for so long is a mystery but they saw the writing on the wall and found what they lost. Welch has had the biggest turnaround, He is flying around on defense again. Holmes is hitting his mid range floaters (still not finishing at the rim at all) and they are running the offense that made the successful. The dream is still alive.
 
We are now running into a scenario where we not only need to win our next four games, but do so in convincing fashion.

It's tough to think this way, but if we had won by 10+ last night, we likely would have been a 2-4 spots higher in the NET.

Kind of stinks that our UNI, VT and Dayton losses basically counted twice. Had we lost to UNI by a bucket, VT by 15 and Dayton by 9, we likely would be top 70 in the NET.

We are still in a decent position if we take care of business. UMass and Duquesne should be wins, but URI will test us.
 
No mystery here! Offering up my hot, tight, creamy, rich, hearty, robust asshole (see avatar) to be violated has been the key to turning team performance around. The swagger is the team knowing that my hot, tight, creamy, rich, hearty, robust asshole (see avatar) is readily available to be violated. Akin to a super performance enhancing drug but having all natural ingredients.

Pissah!

Aloha!
 
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3rdShayCripSet said:
We are now running into a scenario where we not only need to win our next four games, but do so in convincing fashion.

It's tough to think this way, but if we had won by 10+ last night, we likely would have been a 2-4 spots higher in the NET.

Kind of stinks that our UNI, VT and Dayton losses basically counted twice. Had we lost to UNI by a bucket, VT by 15 and Dayton by 9, we likely would be top 70 in the NET.

We are still in a decent position if we take care of business. UMass and Duquesne should be wins, but URI will test us.
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Yea, beating the snot out of the next 4 teams will be necessary but winning is still the primary thing here. I cant figure out the NET at all lately other than its a reflection of KenPom. Compare A10 teams Net vs KP and they are all within 10 spots. WTF do we need NET for then? I posted this in the A10 forum but will here too. Its a good article breaking down how the committee has been using the data they have.

heatcheckcbb.com

Bracketology: Analyzing impact of metrics in NCAA Tournament selection, seeding — Heat Check CBB

Bracketology season is on the horizon. Which metrics warrant major attention and how does the committee evaluate the different types?
heatcheckcbb.com heatcheckcbb.com

What I found very interesting is the closer you are to the bubble, the more they look at SOR and KPI (resume based metrics) while they seem to use KenPom type metrics for seeding the field. This would bode well for us since we have decent resume metrics compared to KP. At this point I just want to get in the door.

Despite our NET ranking, we have a decent team sheet:1644941936737.png
Winning game alone will move those KPI and SOR numbers up. My amateur/slightly know what I am talking about opinion is we are about 10 spots outside of the cut line right now. We will be favored in every remaining game except for VCU, which is a great matchup for us. Roll into A10's on a good note and the opportunity will be there for an at large. A lot can happen in the next month but the path is there.

The bottom line is the NET is a tool they use to sort/rank teams but is not the be all end all for selecting the field.
 
Our 3-point defense needs improvement, but I was surprised to see that our 2-point field goal defense is even worse. I would not have thought it was, but now that I see it, it brings to mind a lot of missed assignments. Defense is the difference between last year and now. I do like most of what we've seen lately, however. I think the effect of the Lofton injury, covid pause, and absence of Brown are all significant. I wonder if Dom is going to be 100%; he started limping toward the end of the game. His injury was devastating when we lost to LSU in the tourney last year.
We do still have a path to an at-large, in my humble opinion, but it requires a rather tortuous set of assumptions.
 
Agreed, 03.

The NET is not the BE ALL END ALL that many of us think, but it is still important. Many schools ahead of us like North Texas, Belmont, Chattanooga and UAB won't make the tourney unless they win their conference tourney.

While we are 6-6 in Q1/2 games, we in all honesty need some help because some of those games are close to falling off their current mark

Q1- Boise is 11 spots from falling to a Q2
- SLU is 14 spots from falling to a Q2
- Marquette is pretty safe at the moment. 19 spots from a Q2

Q2 - VCU is only nine spots from falling to a Q3
- Clemson is 10 spots from falling to a Q3
- SLU at home is 14 spots from falling to a Q3

I really think we need to win out by any margin to get an at large PLUS a trip to the A10 finals.

Right now, this is how our schedule shakes out:
-UMass is a firm Q4,
-Duquesne is an even deeper Q4,
-Rhode Island is a firm q3 and dangerous one at that
-@Joes is a Q3
-@ VCU is a Q1 and Q2 at the absolute worst
-Richmond is a Q3

Our biggest competition right now for an at large would be the teams below:

Oregon - 59 NET, 2-3 vs. q1, 4-2 vs. q2, 3 Q3 losses.
Florida 49 NET- 1-6 vs. q1, 3-2 vs. q3, one q4 loss.
SMU 45 NET - 2-2 vs. q1, 2-1 v q2, 1 q3 loss and 1 q4 loss.
BYU 54 NET - 3-3 vs. q1, 4-4 vs. q2, 1 q4 loss.
Creighton 70 NET - 3-5 vs. q1, 1-2 vs. q2, 1 q3 loss.
SDSU - 48 NET - 2-5 vs. q1, 1-1 vs. q2, no q3/4 losses.
Michigan - 36 NET - 2-6 vs. q1, 3-3 vs. q2, 1 q3 loss.
UNC - 38 NET - 0-7 vs. q1, 4-0 vs. q2, no q3/4 losses.
Memphis- 44 NET, 4-2 vs. q1, 1-4 vs. q2, 2 q3 losses.

So basically we have one game the rest of the regular season to enhance our resume. The A10s don't get much better as we would likely have only Q2 games at best or q3 games if an underdog wins an early quarterfinal matchup.

I honestly don't see how we can afford another regular season loss. We can't drop a Q1 game for resume purposes, but can't add another Q3 or Q4 loss to the resume. Maybe you could drop URI if Northern Iowa goes on a tear, but still would be a tough loss to take.

I know we are still four weeks away from Selection Sunday, but things are pretty clear on our end what we need to do to get back on the right side of the bubble.
 
3rdShayCripSet said:
I honestly don't see how we can afford another regular season loss. We can't drop a Q1 game for resume purposes, but can't add another Q3 or Q4 loss to the resume. Maybe you could drop URI if Northern Iowa goes on a tear, but still would be a tough loss to take.

I know we are still four weeks away from Selection Sunday, but things are pretty clear on our end what we need to do to get back on the right side of the bubble.
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Yea, we dont have any room for a loss except mayyyyybe VCU. All those teams you listed above are also going to play games and will lose some too. They are on the bubble for a reason. Not to mention any bid stealers out there...

Just Winn.
 
It's 2018 all over again. We definitely need to win out and sneak up onto people's radar in the process. Looking back to the same point we're at now in the 2018 season, 7-4 in conference- our losses to that point were worse although we had one less overall (Q1 x3, Q3 x2, Q4), and overall conference SOS was far worse throughout that year. Our one remaining Q1 opp was certainly more marquee- but it was just 1 remaining opp nonetheless. Do we miss the tournament that year with a different bubble? Who knows.

In either case, 3rd is right. I dont see how we afford another loss. When it comes to the conf tourneys, there's really no rhyme or reason- the committee says they dont use it, but then, they'll list performance in conf tourneys as reasons for inclusion or exclusion. There may be no magical formula of 'needs to reach conf finals', but losing Friday ain't gonna help.

GMU really hurts right now. That's one of those games that, had we won, would have been like a bonus Q2 because it doesn't really feel like a Q2 (like Duquense on the road last year being a Q2). Instead it's a missed opportunity. 12/22 games so far being in Q1/2 is what we wanted, we just didn't capitalize at a high enough to feel comfortable.
 
I don't really know much about how the Elo system calculations work, but just from casual reference to it the last few years it has seemed to be pretty accurate. You can see the rankings on Warren Nolan's site:

ELO Chess Ranking - 2022 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2022 Men's College Basketball ELO Chess Ranking: a ranking of teams by their ELO Chess Score which increases or decreases based the outcome of the game and opponents skill level (ELO ranking).
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

The Bonnies are #46 but, it doesn't matter if the committee doesn't use it.
 
Bona03 said:
Yea, we dont have any room for a loss except mayyyyybe VCU. All those teams you listed above are also going to play games and will lose some too. They are on the bubble for a reason. Not to mention any bid stealers out there...

Just Winn.
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Only reason why I might disagree is that we need all the Q1 wins we can get. There's a chance we lose one or even two of those within the next month, so the more the better.

On the other hand, I am not sure which game you could point to and say, no worries here. UMass and Duquesne are must wins. Saint Joe's is pretty close to that, so it would have to be either Rhody or Richmond.

Richmond should end up being a top 100 game, but you can't get swept by a team that isn't even in the NIT picture. That would be a tough sell to the committee.

Rhody, while 4-8, could end up being ranked higher than UNI when it's all said and done, so maybe that would be the one I choose.

Any way you cut it. Whether it's winning out to finish the regular season, or losing to URI/VCU, anything less than a trip to the Title game likely does us in unless we get a lot of help on the bubble.
 
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