A10 Bracketology: Where We Stand Now

cpyle

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It is about a month away from Selection Sunday.  The A10 has had a strong year this season with many teams improving greatly from last season’s disaster.  Right now, the A10 is firmly standing at 2 teams in the projected tournament field.  The conference also has 2 teams firmly on the bubble fence, rotating in and out on various bracketologist’s projections.  One team could have a chance to sneak onto the bubble.  The rest of the A10 teams need to win the whole thing in Brooklyn in March.  Let’s take a look at those teams.
 
Safely in the Field
Dayton
The Flyers are obviously in the field of 68 and are a high seed.  Dayton keeps climbing the AP rankings week after week, and they leave no doubt who the kings of the A10 are this season.  It would take a disaster times one thousand for the Flyers to blow their chance to get into the dance, as they are a projected 2 seed in Joe Lunardi’s bracket and Jerry Palm’s bracket.  They are also a 2 seed on Bracket Matrix.  At this point in the...

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I think SLU should be in the "work to do" section. NET of 74, will have around 22/23 wins, and Still have VCU and @Rhode island to help make resume better. While I do not predict a SLU win at Rhode Island, but if they win there, and finish strong they should have a Resume thats on the bubble.
 
I didn't really think about it, but I guess Duquesne would maaaaaybe have a chance if they won out. Did not realize how difficult their remaining schedule is - @ Dayton, St. Bonaventure, and VCU, and then home for Richmond. I don't see any universe where the Dukes run the table, but if they did that would be 2 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins most likely.

I feel like Saint Louis has a better chance, but even then they only have 2 Q1/Q2 wins, and only 2 more chances for good wins.
 
Agreed with the points about Saint Louis... just not enough good wins. Wish the Billikens had snagged one against Seton Hall or Auburn (those were 2 ENORMOUS non-con opportunities). We'd be having a different conversation right now.
 
So much for Duquesne and Saint Louis having any shot lol. With them and VCU all losing this week we're down to three teams with a chance of an at large. I think Richmond will be in decent shape if they finish 4-1 though, and Rhody should be fine as long as they don't take a bad loss.
 
Bona fans are really familiar with Richmond's position and can tell you they are soundly on the bubble. If they lose one more in the regular season they will need to play on Saturday in Brooklyn at a minimum and hope that Saturday game is against one of the other double bye teams and not a hot GW or something. This is regardless of whatever anyone else on the bubble does.

The way Richmond has played the last few games they shouldn't have a problem finishing the regular season 4-1 or better but I said the same type of thing in 2016 about the Bonnies and a bad LaSalle team caught fire one night so you never know.
 
So much for Duquesne and Saint Louis having any shot lol. With them and VCU all losing this week we're down to three teams with a chance of an at large. I think Richmond will be in decent shape if they finish 4-1 though, and Rhody should be fine as long as they don't take a bad loss.

Lunardi with Richmond in the field today. Agreed with no bad losses being really the only criteria. Rhode Island snuck its way off the bubble by doing just that: bubble teams will lose, and if you can avoid doing so, you'll be fine.
 
Bona fans are really familiar with Richmond's position and can tell you they are soundly on the bubble. If they lose one more in the regular season they will need to play on Saturday in Brooklyn at a minimum and hope that Saturday game is against one of the other double bye teams and not a hot GW or something. This is regardless of whatever anyone else on the bubble does.

The way Richmond has played the last few games they shouldn't have a problem finishing the regular season 4-1 or better but I said the same type of thing in 2016 about the Bonnies and a bad LaSalle team caught fire one night so you never know.

The other thing with the bubble is that the margin of error gets SO much thinner with bid stealers in the A-10 Tournament. You could feel safe now, but spots begin to vanish once teams like Northern Iowa and East Tennessee St. lose conference tournament games. I'd feel safe about UR if they managed only 1 loss between now and the end of the season and at least got to the A-10 semifinals.
 
I think the most important game for the A-10 the rest of the regular season in terms of bid count will be Richmond @ GW. I think that's the one "bad loss" Richmond might get since GW has gradually been getting stronger throughout the year and are healthy now.

The last game @ Duquesne is obviously the hardest game on paper, but Richmond could lose that and still get a bid with a solid A-10 tournament showing. With that said, all 5 of Richmond's remaining games are dangerous and could trip them up, but I'm eyeing that GW game...
 
So what do we think about Richmond now? If the Spiders win out I think they should be pretty safe, but a loss could really hurt.

If I had to guess:
Finish 4-0 - In no matter what
Loss to GW or UMass - Need trip to A10 finals and maybe some help
Loss to Davidson or Duquesne - Need at least 1 win in Brooklyn, maybe 2
Finish regular season 2-2 or worse - Need to win A10 tournament
 
Something I've been thinking about - VCU is quietly killing Rhode Island's resume. @ VCU is Rhody's only Q1 win, and that doesn't look nearly as good as it did at the time. Still think Rhode Island is in pretty good shape, but their margin for error might not be as big as we think.
 
Something I've been thinking about - VCU is quietly killing Rhode Island's resume. @ VCU is Rhody's only Q1 win, and that doesn't look nearly as good as it did at the time. Still think Rhode Island is in pretty good shape, but their margin for error might not be as big as we think.

While not highly likely, SLU still has RI at least once, possibly twice depending on the A10 tournament. If SLU wins out the rest of the schedule, and gets a chance at them again, they could be back in the hunt.
 
Something I've been thinking about - VCU is quietly killing Rhode Island's resume. @ VCU is Rhody's only Q1 win, and that doesn't look nearly as good as it did at the time. Still think Rhode Island is in pretty good shape, but their margin for error might not be as big as we think.
I've seen a couple of brackets where they have Richmond ahead of URI or both of them in the last 4/first 4. URI really needs to beat SLU or Dayton and escape any bad losses. Davidson wasn't a bad loss but the Rhode resume doesn't have much meat on a deeper dive.
 
While not highly likely, SLU still has RI at least once, possibly twice depending on the A10 tournament. If SLU wins out the rest of the schedule, and gets a chance at them again, they could be back in the hunt.

I think SLU is done unfortunately. If they win out, they would be 12-6 in conference. The only 12-6 team in the 18-game schedule era to get an at large was 2014-15 VCU, who went 10-3 against the 12th best non-conference schedule in the country. SLU's best win out of conference was Kansas State, who is currently 2-13 in the Big 12.
 
I think SLU is done unfortunately. If they win out, they would be 12-6 in conference. The only 12-6 team in the 18-game schedule era to get an at large was 2014-15 VCU, who went 10-3 against the 12th best non-conference schedule in the country. SLU's best win out of conference was Kansas State, who is currently 2-13 in the Big 12.

If what I said were to happen, that would be two more Q1 wins which I think speaks louder than the kstate being the best ooc win. We would still be outside for sure, but we would likely have a NET thats probably top 50. Also 24 wins.. Just to be clear, im not saying if we do that we're in, I think we'd be in the discussion.
 
UCLA has come out of nowhere and could be a surprise bid thief. No necessarily a true bid thief but they weren't even on bubble watch 10 days ago and now they are first 4 out. Some years the bubble softens at this point when teams drop games they shouldn't or don't capitalize on their chances. This year you have Providence, UCLA, NC State all making the most of their chances. Meaning the URI's and Richmond's of the world have even less margin for error.
 
I don't understand how NC State is in the discussion. They're 8-9 in a BAD ACC, 57th in the NET, and have 3 bad losses. Their non-conference was pretty good, but even then, Wisconsin and UNC Greensboro are just borderline Q1 wins.
 
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