3+ Bid League Thread

GrantLabedz

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Nov 12, 2019
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Davidson
Wanted to start a thread to get the non-conference NCAA Tournament resume talks going. Dayton and VCU have done their fair share to get us back to that 3+ Bid League status, and a lot of other teams are knocking at the door, but we're missing a big win or two to get us more solidly on the bubble (rankings are Kenpom).

In with some room to breathe

Dayton:
Good Wins (#56 Virginia Tech, #68 Georgia), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#40 Saint Mary's, #30 Colorado)
VCU: Good Wins (#33 LSU), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#51 Wichita St. on the road)

Some work to do

Saint Louis:
Good Wins (#79 Belmont), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#14 Auburn, #76 Kansas St.)
Rhode Island: Good Wins (#80 Alabama), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#61 Providence, #90 Western Kentucky)
Richmond: Good Wins (#57 Wisconsin), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#80 Alabama on the road)
George Mason: Good Wins (#89 New Mexico St.), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#49 TCU on the road)
Duquesne: Good Wins (None), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (None)

It feels like we have 3 or 4 teams that are right on the cusp but need another good win or two to start getting looks on the bubble. I think Saint Louis has the best shot at this point with a semi-neutral site game against Auburn as well as a neutral site game against Kansas St., though the Billikens are further off the bubble from a Kenpom standpoint than Rhode Island, Richmond, or Duquesne. George Mason's win over New Mexico St. was nice, but I don't think it's going to be enough to get them in consideration without a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the Atlantic 10 (including wins over Dayton/VCU). Richmond might have a sneaky chance if it gets healthy soon and rolls through the A-10 with some big wins; I really think it depends how good Wisconsin ends up being (my guess is not great in the Big Ten, but the Badgers always seem to do better in league play). Rhode Island has had opportunities, but they haven't been easy opportunities -- Maryland and West Virginia on the road are games you're not going to win very often. Finally, I'm happy for Duquesne off to a 6-0 start, but no good winnable chances in non-conference play.
 

wgstl

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Nov 13, 2019
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Saint Louis: Good Wins (#79 Belmont), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#14 Auburn, #76 Kansas St.)
Rhode Island: Good Wins (#80 Alabama), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#61 Providence, #90 Western Kentucky)
Richmond: Good Wins (#57 Wisconsin), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#80 Alabama on the road)
George Mason: Good Wins (#89 New Mexico St.), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (#49 TCU on the road)
Duquesne: Good Wins (None), Bad Losses (None), Upcoming Chances (None)
I think Rhody is set up better than SLU. I dont see how we beat Auburn, and kstate will continue to fall as the season goes imo. Those of those games Rhody should win.
 

GrantLabedz

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I think Rhody is set up better than SLU. I dont see how we beat Auburn, and kstate will continue to fall as the season goes imo. Those of those games Rhody should win.
Fair point, I'm just afraid Providence's Kenpom ranking is still reflecting a lot of preseason expectations, and the Friars might not actually be a top 100 team. Western Kentucky is a solid team, but I don't know if that will be enough. At the end of the day, I think it will come down to 1 of these teams emerging from the pack and finishing a game or two ahead of the rest for 3rd place in the A-10 as well as getting a win or two over Dayton/VCU. If this whole group of teams just beats up on one another and everyone goes 12-6, it's going to be a dog fight in the A-10 tourney for a 3rd bid.
 

wgstl

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Fair point, I'm just afraid Providence's Kenpom ranking is still reflecting a lot of preseason expectations, and the Friars might not actually be a top 100 team. Western Kentucky is a solid team, but I don't know if that will be enough. At the end of the day, I think it will come down to 1 of these teams emerging from the pack and finishing a game or two ahead of the rest for 3rd place in the A-10 as well as getting a win or two over Dayton/VCU. If this whole group of teams just beats up on one another and everyone goes 12-6, it's going to be a dog fight in the A-10 tourney for a 3rd bid.

As much as I enjoy Davidson, I think they are the ones who could ruin the A10s chance of a 3rd or even 4th. I could see them stepping it up and making it harder for SLU or Rhode island. A10s 3-5 teams will be a lot better than they will get credit for which is unfortunate.
 

GrantLabedz

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As much as I enjoy Davidson, I think they are the ones who could ruin the A10s chance of a 3rd or even 4th. I could see them stepping it up and making it harder for SLU or Rhode island. A10s 3-5 teams will be a lot better than they will get credit for which is unfortunate.
Yup. (Davidson fan here) The Wildcats are frustrating as all hell for the conference's at-large chances because they always get better in league play, but the Selection Committee is never gonna give them credit for it when they lay an egg in the non-conference. I don't know if this year is any different. The eye test tells me Davidson looks pretty awful, but again, we've all seen this happen before, and then they get hot and finish 2nd or 3rd in the conference.
 

GrantLabedz

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Starting to see Richmond popping up in Bracketology -- Andy Katz had the Spiders in as a 12 seed, and Joe Lunardi has them "considered" right now. Lunardi also tweeted this about the Spiders last night, and it makes sense. Richmond's win over Wisconsin unfortunately hasn't looked better, and UR is going to need a few better wins to move the needle, unless the Badgers somehow go on a tear in conference play.

 

GrantLabedz

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As good as Saint Louis looked yesterday, there unfortunately are no such things as moral victories when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. I don't think SLU's non-conference showing will be strong enough for at-large consideration on its own. Billikens would need a ~3rd place finish in the conference with key wins over Dayton, VCU, etc., even if they beat Kansas St. later this month. Would have been nice to pull one out against Auburn. Felt like the Tigers made a few more shots (particularly from three), and free throw shooting obviously didn't help. Nice late game really from Saint Louis though.
 

adaisey

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Nov 13, 2019
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Love this thread. Richmond can't afford to squander a loss @ ODU this Wednesday. Not to look ahead, but we play Radford in DC on Sunday. Big week ahead for the Spiders.
 
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GrantLabedz

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Love this thread. Richmond can't afford to squander a loss @ ODU this Wednesday. Not to look ahead, but we play Radford in DC on Sunday. Big week ahead for the Spiders.
Duquesne demolished Radford on a neutral floor, so I’m hoping that’s not an issue. Agreed that ODU feels like the biggest “must win.” No shame in losing to a team like Alabama on the road. Old Dominion on the other hand will start taking the Spiders out of NCAA Tourney discussions.
 

GrantLabedz

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Also, Joe Lunardi released a Bracketology today (feels like a ton of rankings are coming out). He has Dayton as a 4 seed and VCU as a 9. For some reason I haven’t figured out the new format of the bracketology posts and can’t figure out where the first four out section is... I have to assume Richmond gets a mention somewhere. Anyone know where this is??

 

adaisey

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Have to beat ODU tomorrow as well as Radford on Sunday. At least have to compete @ Alabama, but a win would be nice.
 

e_parade

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Nov 12, 2019
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Cool - I'll take it with the expectation that VCU will win the A10 tournament so we get 4 teams in.
 

GrantLabedz

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Really discouraged by this weekend. Feels like any chance at 4 bids kind of went down the crapper once Saturday and Sunday went by. Obviously Dayton is still gonna be projected “in,” but Lunardi’s mist recent Bracketology had VCU as Last 4 In, and I can’t imagine Richmond or Duquesne are within 8 or 9 spots of the bubble after bad losses. I think the best shot we have is 3 bids this year: VCU, Dayton, and someone who hopefully emerges from the rest of the league. I know the start of the season has been exciting, but this was a reality check for all of us shouting “4 bid league.”
 

GrantLabedz

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Been awhile since we've had hoops, but luckily that comes to an end tomorrow. Here are the remaining important non-conference opportunities:

Richmond @ Alabama
George Mason @ TCU
Davidson @ Vanderbilt

Honestly, that last one probably doesn't carry much weight, but it would help the Wildcats to win another on the road nonetheless. I think Richmond really needs to beat the Crimson Tide on the road to alleviate that loss to Radford. I think that's going to go down as a Q3 loss according to NET, so a Q2 win on the road would be a big step in the right direction. Need to have an enormous shooting night away from home.
 

GrantLabedz

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Joe Lunardi's most recent bracketology has:

Dayton -- 3 seed
VCU -- Last Team In
Rhode Island -- First Team Out

Feels like VCU and URI have the best shot at an at-large right now, but I wouldn't completely count out Richmond just yet.
 
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adaisey

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Joe Lunardi's most recent bracketology has:

Dayton -- 3 seed
VCU -- Last Team In
Rhode Island -- First Team Out

Feels like VCU and URI have the best shot at an at-large right now, but I wouldn't completely count out Richmond just yet.
If Richmond can beat VCU tonight, things are definitely looking up. GW, Fordham, & La Salle all before matching up with VCU again. Plus we own the H2H tiebreaker on URI.
 

GrantLabedz

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Tonight's URI-VCU game has major NCAA Tournament implications. Both Rams teams were in Joe Lunardi's projected field today.