2022 Atlantic 10 Championship

Citizen X

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We were the pre-season favorite, but no longer. TeamRankings gives us a 13.4% chance to win it, only slightly higher than SLU, which must win 4 times to do it. Kenpom gives us a worse chance to win than SLU. Ha! A pox on both their houses. If the bad Bonnies show up, we're toast, but if the good Bonnies are there for all three games, we repeat as champs. I will be rooting for an appearance by the good Bonnies.
 

Citizen X

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Oh well, I hope our guys have a nice run in the NIT. They call it the Nobody's Interested Tournament, but it can be a nice swan song for a four-year run that's had many memorable moments.
 

Community Bank 3Pt Tee

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Going to take some time to collect my thoughts.

In the meantime, this a new position for us under Schmidt. Early A10 exit, no chance at the dance, but consensus seems to be a lock for the NIT. It sure feels like the season is over, even though is probably isn’t.
 

brownindians85

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I don't want to hear about NIT unless Schmidt is willing to trot out a starting lineup of Adams, Saizonou, Adaway, Coulibaly, Duro. Even if it's just until the 1st media TO. No point in going to the NIT for the 5 seniors, not knocking them, but saying take advantage of valuable tournament experience for the guys who will be here gong forward. I only say start Adaway because you might need one guy to make sure you aren't down 20 at the 16:00 mark. Otherwise you'll have 2016 Wagner F Seahawks part deux. Don't even care if we lose, get those guys experience in a win or leave scenario.
 

Community Bank 3Pt Tee

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I look at it as hospice for the season. Let it die in peace with one more game outside of what happened yesterday. I couldn’t care less about the result outside of that.

I just want the payout and the box checked that shows the relative “success” to a potential recruit.
 

Citizen X

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The Bonnies are 3.5 point underdogs. It is getting to be a rather comical thing (because it no longer matters) to watch this team repeatedly win Quad 1 games on the road and watch the Kenpom rating barely change. We're #80 now, but Virginia doesn't get much respect either at #72.
All these 8 remaining teams in the NIT are strong. This won't be easy, but we have our team back in form now and they are dangerous.
 

Bona03

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The Bonnies are 3.5 point underdogs. It is getting to be a rather comical thing (because it no longer matters) to watch this team repeatedly win Quad 1 games on the road and watch the Kenpom rating barely change. We're #80 now, but Virginia doesn't get much respect either at #72.
All these 8 remaining teams in the NIT are strong. This won't be easy, but we have our team back in form now and they are dangerous.
KP has a full season of data baked in now. Its like baseball with batting average. By the time you hit September, it is hard to move your average a ton in either direction. You have to rip off a .430 clip to do it. Same with KP. Ours went up to 79 last I looked on Monday, that was after 2 pretty good games. The fact that many teams are done now also can limit movement. Our value got over 10, for the first time in a long time though. Compared to last year, the offense is basically the same (110,109) but the defense is 98 vs 91 and that is why we are 50 spots lower this year. I would love to see our numbers without the VT game.
 
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Citizen X

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Yes '03, I've got all that, but it highlights what I consider a shortcoming in Kenpom. I do not know the specifics of how he weights his various components, but FG% is obviously an important factor. It should be, but the fact that players and teams have good runs and bad runs doesn't seem to be showing up. There's an obvious trend in Bona's performance as shown by Kenpom's rating moving from 100 on 8 Feb to 80 now. The reverse was true from 1 December to 8 February. If we were a stock, momentum traders would be shorting it during the slump and reversing that trade to go long shortly after the rally started. That is not the kind of information that Kenpom or the NCAA committee cares about, but--despite the fact that betting odds closely reflect Kenpom--I would think the oddsmakers would.
 

res

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At it's heart, Pomeroy is extremely simple. It comes down to points scored per offensive possession and points allowed per defensive possession. That's it. He doesn't care a fig about FG% or any other stat, except in how they affect points per possession. Points can come off a 3, a 2 or a FT, but to Pomeroy a point is simply a point, no matter how obtained. He reports a whole bunch of stats, but they're all outputs of the model, not inputs used to calculate his ratings. To me, that's the absolute beauty of it.

The sophistication of the model is reserved for how to adjust these basic points per possession to reflect the strength of the individual opponents and that's where the heft of mathematical statistics is employed.

As to trends, X, to the extent they are real, they are usually discernible only after they occur. It's as true for basketball as it is for the markets. There are lots of "random walks" masquerading as trends out there. Not telling you anything you don't know, of course...
 

Bill Russell

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The sophistication of the model is reserved for how to adjust these basic points per possession to reflect the strength of the individual opponents and that's where the heft of mathematical statistics is employed.
This, res, is my issue with KenPom. With the seemingly infinite factors impacting rosters, games, officiating, etc. over the course of a season, I can’t trust any statistical measurement to adequately evaluate 350+ teams.

Call me a simpleton, but I prefer a better-regulated RPI. Set some basic, universal scheduling requirements for all of D1 and let the stone cold results do the talking.
 

Citizen X

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We're verging on an academic discussion, which is the last thing we want. However, it's good to know that some highly significant academic research has been done in the subject. Anyone interested can get a taste of how deep this goes from the grand puba of fractals, Professor Benoit Mandelbrot:

I'm guessing he would have shorted Bona right after the loss to Northern Iowa.
 
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