2020 Atlantic 10 Tournament (March 11-15, Brooklyn, NY)

SBUnfurled

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We're less than a month away, and it's never too early to start talking A10 Tourney scenarios/seedings/matchups, and anything else going on in Brooklyn that weekend. These are odds through games of Feb. 12. Let's keep rolling.

A10SeedProbs2_13_20.png
 
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Bona03

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I keep a thread over on the A10 board you guys can check out
 

Jive36

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I have a dumb formatting question but wouldn't it look nicer if the team names on the right lined up better with the seed lines. I think I get how/why you are doing it the current way. It just might be easier on the eyes if Davidson was actually on the 8 line rather than up on the 6/7 line but might be harder in practice to make that happen.
 

BonaCommenter

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I have a dumb formatting question but wouldn't it look nicer if the team names on the right lined up better with the seed lines. I think I get how/why you are doing it the current way. It just might be easier on the eyes if Davidson was actually on the 8 line rather than up on the 6/7 line but might be harder in practice to make that happen.
It's for average seed for each team. That's why Mason/GW/UMass are all crammed together. I think this graphic is kind of a choose-your-own-adventure type deal of what seed you think will go to each team realistically.

God, I cannot wait for A10 weekend, feels like the damn Super Bowl every year. Already getting to Brooklyn on Thursday morning and not leaving until Sunday night, no matter what. I think it's a good problem to explore the city on Thursday if we get the double bye. I'd rather do that than watch us play La Salle or some other limpdick that we could possibly choke against if the guys start out slow.
 
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SBUnfurled

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I have a dumb formatting question but wouldn't it look nicer if the team names on the right lined up better with the seed lines. I think I get how/why you are doing it the current way. It just might be easier on the eyes if Davidson was actually on the 8 line rather than up on the 6/7 line but might be harder in practice to make that happen.
Davidson's average seed after simulations is 7.2, so those names line up with their average seed. I think this way helps show how close the races are for particular seeds, and how much separation other teams might have for other seeds. Also, Bill Russell has never liked anything that has come out after 1990, and can eat his own asshole!

EQq4rwAWoAET8RX.png
 

Bona03

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I stole this from myself so I think that is legal. Anyway, here are the remaining schedules. I like our chances at the double bye seeing how tough of a finish Duquesne has. VCU and Davidson do not have easy ones either. I am eyeing the 3 so we can avoid Dayton til the end. If we beat Richmond this week, we will be in a really good spot.

SEEDS
1. Dayton 12-0 (@VCU, Duq, @GM, Davidson, @URI, GW)
2. Rhode Island 11-2 (@Davidson, @Fordham, SLU, Dayton, @UMass)
3. Richmond 9-3 (GM, @SBU, @GW, UMass, Davidson, @Duquesne)
4. St. Bonaventure 9-4 (Richmond, Duquesne, @LAS, St Joes, @SLU)
5. Duquesne 8-4 (GW, @Dayton, @SBU, GM, @VCU, Richmond)
6. VCU* 7-5 (Dayton, @SLU, @UMass, GW, Duquesne, @Davidson)
7. Davidson * 7-5 (@ST Joes, URI, LAS, @Day, @Richmond, VCU)
8. Saint Louis* 7-5 (@UMass, VCU, St Joes, @URI, @GM, SBU)
9. George Washington 5-7 (@Duquesne, LAS, Richmond, @VCU, Fordham, @Dayton)
10. Massachusetts 4-8 (SLU, @Fordham, VCU, @Richmond, @LAS, URI)
11. George Mason 3-9 (@Richmond, St Joes, Dayton, @Duquesne, SLU, @Fordham)
12. La Salle 2-10 (Fordham, @GW, @Davidson, SBU, UMass, @ST Joes)
13. Fordham 1-11 (@LAS, UMass, URI, @ST Joes, @GW, GM)
14. Saint Joseph’s 0-12 (Davidson, @GM, @SLU, Fordham, @SBU, LAS)

* VCU 1-0, Davidson 1-1, SLU 0-1 vs group
 

Bonafanatic

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Unfurled just posted an updated graphic with the tourney predictions and it got me thinking....


When our weak A10 schedule came out, people on that other board absolutely lost their minds with rage. I recall one poster speculating the A10 set out to screw the team over.

Now that we're nearing the end of the season, I can't imagine a better situation for this team given how we started. We have an 80 percent chance of securing the double bye and a real chance of avoiding the 1 seed until Sunday. If we played any of the top teams even twice (no, Duquesne is most definitely NOT for real), we're probably laying bets for who our Thursday matchup will be.

While I definitely want to see an improved OOC, I am officially rooting for a garbage A10 schedule here on out. Lay the groundwork for an at-large out of the conference and then in the highly likely scenario we lay a couple rotten eggs against Niagara types and blow our at-large dreams goodbye, then focus on getting into the tournament the old-fashioned way.
 

Bona03

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I was someone who raged when the A10 schedule came out and I actually stand by it. Imagine a world where OO doesnt get hurt. How many non conference defeats do we have...2? Mayyyyyybe 3. I am gonna say 2 (Suny Amherst and Siena). So lets say we roll into A10 at 11-2. Our NET and other metrics probably have us at least 20 spots higher and then we would have the opportunities to beat Dayton, VCU, URI...etc. (See Davidson and SLU, who have decent NET numbers and are not 30 spots better than us) I can see a situation where we are where Rhody is right now. We dont know how the A10 record plays out with a different schedule but we are at the point where we should be at least hoping to be a bubble team the next couple years. The A10 did not help us out there. Granted it worked out since we did the next best thing and stomped the teams we have needed to so far but that doesnt change the facts.

We were put into a Brooklyn or bust situation in August. The non conference scheduling struggles aside, we depend on the A10 to take care of us a little bit and they stuck it to us. A garbage A10 schedule will never allow us to get an at large again. Next year we should get put into the top group and should get some meaty games. I am not on board of piling up garbage wins and hoping for the best in Brooklyn. Not with the team we look to have next year (and should have had this year)
 

BonaCommenter

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I'm so fucking sick of hearing about our weak A10 schedule. It's not our fault Mason is shitting the bed.

Duquesne almost got swept by Fordham (lost to them at home).

Same thing for SLU and UMass (OT win at home, road loss). La Salle took them to OT too.

Davidson lost at St. Joe's and got taken to OT at home against them. They also lost that 4OT game at GW.

VCU lost to Mason at home.

Our worst A10 loss is at home to Davidson. Other than the Fordham OT game and slow starts at Mason/St. Joe's, we've done exactly what we should have done against the bottom half of the conference. We got two more Pillow Fighters left, so if we get by them, we will have beaten all of the bad teams.
 

TullyBonnie11

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I'm so fucking sick of hearing about our weak A10 schedule. It's not our fault Mason is shitting the bed.

Duquesne almost got swept by Fordham (lost to them at home).

Same thing for SLU and UMass (OT win at home, road loss). La Salle took them to OT too.

Davidson lost at St. Joe's and got taken to OT at home against them. They also lost that 4OT game at GW.

VCU lost to Mason at home.

Our worst A10 loss is at home to Davidson. Other than the Fordham OT game and slow starts at Mason/St. Joe's, we've done exactly what we should have done against the bottom half of the conference. We got two more Pillow Fighters left, so if we get by them, we will have beaten all of the bad teams.
Duquesne beat Fordham both times, but I get the sentiment. They are SOMEHOW still being talked about on broadcasts as being contenders in the A10. I just do not see it. I do not believe they have had any significant injuries to explain some of their losses, which makes it even more frustrating.

On the contrary, we have not been talked about enough as being legitimate contenders (Outside of Dayton (it would take Schmidt's best coaching job and us hitting every shot), VCU (I think we can take them), and Davidson (it would take them missing from deep which doesn't happen vs us), we can definitely beat any team in the A10 (although Perkins from SLU scares me)). Plansky of ESPN almost seemingly intentionally omitted us on the Friday game when he was talking about the teams that could win the A10. Frustrating to continue to deal with media disrespect, intentional or unintentional. The national TV spanking vs Davidson was not good for the perception of this team. The average college basketball fan doesn't know that it was our worst showing this year (of course it was at home).

We are in 3rd place in a fucking 14 team league. That tells me that we are pretty good. Fuck, if Shoon played vs Rhody, we might win that game and be in 2nd behind Dayton. I hope the team can get a fire lit under them with perceived slights (Rothstein bullshit included) and say, "fuck it, let's win the whole damn thing."
 

Jive36

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Plansky of ESPN almost seemingly intentionally omitted us on the Friday game when he was talking about the teams that could win the A10.
Can you really blame him for omitting us? he had a front row seat for our worst healthy performance of the year and hadn't seen anything from us since. OO even said postgame that the team laid an egg vs Davidson. You don't get media support if get waxed like we did vs Davidson.
 

Jive36

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I'm so fucking sick of hearing about our weak A10 schedule. It's not our fault Mason is shitting the bed.
I'm tired of hearing about our weak schedule from Mason fans. They could have made out schedule decent if their team didn't underperform every year. They are trying to talk up their chances for next year guess what they need a stud unless they get a great grad transfer they are going to be bad again next year.

We lost to 4 teams that everyone had in the top 5 preseason at worst, and three of them were without our all conference center. The key to finishing in the double bye every year is not losing to bad teams, so far we haven't done that and almost everyone else has.
 

PYBonnie05

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Can you really blame him for omitting us? he had a front row seat for our worst healthy performance of the year and hadn't seen anything from us since. OO even said postgame that the team laid an egg vs Davidson. You don't get media support if get waxed like we did vs Davidson.
He knows Schmidt and what we’re all about. The small sample size (one game that he saw... he isn’t Dr. John and doesn’t know every A10 kid) and the standings should’ve been enough to mention us. I hope it just slipped his mind.
 

TullyBonnie11

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Can you really blame him for omitting us? he had a front row seat for our worst healthy performance of the year and hadn't seen anything from us since. OO even said postgame that the team laid an egg vs Davidson. You don't get media support if get waxed like we did vs Davidson.
I acknowledged the Davidson game's damage to perception. I'm just saying that the standings matter more than an outlier shitty performance. However, just to add a counterclaim, the following are games he has also had a front-row seat for relative blowouts: VCU at SLU and VCU at Rhody. I agree with PY that it may have slipped his mind. I hope it did.
 

3rdShayCripSet

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So what happen if Rhody, Bona, and UR all finish at 13-5? All other teams in the conference have 6+ losses, so they would be out of contention for the top four.

Rhody beat Bona
Bona beat UR
UR beat Rhody.

I assume it would be the team with the best win/ best record vs. top teams, but all teams lost to Dayton. Richmond is 1-2 vs. top 4, Bona is 1-2 and Rhody would be potentially be 1-3 (with a loss to Dayton).

If that was the case, Richmond couldn't finish ahead of us because of the H2H, so with that scenario, would we be the two seed?
 

Bona03

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So what happen if Rhody, Bona, and UR all finish at 13-5? All other teams in the conference have 6+ losses, so they would be out of contention for the top four.

Rhody beat Bona
Bona beat UR
UR beat Rhody.

I assume it would be the team with the best win/ best record vs. top teams, but all teams lost to Dayton. Richmond is 1-2 vs. top 4, Bona is 1-2 and Rhody would be potentially be 1-3 (with a loss to Dayton).

If that was the case, Richmond couldn't finish ahead of us because of the H2H, so with that scenario, would we be the two seed?
You came to the correct conclusion but got there the wrong way. You are correct that everyone would be 1-1 so then you go to the highest common opponent, which is Dayton. We would be 0-1 as would Richmond and URI would be 0-2. URI would be the 4 and then we would win the tb with Richmond due to our head to head win. I am not 100% this is how it would work but I think it is so.
 
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BonaCommenter

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So what happen if Rhody, Bona, and UR all finish at 13-5? All other teams in the conference have 6+ losses, so they would be out of contention for the top four.

Rhody beat Bona
Bona beat UR
UR beat Rhody.

I assume it would be the team with the best win/ best record vs. top teams, but all teams lost to Dayton. Richmond is 1-2 vs. top 4, Bona is 1-2 and Rhody would be potentially be 1-3 (with a loss to Dayton).

If that was the case, Richmond couldn't finish ahead of us because of the H2H, so with that scenario, would we be the two seed?
I think we'd be the #2 seed, unless Rhody were to beat Dayton. All three teams are 1-1 against each other, the technical term for this is called the Spiderman meme.

Next step is tiebreakers against the best teams. Richmond/Bona's are 0-1, Rhody would be 0-2 against Dayton, so Rhody drops to 4.

Then, you go back to Richmond/Bona's and head-to-head, which we now have obviously. So we're the #2 and Richmond is #3.

2 vs. 3 seed really isn't that big of a difference. The clusterfuck at 5-8 means you have no clue who you'll play until the regular season ends. You still fortunately avoid Dayton potentially until Sunday. The one upside of the 2 seed is you get a few extra hours of rest. Don't forget that the second semifinal is at 3:30 pm on Saturday. The 2 seed plays Thursday at 6 pm, the 3 seed plays at 8:30. It can be a tight turnaround to play until almost 11 pm, then play like 16 hours later. Don't forget that after the 2016 OT heartbreaker, Davidson got WASHED in the semifinal against VCU, presumably because of dead legs playing 45 minutes.
 
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Jive36

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We can talk a lot about the A10 schedule makers and how unbalanced some of the SOS stuff was this year, but the last weekend is going to have major seeding implications.

VCU @ Davidson, Bonnies @ SLU, Richmond @ Duq will likely decide 3-8 seeding yes the double byes could be decided but there will be tiebreakers decided on the last day.

Even on the bottom half of the bracket Joes vs LaSalle, Fordham vs Mason will likely decide who pillow fights and the matchups in the pillow fight.

Not that we would ever throw a game but the picture will be pretty clear by the time we take the floor vs SLU so if there were a matchup we really wanted to avoid we probably could. There is still a lot of basketball before we get to the lose to get a more favorable matchup point but it is worth noting.

Edit: Just to follow up on that last thought I'm surprised the league doesn't play all those games in the same window to avoid that issue similar to how several pro leagues handle the final day of the season.
 
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3rdShayCripSet

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I think we'd be the #2 seed, unless Rhody were to beat Dayton. All three teams are 1-1 against each other, the technical term for this is called the Spiderman meme.

Next step is tiebreakers against the best teams. Richmond/Bona's are 0-1, Rhody would be 0-2 against Dayton, so Rhody drops to 4.

Then, you go back to Richmond/Bona's and head-to-head, which we now have obviously. So we're the #2 and Richmond is #3.

2 vs. 3 seed really isn't that big of a difference. The clusterfuck at 5-8 means you have no clue who you'll play until the regular season ends. You still fortunately avoid Dayton potentially until Sunday. The one upside of the 2 seed is you get a few extra hours of rest. Don't forget that the second semifinal is at 3:30 pm on Saturday. The 2 seed plays Thursday at 6 pm, the 3 seed plays at 8:30. It can be a tight turnaround to play until almost 11 pm, then play like 16 hours later. Don't forget that after the 2016 OT heartbreaker, Davidson got WASHED in the semifinal against VCU, presumably because of dead legs playing 45 minutes.
Interesting stat. The 3/6 seeds ALL lost their next game from 2013-2018.

Davidson won tourney in 2018 (knocked us out) as the#3 seed, and SLU won last year as the #6.

So if I were a betting man, either we winning the tourney as the #3 seed (if we get there) or whoever knocks us out is winning the whole thing...But let's beat
Duquesne first...