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Atlantic 10 Bracketology (2/15): GW and VCU fall, but is St. Bonaventure finally in the mix?

This series takes a weekly look at which teams in the A-10 have the potential to be selected into the NCAA tournament. Updated every Tuesday morning, these projections are based off of non-conference and conference performances, as well as projections from the experts. 

KEY: NR (not ranked), N/A (not updated)

All projections based on if the season ended today.

Locks

Dayton Flyers (21-3, 11-1 A-10)

ESPN: 4 seed | CBS Sports: 4 seed | NBC Sports: 4 seed | SI.com: 4 seed

Dayton certainly looks to be the best team in the Atlantic 10, and appears bound for yet another NCAA tournament appearance. The Flyers not only boast the best record in the conference, but were ranked 15th in the AP top 25 this week. Archie Miller has his team playing its best basketball of the season, as evidenced by the play of guard Charles Cooke, one of the candidates for A-10 Player of the Year. The Flyers get interesting matchups this week against St. Joe’s and St. Bonaventure, two bubble teams that could seriously benefit from a win over Dayton. Regardless of the outcome, Dayton’s lock status shouldn’t change next week.

On the Bubble

VCU Rams (18-7, 10-2 A10)

ESPN: 10 seed | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: Last Four In | SI.com: Last Four In

This week’s loss to UMass was not what the Rams needed. Will Wade’s team falls to the bubble this week after dropping two of their last three games following a perfect start in A-10 play. The good news is that VCU rebounded well with a dominant win over Saint Louis this weekend and appears to be back on track. Still, this team cannot afford too many more screw ups at this point in time. Games against middle-of-the-pack Richmond and Rhode Island this week gives VCU the opportunity to jump back into the “lock” column.

St. Joseph’s Hawks (21-4, 10-2 A10)

ESPN: 10 seed | CBS Sports: Last Four In | NBC Sports: 9 seed | SI.com: 9 seed

At 21-4 on the year, St. Joe’s is getting respect from nearly every expert in the rankings. While the Hawks may not have a “signature” win (George Washington would be the closest), their victory count ties Dayton for most in the conference. However, this team is still walking on thin ice. Without multiple quality wins to fall back on, St. Joe’s can’t afford to lose more than two games the rest of the conference season. They get a huge opportunity this week when they host Dayton in what could be THE signature win that this team needs to make the NCAA tournament. It should be a fun one to watch.

George Washington Colonials (18-7, 7-5 A10)

ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: First Four Out | NBC Sports: Next Four Out | SI.com: NR

GW had a rough week. Two losses to St. Joe’s and St. Bonaventure have the Colonials reeling in the rankings as the once “lock” team is now struggling to stay afloat. Now while this may be a bit melodramatic, the reality is that GW really needs to win both of their games this week. Matchups against Duquesne and La Salle are hardly games to sweat about, but the Colonials simply cannot afford to lose here. Things just got a lot more dicey for the boys from D.C.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (17-6, 9-3 A10)

ESPN: Next Four Out | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: Next Four Out

Bona fans, as evidenced by the experts’ rankings this week,  your team is officially back in bracket contention.

The Bonnies picked up a huge win this week over George Washington, which marks their fifth victory in a row. Jaylen Adams has continued to play top-notch basketball and is stroking it from beyond the three-point line, going 17-33 (51.5%) over the win-streak. St. Bona currently has the fourth-best record in the conference.

Yet despite all that, the fate of their season rests in the balance of a matchup at Dayton this Saturday. If the Bonnies are remarkably able to pull off this upset, it would do wonders for their tournament fate, likely pushing them to the right side of the bubble. This game is a must-watch.