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Atlantic 10 Bracketology (2/1): St. Joe’s is rising, but is George Washington still “in”?

This series takes a weekly look at which teams in the A10 have the potential to be selected into the NCAA tournament. Updated every Tuesday morning, these projections are based off of non-conference and conference performances, as well as projections from the experts. 

KEY: NR (not ranked), N/A (not updated)

All projections based on if the season ended today.

Locks

Dayton Flyers (18-3, 8-1 A10)

ESPN: 5 seed | CBS Sports: 5 seed | NBC Sports: 6 seed | SI.com: 5 seed

With wins over SLU and La Salle this week, Dayton has put itself in very good position for an NCAA tournament run. The Flyers are now ranked #24 in the nation and have won each of their last six. The experts seem to have them hovering around the 5/6 seed range, which would likely be the highest seed of any A-10 team. Baring a screw-up this week against George Mason, Dayton should remain in this position come next Tuesday’s rankings.

VCU Rams (16-5, 8-0 A10)

ESPN: 9 seed | CBS Sports: 10 seed | NBC Sports: 8 seed | SI.com: 10 seed

What more is there to say about these Rams? They just keep on winning. With an eleven game win streak still in the works, VCU has looked darned near unbeatable over the last week or so. Will Wade’s team has the opportunity to take the tourney by storm, especially with one of the top-ranked defenses in the nation. A win over La Salle this week wouldn’t do much, but if the Rams beat George Washington on Saturday, I’d expect them to be in the 6/7 seed range in next week’s rankings.

On the Bubble

St. Joseph’s Hawks (18-3, 7-1 A10)

ESPN: 11 seed | CBS Sports: Last Four In | NBC Sports: Last Four In | SI.com: Last Four In

In pretty much any conference, an 18-3 record would warrant a surefire spot in the bracket rankings. However, because St. Joe’s does not yet have a signature win, they aren’t getting the respect that their record demands. Never the less, some of the experts do now have the Hawks in their rankings. With games this week against St. Bonaventure and Fordham, St. Joe’s has to keep on winning to retain the status quo.

George Washington Colonials (16-5, 5-3 A10)

ESPN: First Four Out | CBS Sports: Last Four In | NBC Sports: First Four Out | SI.com: First Four Out

A loss this week to Richmond was very unfortunate for the Colonials, who once were a lock for the tournament. Sure, it was nice to get a rebound win over George Mason, but GW is likely going to need a key win before the end of the season to boost them over the edge. This week is huge for George Washington, as they take on Davidson at home, then VCU on the road. The former would only inch them closer off the bubble, but a win over VCU would count as that second quality win this team so desperately needs.

Outside Looking In

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (13-6, 5-3 A10)

ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: NR

Only wins over both St. Joe’s and SLU this week would keep the Bonnies in the rankings next Tuesday. Unfortunately for St. Bona, there are simply too many bad losses on their resume. If no tournament berth, they are pretty close to a lock for the NIT.

Davidson Wildcats (12-7, 4-4 A10)

ESPN: NR | CBS Sports: NR | NBC Sports: NR | SI.com: NR

Wins over GW and Duquesne this week would keep the Wildcats in the picture, but if not they’ll be saying bon voyage. Only a superhero can save Davidson now, and that guy might be Jack Gibbs.

Bon Voyage…

Richmond Spiders (11-9, 3-5 A10)

The loss to St. Bonaventure this week does the Spiders in as tourney contenders. No fear, Spiders fans. An NIT berth likely lies ahead.