This series takes a weekly look at which teams in the A-10 have the potential to be selected into the NCAA tournament. Updated every Tuesday morning, these projections are based off of non-conference and conference performances, as well as projections from the experts.
KEY: NR (not ranked), N/A (not updated)
All projections based on if the season ended today.
Locks
Dayton Flyers (22-6, 12-4 A-10)
ESPN: 7 seed | CBS Sports: 6 seed | NBC Sports: 7 seed | SI.com: 8 seed
Once considered the lone top dog of the A-10, Dayton’s recent skid has experts reconsidering their seeding. The Flyers have lost three of their last four, including their most recent game to URI by nine points. For Archie Miller, this has to be a cause for concern. While Dayton remains a sure lock for the NCAA tournament, another bad loss or two could place them as a bottom half seed later this March. Look for them to respond tonight against Richmond with a resounding win to set up a primetime matchup with VCU for their final game of the regular season. A win in the ladder would signify to the committee that Dayton, the once #15 team in the nation, is back.
St. Joseph’s Hawks (24-5, 13-3 A10)
ESPN: 8 seed | CBS Sports: 8 seed | NBC Sports: 7 seed | SI.com: 8 seed
With two wins this past week, St. Joe’s moved into a tie with VCU for first place in the conference. DeAndre’ Bembry has been nothing short of studly, throwing down reverse jams and posting near double-doubles on a nightly basis. The Hawks might have the most versatile and athletic lineup in the A-10, as evidenced by the combo of Bembry and this season’s emergence of Isaiah Miles as a top scoring threat. St. Joe’s is in a great place right now, and could enter as one of the favorites to run away with the A-10 Tournament title.
On the Bubble
VCU Rams (21-8, 13-3 A10)
ESPN: 10 seed | CBS Sports: First Four Out | NBC Sports: First Four Out | SI.com: First Four Out
Following a very uncharacteristic loss to George Mason, VCU responded with a big win over George Washington to keep them in the tourney race. The Rams are still a bubble team, some have them in, but the majority believe they still have a bit of work to do before they are considered a sure fire lock. VCU needs to beat Davidson this week, then at least give Dayton a solid run. Assuming the Rams get a win or two in Brooklyn, they should be in fairly good shape for the NCAA tourney, but nothing is certain yet. This next week is likely going to be a stressful one for Rams fans everywhere.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies (20-7, 12-4 A10)
ESPN: First Four Out | CBS Sports: First Four Out | NBC Sports: Last Four In | SI.com: First Four Out
The Bonnies appear to be on par with VCU at this point. Both have a collection of decent wins, but still need to prove a little more before they can convince the committee that they’ve earned a spot in the Dance. SBU closes out the season vs. St. Joe’s and at SLU, the former of which would be a huge resume booster. If St. Bonaventure is able to beat the Hawks, they should bump themselves to the right side of the bubble. This of course comes with the clause that they don’t screw up horribly in the conference tournament. We’ll see what they can do over the next two weeks.
Outside Looking In
George Washington Colonials (21-8, 10-6 A10)
ESPN: Next Four Out | CBS Sports: First Four Out | NBC Sports: Next Four Out | SI.com: NR
Despite a difficult loss to VCU this week, the GW still hangs on the edge of making the NCAA tournament. All experts seem to agree with the fact that the Colonials, while having cooled down, can still make the Big Dance if they have a good showing at the A-10 Tourney. As it stands, they look to be a #5 seed in Brooklyn, where they will likely need to win two games, at the very least. Still, they need to take care of business against George Mason and Davidson to close out the year. Their chances may be less than 50-50, but don’t count out Colonials just yet.
