Head Coach: Anthony Grant (149-72); 8th season
Theme song: Missing Piece by Vance Joy
Last Season: How do we quantify Dayton’s season? They finally got DaRon Holmes to the NCAA tournament and won a game—Holmes individually solidified himself as an all-time A10 great with a second-team all-American selection. Anthony Grant added what was needed around Holmes and achieved something their fans had been waiting five seasons for. On the surface, that’s more than enough for most teams in the Atlantic 10.
When you dive deeper, it becomes a little more embarrassing: the Feb.9 matchup against VCU specifically, where the Flyers lost a 49-47 slugfest to their overlords. Despite the officials gift-wrapping Dayton foul calls and holding the Rams to 24% shooting from three, the Flyers somehow couldn’t win with everything in their favor.
Two games later, Fordham, coming off an 18-point thrashing against St. Bonaventure, rolled into UD Arena and kept the game close (for some, a little too close) until DaRon Holmes had to bail them out. Late-season losses to Loyola and George Mason certainly didn’t help things, and the Duquesne loss in the A10 tournament confirmed to me that Dayton is the Pittsburgh Steelers of the league:
They need high-end talent to bail them out of sticky situations to win.
Malachi Smith tearing his ACL seven minutes into the season didn’t help (more on him later). Still, Dayton had a matchup advantage in every aspect and was beaten down like in 2023. Duquesne let Holmes do everything, shut down his helpers, and destroyed the Flyers 39-26 on the glass.
With all their resources and boasting one of the best players the A10 has seen in the last 15 years, Dayton found another way to humiliate themselves at the worst possible time, failing at claiming something rightfully theirs.
Arrivals: Zed Key*, Posh Alexander*, Jacob Conner (Marshall), Hamad Mousa (F), Amael L’Etang (F)
Departures: DaRon Holmes, Kobe Elvis (T), Zimi Nwokeji (T), Petras Padegimas (T), Koby Brea (T)
Returnees: Nate Santos, Malachi Smith, Marvel Allen, Enoch Cheeks, Brady Uhl, Isaac Jack, Javon Bennett, Jaiun Simon
Potential Strengths: Normally, when discussing Dayton, one points to their overwhelming size in every position. This season, the best advantage the Flyers will have is the speed this team has. Anthony Grant has done a near 180 with how he put this roster together; last year, it was all about their super-skilled frontline. Now? It’s one of the smaller Dayton teams we’ve seen recently.
The first attempt at replacing Holmes comes from a few big guys: first, graduate transfer Zed Key from in-state rival Ohio State arrives in Dayton. Key was a critical piece for the Buckeyes in their tournament runs under Chris Holtmann with his physicality down low. History dictates Key to be an exceptional rebounder, though his overall numbers took a hit last season: he went from being a top-20 offensive rebounder on Kenpom to barely grabbing two offensive rebounds per game last season. His numbers should jump across the board with the change of scenery in an inferior conference.
While Isaac Jack will likely settle back into his backup role, two freshmen could be in play for real opportunities in the frontcourt this season. Hamad Mousa is fresh from the NBA Academy in the Middle East and has a very well-rounded skill set. Most reports from local informants are raving about his abilities, so expect him to see some honest minutes immediately.
Frenchman Amael L’Etang is also receiving early praise this preseason. The 7’1” import averaged 13.8 points per game and ten boards in the U-21 league in France, making him formidable under the basket. With the current rotation set to shape up, I give the two freshmen the edge over Jack because the freshman could offer more.
Dayton’s strength will come from its heavy guard rotation, headlined by Posh Alexander, one of the best incoming transfers in the A10. While historically streaky, Alexander is excellent as a creator, with 4.7 career assists per game. He’s also a fantastic defender, leading the Big East in steals all four years between St. John’s and Butler.
His ability to push the pace for Dayton will be critical. This season’s theme is all about speed, and no player better epitomizes that than Alexander. Javon Bennett will certainly be part of this tempo-pushing guard rotation, giving Dayton another intelligent ball handler.
A player who I’m excited about is Marvel Allen, a former Georgetown commit who is finally coming off his redshirt. At 6’4”, Allen is poised to play off the ball as a wired scorer. He’ll immediately be viable from all three levels, with plenty of clean looks set for himself and others.
The big fish is likely to be Nate Santos after a breakout campaign last year. The third-team all-conference selection from a year ago will now be a headliner in Dayton’s offense. Santos’ 42% from three-point land is likely to carry over with better spacing, and with the faster tempo, he’ll be a force in transition. Santos is quick enough to go off the dribble at his size, beating virtually anyone he wants to create space for a shot. He, Alexander, and Allen will likely lead Dayton in most offensive categories as the season progresses.
Dayton’s defense will be full of switching, blitzing screen actions, and trapping. Grant has a team capable of swarming to the ball at all times on the perimeter with great hands, which can generate high steal totals and transition opportunities.
A key contributor on defense will likely be Jacob Conner, a transfer from Marshall and a Dayton native. Conner’s career DBPM is +1.8 in two seasons at Marshall. He’s incredibly versatile on that side of the floor, with unlimited switching abilities and sound on the ball. Conner stays out of the way for the most part on offense, knocking down threes above 30% for his career.
Like VCU, the Flyers will be a very entertaining group. They’ve got some serious speed, versatility, and multiple ways to hurt opponents. It won’t shock me if the Flyers are one of the top teams in Kenpom’s adjusted tempo metric or the leader in fast break points in the A10. Dayton has weapons aplenty and can score points in a hurry.
Potential Weakness: A concern that looms for me is Malachi Smith’s health. For the second straight season, Smith’s performance was hampered by injuries, culminating in a torn ACL that sidelined him entirely. Matt McCall tweeted that he’s essential, though I beg to differ. With his past health, how many lingering effects will he have in the game? Coming back from an ACL tear isn’t the most straightforward injury to come back from; in fact, it may be one of the hardest. By year’s end, I expect him to be out of the rotation and a likely portal candidate.
Offensively, Dayton will have to find new ways to generate offense without Holmes bailing them out of ugly possessions. Several candidates will likely step up—Santos will be asked to do much more than he did last year, along with the other collectives I named. This has been said before, and I will repeat it: Dayton has become reliant on high-end talent, bailing them out of situations they should never be in. While it’s good that there is a baseline, relying on talent alone is a risky proposition.
Anthony Grant’s status as the head coach is another thing that has been a sensitive talking point for the last few years, to which I say this: everything I said in last year’s preview that could’ve been a weakness was fixed. Outside of Smith, the team was pretty healthy, and all the pieces fit around Holmes. Grant bringing the Flyers to the tournament for the first time since 2017 has earned him some slack regarding job security. Through his charity work, he’s also a visible figure in the Dayton community and is a true representative of Dayton University.
That being said, Grant’s postseason success, or lack thereof, is beyond frustrating to witness, even as an outsider to the program. Grant’s history at Dayton hasn’t changed in how their seasons go: they start ridiculously hot, lose games they shouldn’t to teams they are superior to, and implode late. Sure, they made the NCAA tournament and won a game, but it was by the skin of their teeth in a fantastic comeback to a team they should’ve led the entire game.
What cannot happen is Dayton s***ing their pants come the postseason, where they get thrown around like they did against Duquesne, collapsing to VCU in 2023 or manhandled by Richmond a few seasons ago. Oliver Purnell remains the last Dayton coach to hoist the A10 tournament trophy, which was in 2003. Dayton’s late season was so bad they lost grip of the regular season title, for which they paid the price. If a similar sort of thing happens AGAIN, then maybe the administration needs to have a serious talk about the direction of their program.
Outlook: Expectations at this program will never change. At a minimum, Dayton must make the NCAA tournament. Their late-season collapses have become a litany of adjectives, but Grant continues to churn out 20-plus win seasons, keeping tempers at bay. What excites me this season is Dayton’s new personnel on offense. Losing Holmes, Brea, and Elvis is a challenge but opens up opportunities for new players to step up and shine. Santos, Alexander, Allen, and Cheeks will pick up most of the workload, and Key can be an excellent big in the A10. The new style could get Dayton over the postseason hump and finally bring hardware back to Ohio. However, if the postseason goes sideways, heads will roll and only end one way.
Posted In: General Discussion